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Energy is obsolete!
What a weird thing to say, of course energy isn’t obsolete. However, all modern forms of producing significant energy are being made obsolete by the Rossi Energy Catalyzer or e-cat (I prefer just to call it a rossi).
Oil is obsolete! Oil is used for three things: energy, plastics and lubrication. However, oil is primarily used for transportation power. The rossi will completely replace oil for transportation. I expect that this process will not begin for another 10 years. (It takes a while to implement a new techology.) However, I suspect that the process will be nearly complete in 20 year. At that point, oil, as a form of energy, will be seen as obsolete.
Natural gas is obsolete! Natural gas is mostly used for home and industrial heat. Home heat will be the first thing to transfer to the rossi. The rossi directly generates heat. This will be an easy conversion. Initially I expect we will be able to buy a rossi boiler — a device that produces very hot water. Some homes are heated with water/steam in boiler systems already. However technology already exists industrially to provide instant hot water from a boiler, and to convert forced air furnaces to use a boiler core. I am hoping that five years from now I will be able to replace my furnace and hot water with a rossi.
The electrical grid is obsolete! It will take a little engineering, but no magic, to produce a home-use rossi that provides all of the energy necessary to run your house. I expect that a single unit will provide home heat, hot water and electricity. Industrial heating and electricity will be just as easy to produce. After all, the first rossi installation will be a 1 megawatt power generator.
Global warming, solved!
I know, there’s still significant debate about whether anthropocentric global warming is for real, whether the global warming we see is caused by human activity, but it no longer matters!
Think about it, oil for energy, the biggest cause of carbon emissions, will hardly be used in twenty years. Coal, the biggest producer of carbon emissions per kilowatt hour will no longer be used. Natural gas, obsolete! Propane, obsolete! (except maybe for back yard barbecues.) The remaining sources of greenhouse gases are insignificant against these biggies.
Dr. Rossi’s energy catalyzer, once implemented, is going to eliminate the vast majority of carbon emission sources. As such, when this technology is heard above the noise, I expect the sound to be deafening. Everyone who cares about global warming and everyone who is unsure but fears that the scientists are right is going to jump onto Dr. Rossi’s energy catalyzer like its going out of style.
What will happen to the price of oil?
Ok, so one day it dawns on the world that the rossi, the e-cat, is for real. This may happen when Dr. Rossi unveils his 1 megawatt power plant, which he hopes to reveal to the world in October. It may happen before or after that point. However, we will recognize it because the Rossi will make the front page of every significant news source.
From that day on, the price of oil will be driven by the rossi more than by anything else.
So I put my thinking cap on, and wonder how I would respond if I were an oil producer (a country, an oil company, the owner of oil producing property). I would quickly realize that my product has a limited shelf-life. How limited? Well, I expect that oil usage will not go down for the next five years.
- It’ll probably take about five years before homes and industry begin to heat with rossi power to a significant extent.
- It’ll probably take about ten years before we can easily buy rossi-powered cars.
- It’ll probably take about 20 years for the predominance of cars to be rossi-powered.
So the maximum life of the oil era will be twenty years, but in ten years the industry will begin to seriously wane.
However, if I had 50 years worth of product hiding in the ground that would become useless 20 years from now, what would I do? I’d try to sell it as fast as I could. If I also had competition with 50 years supply of product and a 20 year shelf-life, they would also be trying to sell their product as fast as they could. It result will likely be a bidding war.
I predict, therefore, that the price of oil will drop significantly as soon as the ramifications of Dr. Rossi’s technology are grasped.
This will be interesting. People will feel freer to use oil, because it is cheaper, but they will be resistant to buy new vehicles because they know the new vehicles will go obsolete. So clearly the automotive industry will be in for an interesting ride, but that’s a topic for another day.
What technologies will boom?
There are two kinds of people in this world, pessimists and optimists. When the pessimist, especially one who is directly associated with a power producing industry or country, looks at the rossi e-cat, I am sure that he sees unemployment and economic disaster. In honesty it is much easier to see what we will loose from Dr. Rossi’s technology than it is to see how we will gain. However, I believe that the gains will vastly outstrip the costs!
Here are some technologies that are being held back because they are too big of energy hogs, technologies that will blossom because of the rossi e-cat:
Greenhousing: Greenhouses are energy hogs. The use heat keep them warm, they use energy to humidify or dehumidify. Heaven forbid that you would want to cool one. However, in hot climates a cooled greenhouse may make a lot of sense. There are many products that just won’t grow at 50°c, 120°f. So if your locale experiences these kinds of temperatures, an air conditioned greenhouse is your only option. With the rossi, this is now reasonable.
Water purification/desalination: Fresh water is a huge problem in many places in the world! If you live by an ocean you understand the expression “water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink”. Inland locales may suffer from dirty or polluted water. One technology, distillation, can easily handle all of these problems; but it is very energy expensive. The other solution, less energy expensive but still prohibitively so is reverse osmosis filtering. With the rossi e-cat, even distillation will be quite a reasonable approach. The world will no longer need to worry about access to clean water.
Air conditioning: In the summer of 2003, more than 40,000 Europeans died in the heat wave (wikipedia.org: “2003 European heat wave”). But is an air conditioner really that expensive that we can’t have one in every home? I can go down to WalMart and pick up a small unit for under $100. But the things suck power! The power cost of air conditioning is irrelevant with the rossi e-cat! Air conditioning should take off like gangbusters!
Transportation: Planes, trains, automobiles, ships — for all of them a major expense is fuel. For air travel, about 40% of the ticket price goes straight to pay for fuel (http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/2246451). We are well aware of the cost of a car’s fuel — too well! However, I wonder what will happen when the cost of fuel becomes inconsequential. Will air travel take over for shipping? Will we see huge transport planes each carrying 100 inter-modal boxes across the ocean? Will the incredible power to weight ratios make flying cars a possibility? What about the jet pack, will it now be feasible? Transportation will change dramatically once the rossi settles in. It will be exciting times!
These are just one man’s thoughts. Especially in this area, I would love to see other people’s opinion of industries and technologies that will be freed up when energy becomes obsolete.
If you were king.
So what if you were the benevolent king of a desert country awash with oil? If oil as energy is obsolete, your country’s entire economy is obsolete. This could be a crisis! However, if you can convince your citizenry to adapt with the times, you may be able to navigate a way through all of this change.
First, you consider the short-term strategy — how can we get the most bang for our oil during the next 20 years? Other sources of oil, such as the Canadian tar sands, cannot be produced nearly as economically as your oil is. You can profit at $15 per barrel, whereas the Canadian tar sands cease to be economical at $60. What of the other oil providers? What is the optimal price for oil — from the prospective of your country’s bottom line? These are complex questions, but they must be asked, and with some research they can be answered rather accurately.
