Who will be the big Players?

By Bob

I’m curious how people feel about the long term outlook of LENR as far as who becomes the big players. Lets assume LENR is real and turns into a replacement for oil and gas.

Will Rossi and Defkalion survive and thrive long term?
What fortune 500 companies will enter the market?
Will the fortune 500 survive and thrive?
Will Big Oil enter it and will they prosper?
Will start-ups dominate this business?
What companies are best poised to enter and succeed in LENR?
Will the business break into segments or remain full line suppliers?
What will be the biggest business surprise – Crystal ball guess?

I think we are on the edge of the revolution that is getting close to exploding. It might take 2 to 5 years to reach critical mass, but lets assume it does and see what people think.

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149 Responses to “Who will be the big Players?”

  1. Simon Derricutt Says:

    Bob – I feel that it will make surprisingly little difference overall in the 2-5 year time-frame.

    The current financial problems we see are more to do with energy costs being high. With energy costs going down to lower than the cheap oil era, most companies will be better off and be able to produce things more cheaply. The only real losers would be the big oil and energy companies, and they really ought to see this coming and get into some LENR technology as soon as they can. Oil will still be needed for plastics and other organic syntheses – it’s still going to be cheaper than other start-points. The electricity suppliers will have a rush to change their power stations, so while they are investing in that the cost to the consumer will not reduce quickly.

    Even at the best estimate of Rossi and Defkalion producing home units at the end of this year, it’s going to take quite a few years before they will run out of first-time customers. So maybe a 10-year wait for homes to be heated by LENR, and 20 before there is significant home-generation of electricity. Even then, probably most of them will be built in China or India.

    Big companies will often have their own generators on-site, run by diesel. They will probably rush to change these over and use them as their main energy supply rather than use grid power. Steam turbines in the megawatt range will have long order-books.

    Companies like General Motors, currently cutting back to save costs, may well get into the steam turbine business. They have most of the tooling needed, the lines and the people. They may instead use an air engine rather than a steam engine, so those various air motor designs could get a boost.

    Since it is likely that Rossi’s design (and thus probably also Defkalion’s) is based on Piantelli’s lapsed patent, neither will be able to get a patent on the base technology, just the bits they have put on top. There will thus be a large number of “copy-cats” produced. Rossi and Defkalion will make their profits and probably sell the companies at a profit, but they will only have a time lead, so the companies would not be a good investment unless they keep improving their technology and prices.

    It will be a very patchy result. Companies that jump in to get early models will reduce their energy costs and get an advantage over their competitors, but later on the cost of getting the generators will plummet and the efficiency will improve, so later customers will see a bigger drop in energy costs.

    In the West, the cost of a product is dominated by the cost of the people; for China and India, and the East in general, it’s the cost of materials and energy. Although this is starting to show signs of change, and better working conditions in the East are coming, the relative costs of Eastern production will go down relative to the West. There may well be trade wars if things happen too fast.

    No-one will have a valid excuse for building a Uranium-powered reactor, since the only reason they would use such an expensive and dangerous way of getting power would be to produce bomb-making materials.

    • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

      Simon is probably right about LENR production moving to the East but with automated production, that shouldn’t be necessary. Labor costs will not necessarily be the deciding factor. China’s biggest advantage is that it is pro-business. Obama is anti-rich, anti-business, and pro-socialist…a proven recipe for financial disaster. Obama’s latest coup is saddling the US with the highest corporate tax rate in the world. Meanwhile Obama’s handlers, Silicon Valley, GE, and Warren Buffett, praise high taxes while moving production offshore and using every tax dodge in the book.

      Some China production is starting to move back to the US because of cheaper energy and cost of materials. http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/03/reshoring-updates.html

      Remember when Japan could do no wrong….when it looked like Japan would soon own the world? Now they’re calling this Japan’s lost decade. Japan’s national debt makes the US and Greece look like paragons of prudence.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Iggy – I recently saw that some UK businesses have also got work back from China, but it has been more from logistical reasons then cost savings. The UK, with automation, is not much more expensive than China with manual labour, but delivery is quicker and more secure, and they can advertise it as “Made in Britain” rather than the ubiquitous “Made in China” sticker.

        This nice start may be throttled by the new tax increases, of course, since most governments have not realised that excessive taxing means that you actually get less income.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Keep in mind folks that China’s labor costs will not always be cheaper than everyone else’s.

      • bbck7 Says:

        Iggy….”Obama’s latest coup is saddling the US with the highest corporate tax rate in the world.” Come on Iggy, the average effective tax rate for large US corporations is 12%

    • Bob Says:

      Great comments Simon. I think your right on in what you have stated. I