Then you decide to put all spare resources into making the future as bright as possible. But what does that look like? The desalination solution certainly looks promising. If water can be abundant, maybe agriculture can blossom. Maybe the desert can bloom. But your citizenry doesn’t know anything about farming. You’re going to have to bring in some expertise. Maybe you need to set up agriculture schools. Maybe you need to follow an expensive path to produce fresh water, and experiment with agriculture techniques.
Are there other strategies that would develop your economy? Well, you need desalinated water like crazy, so maybe you can become the world’s experts on desalination, and maybe you can become an exporter of that expertise. That sounds good.
But what about all of that oil? Can you leverage that resource even though it is worth very little any more? What about getting into plastics in a serious way? Maybe it would make sense if your country moved to exporting finished plastics rather than the oil used to make plastics. What about manufacturing plastic parts. That adds value. Here’s some real outside the box thinking — could you use our oil to make plastic, and use the plastic as a binding agent to turn your abundant sand into building material. Maybe you could make sand/plastic bricks. Maybe you could make sand/plastic cement. I don’t know, just thinkin’.
One of your neighboring countries has long expected that it would run out of oil, so it has been building up resorts. Their plans seem to be to make a living off of tourism. Maybe with the additional efficiency that the rossi technology brings to the table, people may finally have free time on their hands, tourism may be on the rise. And with air travel getting less expensive, there’s something to be said for this approach. You’ve got sand, sun, ocean. That’s a lot of raw material to make a tourism industry.
So you have a choice — be proactive and creative, and save your country a lot of grief, or stick your head in the proverbial sand and see your country run headlong into crisis. It is nice to get 20 years warning of the coming tsunami.
Return of the steam car
So what will the first rossi cars look like? If the car companies have it right, from the outside it’ll look exactly like one from the previous model year. However, look under the hood and you’ll see something like this:
Yes, I am convinced that there’ll be two classes of car companies, the first will incorporate existing technology such as that found at http://www.cyclonepower.com. The other companies will be trying to sell gas powered cars when the competition is selling rossis.
If I understand cyclone power’s engines correctly:
- Advanced production-grade prototypes exist, are working and tested.
- The design can be scaled from 5 horsepower to locomotive sized.
- The engines are smaller and involve fewer parts than gasoline engines.
- The transmission is eliminated.
- For much more detail check out http://www.cyclonepower.com.
The fact that this kind of technology already exists and is easily compatible with the existing car chassis significantly shortens the lifespan of the car company that is smart enough to get an exclusive with cyclone power.
How fast can the rossi get to production? Consider these factors:
- This technology has not been tested to the extremes that modern cars require.
- I am somewhat concerned about the “lubricated with water” model of this engine. I suspect that more engineering will be required to get a truly robust engine.
- Some changes will be called for because the rossi is quite different than the “burning fuel” model that the current cyclone engine is designed for.
- The manufacturing facilities for the mass production of this technology doesn’t exist yet.
- The technology is going to have to pass safety test, many of which haven’t been designed yet.
- Computerization, instrumentation and a lot of other subtle things will have to change to complete the rossi/cyclone system.
I am hopeful, however, that something can happen very quickly:
By end of:
Year 1: Dr. Rossi’s energy catalyzer gets serious notice (October?).
Year 2: Car company purchases Cyclone Power or exclusive rights.
Year 3: Car company perfects and seriously test the Cyclone solution (this is pretty hopeful, I think.)
Year 4: Show cars are presented. Government approvals are obtained. Yup, I bet it’ll take a year.
Year 5: The first production car will be brought to market — and with a sticker price that’ll scare most of us.
I really hope I’m wrong. I really hope that rossi-drive cars begin in the 2014 model year. But I’m not holding my breath.
How goes the car company?
Let me see, at some point the world is going to realize that the rossi e-cat is for real. What will they do? Well, I won’t be buying a new gasoline car if waiting a few years will get me into a gas-free, nuclear powered rossi e-cat car. It’ll probably take a while for people to figure this out, but it certainly won’t take long for auto sales to begin to droop. Not good for the car company.
But more, the car companies will have a lot of R & D work to do. There will likely be a bidding war for companies such as Cyclone Power Technologies. Anybody with heat engine engineering expertise will be in hot demand! Money will be flowing out of car companies like there’s no tomorrow.
I’ll be shorting car company stock.
However, when the first company comes out with a rossi-drive car, they will be sitting in the proverbial catbird seat. If I can buy a car from company A that requires no fuel, why would I buy a car from company B. The first company to bring out a rossi-drive car will be able to sell cars at an inflated price, and they won’t be able to keep them on their lots. That company’s stock will soar. The gap between the time that the first rossi car comes out and the time that company B finally gets a car out, there will effectively be only one car company in the world.
Will it really go like that? I really think that this is an exaggeration. I think of how the digital camera took some years to replace the film camera. I don’t think that people will really grasp the meaning of the nuclear powered car. I think that many will fear it. We may soon see a replacement motor for existing cars. Some may count on such a thing coming out.
The above is clearly an exaggeration, but though the pattern won’t be as strong as the exaggeration presents, the pattern will still be there:
- When Dr. Rossi’s energy catalyzer becomes known, car sales will fall.
- Car companies will have hefty R&D bills.
- Therefore, for the time between the fact that Dr. Rossi’s energy catalyzer becomes common knowledge and the time when the first car company comes out with a rossi-drive car, car companies will not do well.
- When the first car company comes out with a rossi-drive car, its stocks will soar, others will wane.
I think that car companies will be a microcosm of the rest of the economy. Once the Dr. Rossi’s energy catalyzer becomes known, the economy will realize the downside of this technology; once the technology matures it will prove to be a much brighter view than any of us expect. There will be a lot of applications that we don’t yet see.
What of airliners?
I’m sure that the airline industry would love to not have to buy fuel. But can the energy catalyzer really replace jet fuel? Lets do some calculations to see. Dr. Rossi’s current e-cat engine is 50cc and outputs 5 kw. A Boeing 747 requires about 65,000 kw of energy at cruising speed*.
Modern steam turbines such as those used in power plants are about 50% efficient, so we need about 130,000 kw worth of the current cells, or about 26,000 cells. Wow, that sounds like a lot! At 50cc, that is a total volume of rossi cells at 1.3 million cc, or about 1,300 litres, 325 gallons of rossi cells. Hey, that’s more manageable. A modern 747 can carry 63,500 gallons of fuel (240,370 L). Lets say that for every unit of energy catalyzer we need 10 units of other stuff (container, hydrogen, cooling system, shielding), that should be lots. The volume of all of that is 13,000 litres, about 5% of the size of the fuel load of a current plane. Not bad so far!
But what about the engines? Here’s what I know. The cyclone power engine is about half the size of an internal combustion engine, and steam turbines have a better size to weight ratio than piston based steam engines. So, while a steam turbine engine may be somewhat larger than current jet engines, they will probably not spin as fast, so they likely will not need as advanced of metallurgy as modern engines. Slightly larger, albeit less expensive, engines will be an easy trade off to make for having to pack only 5% of the “fuel”, and not have to refill for six months.
So the aircraft industry will fully benefit from Dr. Rossi’s energy catalyzer (e-cat) technology.
The next question is, “will existing planes be upgradeable to the energy catalyzer?” That’s actually a much more difficult question than all that. Will the rossi-cells be put in the current fuel tanks? How will the steam hoses be plumbed to the new engines? Will the aircraft structure hold the larger engines? Would the airplane manufacturers rather force airlines to buy whole new aircraft than allow them to upgrade the current ones? I don’t have all of the answers. If you have some, please share.
How small does it go?
Dr. Rossi is currently assembling a 1 megawatt power plant. Certainly BIG isn’t the challenge. But how small of an energy catalyzer is possible?
The Cyclone Power company has a five horse steam engine. Such would be quite appropriate for tasks such as lawn mowers and snow blowers.
But there is definitely a market for portable gasoline engines in leaf blowers and chain saws. Can e-cats and steam engines be built that small? Probably, hopefully. The biggest concern I have is packing around a half-gallon of very high pressure water. However there is another possible option — the stirling cycle engine. Stirling engines are heat engines that do not use a liquid. However, they are famous for not being fantastic in the power to size department.
There are a few things that can radically increase the efficiency of the stirling cycle engine:
- Using helium, rather than air, in the stirling engine produces better heat transfer, and better efficiency.
- Compressing the internal gas can make a whale of a difference. Highly efficient stirling engines contain gas at 500 psi.
- Copper is a lot better than aluminum at conducting heat, creating a more efficient engine, albeit a significantly more expensive one.
- A modified cam that more accurately reflects the theoretical stirling cycle can help a lot.
- A variety of mechanisms have been developed to increase the surface area of the cylinder(s) of the engine. (I have a patentable design that massively increases the surface area of stirling engine cylinders.)
While the stirling may never become noteable, I believe that Dr. Rossi’s e-cat engine will open up all avenues of heat engine research.
What about laptops? The e-cat cannot possibly be implemented in a laptop, can it? Well, maybe. The biggest challenge will be to make a small-enough container that can contain the nickel at very high temperatures. We don’t know exactly how hot the nickel must be, but it is clearly above 500°C (1000°F), and below 1453°C (2647°F). Can this be packaged in a suitable size for a laptop? Possibly. If the nickel powder was held in a modified vacuum flask, that might do it. But how do we extract the power? We certainly aren’t going to run a steam engine. How about the Seabeck effect? Effectively semiconductors can be used to convert heat into electricity. They aren’t very efficient, but they might be efficient enough for the task. (The inverse is used in electrical heat pumps for small portable fridges, and small water coolers.) It’ll take a lot of work, but it may be possible to harness the power of the e-cat in a size suitable for a laptop computer.
Cellphones? Not likely. However, rossi-power may give us relief even here. Consider wireless energy transfer. This budding technology allows a building to send power into any device wirelessly. It’s not very efficient, but if energy is virtually free, it might become a reasonable expectation that every public building offer wireless power services. It would be reasonable that our houses and cars provide wireless power services. Cellphones could be freed from the dead battery problem in all but the most remote places.
Even if you are an active camper, you may be able to have a small pack with technology like the laptop battery replacement described above, and have unlimited access to your cellphone and other portable devices.
Dry cell batteries? Maybe all of these batteries could be replaced by the same technology as described for cellphones.
Button batteries? Don’t get me started. I hate button batteries! I saw a single button battery in the store for sale for more than five bucks! Yet when I go on ebay, I can buy buttons in packs of 50 for 10 bucks (plus $20 shipping.) Hopefully button batteries will be replaced by wireless energy transfer too. However, button batteries are a great example of the cost of non-standardization. This will be a future post.
Hearing aids? I don’t expect that rossi’s e-cat will solve all problems.
A plea for standards
With every new technology we seem to have to wrestle with the question of standards. We seem to have learned the value of standards for digital media (VHS, CD, DVD, Blue-Ray). However, we have proven quite lousy at providing standards in many other areas.
I remember, for instance as a young man that North American cars used one of four styles of headlight: single beam round (two bulbs per side), single beam rectangular, double beam round (one bulb does both high and low beam) and double beam square. I remember having bulbs on both sides of my vehicle within about 30 miles of each other. I crawled along to the nearest service station and got replacement bulbs. Now I have a 2009PontiacMontanavan. It uses an H11 bulb. My local auto parts store advertises “super-bright” bulbs, but not for the H11 size — yet. I look at the rack of bulbs for sale. They are all nearly identical. They are different only in subtle ways that they attach to the car. If they could only limit their varieties to substantive changes, I could buy the super-bright bulb for my van. If both my bulbs burned out at the same time, well, if there was no large city nearby I’d be hooped for the night. Where I live, -40° is reasonably common. Hope I don’t get hooped on the wrong night.
Consider this other example. I can buy the common batteries: AAA,AA,C,D or 9V without any problem. But when one of my kids toys needs a button battery, I’m usually hooped. If I’m not, I often have to pay more for the battery than for the toy. Check this out:
Here is an ebay sale for 100 of ‘em at $11.50, that’s $0.11 per battery.
So what’s the deal, the retailer has REDICULOUS markup and should be shot, right? No! Because there’s about a million different sizes of button batteries, they sell so few of any size that they need to charge enough markup to account for the thing sitting around for a year. Further, when you finally find someone with the battery you need to get your kid’s dearest toy working again, you’ll pay the price.
What has this got to do with the energy catalyzer?
There are a whole bunch of places where standards will be useful in the new e-cat world.
- The e-cat cells themselves are a lot like batteries. They can reasonably be designed so that there are very few different variants of these cells, and each vehicle or generator uses a rack of ‘em.
- We are likely to end up with a bunch of really powerful electricity generators, like ones that will run our entire house. If we have a standard interface between the generators and our homes, RVs, etc., we may be able to pull the generator out of our RV, and use it for emergency power when our home generator breaks down. Maybe we will be able to plug our car into our house for emergency power. Who knows. Standards do create these flexibilities.
- As the technology matures other logical demarcations will surface. If these are standardized, we’ll all be better off.
Consider this tearjerker:
You’re at a lake in the middle of nowhere with your family. Your child takes desperately ill. A neighbor has a float-plane that doesn’t work because it is out of Rossi cells. If you try to four-wheel it out of there like you came in, your child will die. Between you and your neighbor you can scavenge from your own vehicles enough Rossi cells to get the plane going and save your child’s life. Works great in a world of standards, but not in a world of button battery engineering.
Wouldn’t this be fun?
I am sure that a steam engine with e-cat cores won’t be cheap. But I want lots of toys: personal watercraft, fishing boat, quad, snowmobile, etc. All of these toys require an engine, somewhere around 100 horsepower would be sufficient for each case. What if that 100 horsepower Rossi steam engine weighed under 100 pounds? What if it had a clean, simple standard interface? What if I could buy all of these toys without the engine, and I could buy one engine to run all of ‘em? I’d own a bunch of toys, that’s what. Man I hope that companies get bright enough to make something like this. Man I hope that governments get smart enough to push companies toward good sense.
Better than remote start!
I live up north. In these parts remote starts are highly valued so that the car can be a bit warm when you get in in the morning. Considering that Rossy’s e-cat needs to be heated up to a few hundred degrees, then the steam engine needs heating up, instant start will not be part of the new energy catalyzer world.
However, we will live in a world where energy is all but free. So why not just leave the engine running. What if the e-cat was kept at full operating temperature and there was a small secondary steam or stirling engine that keeps the battery charged? What if the secondary engine also could keep the interior temperature constant? If heat was called for, keep the car warm all night or all week. If cooling is called for, run the air conditioner as needed. How easy is that? How convenient is that?
It sure is nice to think of a world where energy is free.
The e-cat rhymes with what?
“History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Mark Twain
If history rhymes, what does it rhyme with? If there is any one feature that will dominate the arrival of Dr. Rossi’s energy catalyzer, it is obsolescence.
To compare it to the information revolution doesn’t really work. Though there is some amount of obsolescence, the typewriter, the mechanical adding machine, but obsolescence hardly dominates. The industrial revolution also is not dominated by obsolescence, so it also doesn’t do a good job of rhyming with the coming e-cat revolution. What about the invention of the digital camera? Well, it is an example of a new technology producing obsolescence, but it isn’t nearly big enough — it isn’t world changing.
What about the arrival of the automobile? Prior to Henry Ford’s mass produced internal combustion engine driven automobile, horses and buggies ruled the day. Being a blacksmith was a visible profession. Every town had stables where you could put up your horse. The horse was the foundation of transportation. Owning a horse was seen as essential. While horses have not truly gone obsolete, they have become a specialty at best. Wagons, stage coaches, the pony express — all have become features of museums and parades. The industries that supported them has all but disappeared.
From 1908, it took another forty years or more before cars became ubiquitous. In this way, I strongly expect that these two histories will not rhyme very well. To find history that rhymes with the pace of the upcoming change, I think we need to look at third world cultures that encounter first-world technology. This can produce change at breakneck speed. It can be nothing less than unsettling.
However, whether we compare to the rhyming of the invention of the automobile, or the rhyming of third-world countries encountering first-world technologies, it will clearly be messy for a while; but when the dust settles, it will settle on a more efficient and prosperous world. Those who have their eyes open will be able to weather the storm the best, and be in the best position to benefit from the transformation that is coming.
The Bogeyman is coming
When I talk with friends about Dr. Rossi’s e-cat technology, I frequently hear the fear, the expectation, that the big companies will never let it happen. There is a belief that free energy variants have been invented hundreds of times over the years, but they have been diligently quashed by oil companies.
I don’t believe it. I have personally checked out a half-dozen miraculous energy solutions whether they promise unbelievable gas mileage or simple free energy, and I have simply found them painfully wanting. Here are some examples of the failures I have seen:
- Buoyancy tube. I couldn’t believe this thing. There was an exhibition at the Vancouver (Canada) Science and Technology Centre. Upon entry to this thing, one was confronted by this 10 foot high 1 foot diameter foam-rubber band wrapped around some fake pulleys. There was a faux water tank on one side. The theory was that the water would buoy up the foam-rubber on one side, and the foam on the other side would still be heavy. It should spin, right? Why not? (Its nothing at all to do with friction.) I was with a mechanical engineer and an electrical engineer at the time. The mechanical engineer was sure it should work, and the electrical engineer could see that it breached the second law, but couldn’t figure out what the issue was.
- The Pogue carburetor. The Pogue carburetor was supposed to give unbelievable fuel mileage by vaporizing the gasoline rather than just atomizing it. When Honda came out with the cvcc engine one could see similarities to the Pogue theory. However, while the cvcc engine was somewhat more efficient it wasn’t earth shattering.
- Magnets on spark plug wires. Somebody sold my father a bill of goods. The theory was that this gizmo that had magnets and wires connecting ‘em was supposed to improve power and mileage — but not right away. You needed to burn a tank or two of gas first. They believed it so much that they offered a money-back guarantee! Believe it? Well, to help my father out, I carefully tested the speed of my car up a particular hill, then I put the device in and drove for a couple of tanks of gas, and tried it again. Oops, didn’t work. Shocking!
- Rare earth magnet gears. I lived inPentictonBritish ColumbiaCanada some decades ago. The paper presented a front-page story that a local fellow had tapped unlimited power. My father was pretty excited by the whole thing (after all the inventor had been a prisoner in a concentration camp). I checked it out. He had an interesting gear system that allowed one wheel to turn the other without physical contact using “powerful” rare earth magnets. He pretty much wore a hardhat because the oil companies was going to get him, but he couldn’t demonstrate that the thing works. Why? Because it doesn’t! A lack of physical link did not prohibit the generator under load to transmit the load back through the gears.
- Hydrogen in the carburetor. I can’t believe how easy it is to get super-mileage. Using electrolysis, you split water into hydrogen and oxygen. You then feed the hydrogen into the air in-feed of your car (whether carbureted or fuel injected). The hydrogen burns making your car much more efficient. Really? Free energy is that easy? Man the oil companies must lob off a lot of people.
So the bottom line, I don’t believe that the oil companies have yet had need to implement their death squad. Now that they finally have a need, maybe their assassins will be too rusty to pull off the task.
Faith in Science
I was reading a blog post in http://newenergyandfuel.com. One of the posts linked to a blog where the scientific community’s knee-jerk rejection of the energy catalyzer was discussed. What was of particular note was the fact that Dr. Rossi’s research was rejected by the journals. Not being one to be stopped, Dr. Rossi started his own journal. Well, that proves it, he’s obviously a hack, right?
Well, maybe. Or maybe the scientific community has become convinced that they know — that there is nothing new under the sun. But what happens when the world discovers that there is something new under the sun, that this new thing with the power to transform the world has been under the noses of the scientific community for 22 years?
I believe that, to some extent, an air of disrespect for science will be the result. I believe that this will have mixed results. It will allow absolute quackery, like perpetual motion and astrology. It will also at least end the “we are the experts” rejection of concepts like intelligent design. I know, you may conclude that I am whacked in the head, that the ideas that I call quackery are the ones that science should reconsider. I also know that many readers would die at the suggestion that intelligent design be given any ear. Great, share your opinion, this is just mine.
21st Century Careers
When I was a young adult the message was clear, “go into computers, that’s where the money is”. Turns out, that’s where my desire and talent was, so that’s what I did. But when Rossi’s energy catalyzer is discovered by the world, what careers will blossom? I can think of two.
The first is the mechanical engineer. Thermodynamics, of course, is going to be big. There will be a lot of engineering around heat to motion and heat to electricity conversion. But the secondary spin-offs in mechanical engineering will be huge as well. Of course cars and planes will have to be re-engineered. So will lawn mowers, home power systems, portable generators, outboard motors, and on and on. The industrial applications will be just as huge. But the third wave will be the stuff that just doesn’t make sense in our energy-expensive world. Will flying cars be possible? Will hovercrafts take off? What of robots? Its hard to say what will change, but a lot of it will require mechanical engineering.
The second is physics. This technology is going to create a buzz in the physics world. How does it work? But the whole world of low energy nuclear reactions will be experimented with every which way. Is there a more effective model than nickel + hydrogen? Is there an LENR model that produces electricity directly? Can a smaller LENR be produced allowing smaller devices to be directly powered. And what about all of the other phenomena that have been rejected as a knee-jerk like LENR has been? Is there a possibility that there is something to any of these things. There will be a period of time when the world of physics will be more willing to listen than they are now. However, that window will close, and not long after there is a dry spell where no new discoveries pop up.
I am interested in hearing if there are more careers that will blossom in response to the Rossi. I am also interested in thoughts you may have about the two careers discussed here.
What of the grid
When Dr. Rossi’s e-cat technology is released, the power grid will go through a lot of twists and changes, but it may not die.
I am sure that very early in the cycle, projects with heavy development bills will be abandoned, such as hydroelectric dams. The things cost millions of dollars, and are expected to pay for themselves over a 20 to 50 year life cycle. If energy is becoming all but free, all of that construction will never pay off.
If hydroelectric dam development is suddenly halted, then the community that the dam was intended to serve will be served by Rossi generators very early. Other electric generation plants, whether they be oil, gas, coal or nuclear fired, all have high development costs. All of these projects that are not at least nearly completed will be abandoned, and Rossis will replace them.
Next will come replacing existing plants with Rossi plants. This will probably be done on a cost-benefit basis. The ones that use the most expensive fuels will be removed first. Plants that are getting old will be removed early. As hydroelectric is one of the least expensive sources of power, it will be the last to go. Coal plants, though they are cheap, may get pressured to go out early because they have higher carbon footprint.
At some point in time, homes, apartment buildings and corporations will be popping off the grid fast enough that excess capacity will become the issue of the electric company. Again, they will be decommissioning power generation, most expensive, or possibly most polluting, first. However, the electric companies will not be buying a lot of Rossis.
At some point, electric companies will have to consider whether to continue in business as Rossi-power providers, or to simply go out of business. I do not know the cost of grid maintenance. Certainly grid maintenance is much less expensive than grid development. If electric companies could replace expensive power systems with Rossi power, they would only need to charge people the cost of power transmission plus reasonable profit. With this kind of low cost grid power, it may not make sense for residences, even small corporations, to buy and maintain their own generation systems when they can buy power for cheap.
However, When a Rossi generator will run for 6 months on a stack of nickels, it is doubtful that building new grid will ever make sense. The third world, in particular, will have a strong move to power generated on site, eliminating the cost of grid development.
How I would prove it.
If I were in Dr. Rossi’s boots, I would not be building a 1 mw plant to prove the validity of the e-cat, I would build a car.
If it were up to me, I would modify a steam car to run on e-cat, then I would drive around the country showing off my wares. I would set up a two-car rig with a follower car containing a webcam. I would live-broadcast the webcam on the internet. I would then travel to every university with a doctoral program in physics or engineering, and invite the professors to have a look.
I think that a rig like this would be much more compelling than a 1 mw plant. For starter, people will search the plant to see where it gets its power from. It’ll be hard to convince people that it doesn’t have a wire. Even if it is mounted on transparent pillars people will doubt. Professors are not likely to fly toGreeceto check this thing out. Without touching it, they won’t believe it.
There are two sources if steam cars that would attract me. The first is Cyclone Power. They have a steam engine that should be very easy to adapt both to the rossi and to an existing car. The other, interestingly, is Jay Leno. He has a number of steam cars. He has an extreme interest in cars. I bet bones he would love to be part of the biggest revolution in the automotive industry since Henry Ford himself, let alone everything else that has to do with energy. He has the capitol and the talent to make the integration.
As Rossi is European, I expect that he would recognize the trouble of theAtlantic ocean. As such, it would make sense to him to develop two, maybe three such steam cars. One for Europe, one for theAmericas, and maybe one forAsia. Even with all of that, he would have to manufacture far fewer e-cats than he will to get his one megawatt plant going.
How I have invested for the e-cat
For reasons that have nothing to do with Dr. Rossi’s e-cat, investing is a challenge right now to say the least. I have, however made some changes to my personal portfolio (though it isn’t huge) in response to the pending e-cat(see article in e-catworld.com).
I have placed some money in Cyclone Power Technologies (CYPW) as I am sure that they will skyrocket if/when the e-cat is revealed. At 30 cents a share, it doesn’t take much to hold a meaningful stake in the company. An investment of $300 gets you 1000 shares. This is enough to make a small fortune from the e-cat, but the downside risk is minimal. (I love the huge upside, small downside equations of penny stocks.)
I have purged myself of everything in the energy sector. If I were more confident of the legitimacy of the e-cat I may have shorted the sector, but I’m not. (Turns out I’d have done just fine so far by shorting the sector due to the world’s economic state.)
I am making no investment in nickel because the e-cat actually will do little to boost the nickel sector. Because it gets so much energy out of nickel, it’s likely that a pound of the stuff would suffice for a lifetime even if we end up using 100 times the energy that we use today.
Mostly I am holding my breath, I will be on the buy and sell buttons the moment that the e-cat gets top billing on every news source.
Lets not forget Piantelli
In 1995, Piantelli filed patents on a nickel + hydrogen = copper reaction. He claims a 2 to 3 times power multiplier. Further claims include his reaction operating without any heat input. Piantelli’s reaction operates without any catalyst as Dr. Rossi’s reaction has.
The frustrating thing about Piantelli is that he has been able to produce this reaction for 17 years without much consideration by the scientific world. Shockingly, the ubiquitous wikipedia doesn’t even have an entry on him. Trying to read between the lines, Piantelli seems to be one of those closed in guys that wants to figure out all of the answers before releasing his technology to the world. He also seems to think that a 3x power gain isn’t significant as it is at the low edge of the efficiency range of converting heat to electricity. As such, there isn’t enough energy at that rate to make a closed loop system.
However, LENR is scientifically revolutionary. If Piantelli has tamed the beast, this should be scientifically revolutionary even if there is only a heat gain of 1.1. The kind of resistance that the scientific community has to new ideas amazes me. It would seem that the scientific community should be thirsty for anything new. If it doesn’t pan out, it doesn’t pan out, but if LENR (or any other scientific anomaly) proves valid, the scientist that proves it and brings it to the world will get great accolades. But the vast majority of scientists seem to be so convinced that they know that they never bother to explore the potentially revolutionary. I would be much happier if every revolutionary theory came with a balance from real scientist that have really looked into it saying, “oops, this one didn’t pan out.” And even thought there was some explanation into the Pons & Fleishman announcement there seemed to be much more interest in the experiments that did not produce results than there was in the studies that did produce results.
It seems to me that Dr. Rossi’s push to implement the e-cat has inspired the “Piantelli group” to get itself going. (Further, it seems that Piantelli himself is no longer the driving force in the group which may be why it has developed some head of steam.) I find two things intriguing about the Piantelli factor:
First, it seems that there is independent confirmation that the N+H=Cu formula works (Dr. Rossi’s findings confirming Piantelli’s, not the other way around.)
Second, there is nothing like competition to motivate things to get to the market.
I, for one, hope that both Dr. Rossi and the Piantelli group succeed. I think it would be great if the N+H=Cu reaction came to the market with two competing entities, like Coke and Pepsi.
For further reading on Piantelli, please consider the following links:
http://www.energeticambiente.it (Use google to translate from Italian.)
How the e-cat may save the world economy
If you haven’t noticed, the world is in an economic mess that may eclipse that of the dirty thirties. While it hasn’t proven worse yet, meriting the moniker ”the great recession”, there are still two major issues waiting in the wings: the European situation may still get a lot worse. Some have seriously wondered if the euro can survive the crisis. The American debt, with a possible looming double-dip recession has left many wondering if the mighty U.S. dollar may melt away into the abyss of hyperinflation.
The thirties was rescued by the second world war. Suddenly, because of necessity, there was no unemployment, and tons of R & D.
However, when the e-cat is discovered by the world, it will bring in a time of desperation that will also spur mass R&D just like the second world war did. I mean, every product that consumes more energy than is available with a battery will have to be re-engineered. Trains, planes, automobiles, lawn mowers, furnaces. The list goes on and on. All of the companies that make these products will be in a desperate race to be first with Rossi power.
Now another fact needs to be factored into this equation. It seems that though individuals are hurting, and governments are in economic crisis, a lot of companies seem to be flush with cash. There aren’t, however, a lot of R&D projects that society is just craving, so one of the favorite ways for companies to spend their money isn’t an easy path to follow. When the e-cat is revealed, this will suddenly change. Companies will be spending R&D money as fast as they can. The result will be just like government stimulus, except it isn’t paired with government debt.
And companies that will be hurt by the e-cat, such as the big oil companies, what of them? They, especially, will be fighting for their lives. They will do what big tobacco did when it became clear that their product was falling out of favor — diversify. And diversification costs money. Money will be spent like crazy, the economy will be stimulated. People will be put back to work. Some will do R&D. Others will fill the vacancies that are left by those hired to do R&D.
I hold hope that the e-cat can provide the engine necessary to rescue the American and European governments from themselves.
I plan to heat my home with an e-cat this winter!
Dr. Rossi says that he will have a consumer water heater available in November. I, along with many others, will be standing in line to buy one of the first ones.
My situation is as follows: My house is located in the Yukon territory in northern Canada, 60 degrees, 40 minutes north at about 2500 of elevation. My home is currently heated with oil in a forced air furnace. Lets say that I have a heating bill!
To convert my home to boiler heat, I will need to replace my current heater core with a hot water core. These are available. (People I know heat water with wood/electricity, then distribute the heat with forced air conversion furnaces.) My current furnace fan will distribute the heat. I expect that I will have to add to my hot water tank to have enough hot water storage to run the modified furnace. I can then set up Dr. Rossi’s e-cat heater to keep my hot water tanks hot. If the e-cat can’t keep up, I will have to supplement it with electric heat. (This also allows me to not freeze my tail off if I get a breakdown.) If I have home insurance issues due to lack of certification, I will build a small separate building outside where the e-cat can live.
Will the whole thing be cheap? Nope. Early copies of any technology are the most pricey copies. However, I’ll be the first person on the block, the first person in the territory, hopefully even the first person in the country to heat his home with an e-cat. It’ll be worth it.
What should the governments roll be with this technology?
By Bob Norman
What should the governments roll be with this technology?
A few of the issues I see are listed.
1) Tax hit to many things. Gas, out, electricity
2) Potential hazard with gamma rays?
3) Fire & Explosion possibilities.
4) Steam or Hot water in cars could be hazardous in collisions.
5) Is it a potential bomb? If so can they hold it off the market?
6) What special certification requirements are needed.
I worry that government will move very slow on allowing devices in the market and will drag their feet in unleashing the market capability.
I would like to see minimal to no new regulations and let the market work out the issues. A product must have xyz to get insurance, To me this is a bigger unknown than the technology issues.
The Main Stream Media is ignoring this as is the DOE. This is not a good sign.
Globalization occurred as a result of labor cost differences. Some things that have high transportation cost did not move off shore, but with cheap energy one more barrier to off shore manufacturing is removed.
Everyone’s thoughts on these issues may be interesting.
My take on October 6th e-cat test
I’ve been dissatisfied with the reporting of the October 6th e-cat test. So I’ve done some of my own number crunching using data provided by NyTeknik*.
I massaged their data as follows:
- I deleted all rows that did not contain data from the external heat exchanger (most rows).
- I added the column: “Delta t” which uses the Excel formula: “= H2 – G2″.
- I added the “Watts” column which assumes a 6,000 cc/hour water flow through the heat exchanger, and uses formula “= I2 * 700.
- I added rows indicating where the start and stop of self-sustain mode is. This data was gathered from the NyTeknik “detailed report”.
- I calculated average power as: = SUM(J27:J40) /14
The resultant data is:
Date Time Ambient [°C]Cell 2 out[°C] In [°C] Heat Exch InHeat Exch Out Delta t Watts 7110/6/2011 11:22:01 28.7 29.9 25.6 25.6 29.9 4.3 3010 95410/6/2011 11:52:01 28.7 29.7 25.5 24.7 24.2 -0.5 -350 154010/6/2011 12:12:01 28.8 31.1 25.7 24.5 24 -0.5 -350 183510/6/2011 12:22:01 28.9 34.4 25.7 24.5 24 -0.5 -350 213510/6/2011 12:32:01 28.8 40.1 25.7 24.7 24.2 -0.5 -350 270310/6/2011 12:52:01 28.8 59 25.7 24.4 23.6 -0.8 -560 299910/6/2011 13:02:01 28.9 68 25.8 24.7 23.9 -0.8 -560 334610/6/2011 13:14:01 28.9 77.7 25.8 24.4 23.7 -0.7 -490 358610/6/2011 13:22:01 28.9 84 25.8 24.4 23.7 -0.7 -490 404910/6/2011 13:38:01 28.9 94.8 25.8 24.9 26.3 1.4 980 413910/6/2011 13:41:01 29 96.8 25 25.2 27.2 2 1400 434910/6/2011 13:48:01 29 101.5 25 25.2 28.7 3.5 2450 472110/6/2011 14:01:01 29.1 110.2 25 26 32.9 6.9 4830 499110/6/2011 14:10:01 29.2 115.2 25.1 26.3 30.7 4.4 3080 514110/6/2011 14:15:01 29.2 117.3 25.1 26 29.9 3.9 2730 529110/6/2011 14:20:01 29.3 118.9 25.2 26.4 30.7 4.3 3010 557610/6/2011 14:30:01 29.4 121.5 25.3 26.1 30 3.9 2730 578610/6/2011 14:37:01 29.5 122 25.3 26.3 30.1 3.8 2660 605510/6/2011 14:46:00 29.6 121.6 25.3 26.1 29.6 3.5 2450 615910/6/2011 14:50:01 29.6 121.2 25.4 26.2 29.6 3.4 2380 618910/6/2011 14:51:01 29.6 121.2 25.4 26.3 30.2 3.9 2730 642910/6/2011 14:59:01 29.7 120.9 25.4 26.1 30.2 4.1 2870 719010/6/2011 15:25:01 29.8 119.2 25.4 26.2 31 4.8 3360 768410/6/2011 15:42:03 30 121.8 25.5 25.9 28.9 3 2100 Enter "self-sustain mode" 810110/6/2011 15:56:01 30.1 123.8 25.6 24.9 33.4 8.5 5950 859310/6/2011 16:13:01 30.2 121.7 25.6 24.7 32.9 8.2 5740 886310/6/2011 16:22:01 30.3 118.9 25.6 24.9 31.7 6.8 4760 932510/6/2011 16:38:01 30.3 115.4 25.7 24.5 33.7 9.2 6440 968510/6/2011 16:50:01 30.2 115 25.7 24.7 35.5 10.8 7560 1020710/6/2011 17:08:01 30.1 114.8 25.8 25 34 9 6300 1056710/6/2011 17:20:01 30 114.4 25.8 24.7 31.3 6.6 4620 1093910/6/2011 17:33:01 30 114.3 25.9 24.4 30.5 6.1 4270 1173210/6/2011 18:00:01 29.8 116.2 24.5 24.4 31.6 7.2 5040 1291210/6/2011 18:40:01 29.6 116.8 24.8 24.3 29.6 5.3 3710 1328410/6/2011 18:53:01 29.6 116.4 24.8 24.3 29 4.7 3290 1358410/6/2011 19:03:01 29.5 116.6 24.9 24.5 29.8 5.3 3710 1413710/6/2011 19:22:01 29.5 114.5 25.8 24.2 32.4 8.2 5740 Average power: 1422710/6/2011 19:25:01 29.4 113.3 26.7 24.3 32.4 8.1 5670 5200 Begin Shutdown 1466110/6/2011 19:40:01 29.4 108.1 27.4 24 27.4 3.4 2380 1502110/6/2011 19:52:01 29.4 104.6 27.5 24.3 26.9 2.6 1820 1520110/6/2011 19:58:01 29.4 103.1 27.5 24.4 26.5 2.1 1470
A few notes:
- The average output power I am seeing in self-sustain mode is 5,200 watts. Only 1/3 of the e-cat was running, so the e-cat was demonstrating that it can operate at 15,600 watts. Though this is less than the rated 35,000 watts, it remains to be impressive!
- At time stamp 15:53 in the NyTeknik detailed report it says:
· Power to the resistance was set to zero. · A device “producing frequencies” was switched on. · Overall current 432 mA. Voltage 230 V. · Current through resistance was zero, voltage also zero. From this moment the E-cat ran in self sustained mode.
This is an interesting statement, it would appear that Dr. Rossi is bombarding the e-cat with a frequency (electromagnetic?) which inspires the reaction. This is the first I have heard of such a bombardment. However, it is only after this that the e-cat seems to be generating power.
- I am somewhat confused by the lack of data consistency. I would assume that the T-out from the e-cat should directly and consistently translate to the delta T of the heat exchanger.
- I am confused that they are running the e-cat water out of the heat exchanger and down the drain without measuring its temperature. Any inefficiencies in the heat exchanger should show up as heat in that water.
- I would very much have loved to see a logging of the water flow through the heat exchanger as well as a logging of the water flow through the e-cat.
* The source data can be obtained from the “temperature data” link on this page: http://www.nyteknik.se/nyheter/energi_miljo/energi/article3284823.ece
What can we do to help the technology spread?
By Bob Norman:
I thought publicity was key and spreading the word to build a wave of public sentiment would be the thing to do. I asked Rossi in his blog if he was inviting Main Stream Media to his 1 MW demonstration and he said no, publicity was the last thing he wants. I am confused by that and no longer know what can be done or what we should do to help jump start the technology.
What does everyone else think should be the path for helping Rossi Succeed?
How much will an e-cat cost?
Dr. Rossi has promised to sell 10kw e-cat boilers for home use for 5,000 euro by November, 2011. This number, which works out to 500 euro per kw has become used as “the cost of an e-cat”. Is this what the cost will be ten years down the road?
Oh my no!
We don’t seem to understand the incredible powers of mass production and the free enterprise system. (This, not the car, not “the assembly line”, was Henry Ford’s great invention imho.) Lets look at how these two work together to bring down the price of an e-cat.
First, an analysis of the current cost of an e-cat. The first e-cat boilers will be significantly more than an e-cat, they will include everything necessary to work as a home boiler. This means electronics, heat exchangers, a rather large lead and boron lined box, etc. Second, as far as I can tell these things will be hand assembled by Rossi himself. Even if they are not, they will be hand assembled as an automated process has surely not been developed yet. Third, the components are very pricey compared to what they will be. Rossi uses a very fine nickel powder. The manufacturing process for this is rather limited, so it is not very mass produced. As a result it is quite a lot more expensive than pure nickel. However, once e-cats are mass produced and there is a significant market for this fine nickel powder its cost will be marginally more than the cost of raw nickel. The same goes for the hydrogen. Hydrogen of normal purity apparently doesn’t produce a reaction, however highly purified hydrogen does. This purification process is surely currently expensive. How do I know this? Simple, it isn’t mass produced. Once big automated machines are producing huge volumes of the stuff it won’t be expensive any more.
Hold it, Bruce, who’s to stop the hydrogen purification company from charging a mint for the purified hydrogen even when they can make it for cheap? This, folks, (for those who don’t already understand this) is the joy of the free enterprise system. Lets say I am sitting around with a big lump of cash looking for a place to spend it. Someone shows me just how overpriced high-purity hydrogen for e-cats is. What will I do? I’ll get into that lucrative market. If I continue to maintain overprice, another player will get in. This will continue until all of us have more capacity than there is market for. We will then be given a choice — sell a little bit of hydrogen at a high price, or sell more at a slightly lower price. This will produce a pricing war amongst the suppliers who need to sell highly purified hydrogen to justify the millions that they spent building the hydrogen purification machine. That is the law of supply and demand. It is a “law” like the law of gravity. It works every time, even though most who don’t understand it can find all sorts of examples where it doesn’t seem to work. Truth is, with a bit of time it works every time. It doesn’t, however, work instantly.
So what will the true cost of an e-cat be? It’ll be just a bit more than the cost of the raw materials involved. Rossi says that there’s about 50cc of nickel in a 5kw reactor core. Nickel currently costs about $8 per pound. Nickel weighs about 8 grams per cc, so there’s about 400 grams of nickel in a 5kw core, or 80 grams of nickel per kw. That’s about 1/5 pound. So the nickel cost is less than $2 ($8 * 1/5 = $1.6).
Hydrogen is readily available in water. It merely takes energy to get it out. Energy will be generated with e-cats, so it is close enough to free. So the cost of hydrogen is nothing less than negligible.
The catalyst is still an unknown. Rossi says that it is a common and abundant material. For purposes of this estimation, lets say that it costs the same as the nickel.
So the “fuel” of the e-cat should eventually cost less than $5 per kw. This should, if Rossi’s estimates are accurate (I find him to be more than a bit of an exaggerator), mean that energy will cost about $0.0012 per kw/h ($5 per kw continuously for six months (4320 hours)).
What of the e-cat itself? It consists of:
- A metal container which is about the size of a man’s fist for 5 kw of output.
- A resistive heating element.
- A hydrogen input tube.
- An unknown “frequency” generator (Electromagnetic? Audio? Who knows.)
That’s about it. In mega-mass production, with the Chinese making the thing as fast as they can, how much will this cost, ten bucks? Close enough. So for an e-cat itself, we’ll spend about $2 per kw. Now output is less than $0.002 per kw/h. Cool, but factor in that the major use of energy is not thermal, we need rotary energy or electrical energy. That cannot be produced efficiently. If an e-cat can run at 300c, as Rossi claims, electricity generation will be about 30% efficient, so energy will be about $0.006 per kw/h (plus amortization on the cost of the generator + heat engine.) If the e-cat can only heat to 150c (slightly higher than what’s been demonstrated) then generation efficiency will drop to about 20%. Now energy will cost about $0.01 per kw/h (plus the amortization on the cost of the generator + a larger heat engine.)
That’s why I have been saying the ENERGY IS OBSOLETE. It’s practically free!
Now to answer the most obvious of questions:
1 – What about Rossi’s cut? Won’t we have to pay beaucoup bucks to Rossi for his patent rights? Well, not really, for the following reasons:
- At some point Rossi will make more money by taking less royalty than by taking more. Lets look at the extremes. If Rossi charges $.50 per kw/h, his product will be nothing more than a scientific novelty. Rossi will get maybe $1 million per year. If he charges $.05 per kw/h, and the non-Rossi costs are $0.05 per kw/h, the $0.10 per kw/h of heat will have some uses as a heating system, but it won’t put coal or oil out of business. Rossi will be earning probably $50 million per year. Not bad. If Rossi charges $0.01 per kw/h, and the cost of production is $0.02, he now can produce heat at $0.03 per kw/h. He will sweap the entire heating market, but he still won’t really challenge the electricity production or automotive markets. Rossi will be earning hundreds of millions per year in royalties. If Rossi simply charges as much as a royalty as is the production costs of the e-cat, the thing will output heat at $0.004 per kw/h. Electricity and rotary energy will be between $0.012 and $0.02 per kw/h. Current world energy consumption is about 150,000,000,000,000 kw/hours. Rossi’s take, about $300 billion per year. As you can see, the more Rossi charges, the less he makes. By charging very little, he will easily become the richest man ever.
- If Rossi over-charges on royalties seriously hampering the development of his technology countries that have little respect for patent law, such as China, and many African nations, will get an incredible economic boost. While this will challenge the first world, it will not particularly slow down the spread or low price tag on e-cat energy.
- Whether Rossi over-charges or not, there will be all manner of exploration into other ways of generating LENR. They will be found, and they will find ways of circumventing Rossi’s patents.
- Patents only have an 18 year lifespan. In the scheme of things, that’s not very much. In fact it’ll take all 18 of those years for the e-cat to become the dominant energy source. After that, Rossi’s royalties will only apply to any patentable improvements he makes on his technology. The royalty he gets from these will be limited to the amount of improvement they make on the “public domain” version (current version) of the e-cat.
2 – What about the price of Nickel? Won’t it go through the roof? Well, not yet. Lets say that tomorrow the world started using e-cats to produce 150,000,000,000,000 kw/hours of energy, enough to maintain our current lifestyle. Well, according to Rossi, 0.00005 pounds of nickel produces 1 kw/h. So the consumption rate of nickel will be about 350,000 tons per year. Current nickel consumption is 1,500,000 tons. So nickel consumption would jump by about 25%. This is hardly enough to freak out the price of nickel. Nickel is one of the most abundant metals. There are significant untapped reserves. We’ll be using A WHOLE LOT more energy before we suffer from significant nickel price increases. That said, by time we have our personal flying machines, by time we each have a greenhouse that grows all of the crops we need with artificial light, by time we have found every way of exploiting this cheap power, we’ll probably get there.
3 – How fast will the price drop? This is the million dollar question. The price will drop under the influence of market forces. I forecast that the per kw/h price will be 50% in two years. It’ll be 10% in 5. It’ll be 1% in 10. My forecast is that the price will bottom out in about 20 years when factors like nickel supply start to take effect. (Please note that weather forecasters aren’t perfect either.)
3 – Why is it worth knowing this? If we don’t have a clear grasp of the market forces, if we don’t have a sense of how the price of the e-cat will drop with time, we will be very poor at predicting the effect of the e-cat on the future. If our predictions are all wrong, our planning for the future will be just as wrong.
Have I got it right? Nope. Have I got it figured closer than you do? Well, that depends on whether you recognize the powers of mass production and the law of supply and demand. If you are sure that I’ve got it wrong, please show me so that my planning for the future can be improved.
1 M-Watt Running Commentary
By Bob Norman
Will it be conclusive? No, the skeptics will be their in force
Will the customer be identified? No
Will Rossi’s partner be named? Maybe (How’s that for a prediction)
Will defkalion announce to steal Rossi’s thunder? No
Will Roll out plans be given?
I believe the test will be a success, but skeptics will once again find fault, even though the test is being done by the customer. I think it will be enough of a success to move the ball forward. I just hope its enough of a success to allow some major press and more market awareness to start the public pressure on government to allow use and allow patents. I still see the patent issue as being huge. This could hold back market activity as much as government red tape.
Rossi is a bit of a showman and will have something to intrigue the watchers, but like much of his publicity, it will produce as much speculation as to what it means.
Don’t know what will happen, put people comments and observations will be fun. Please add your expectations and observations.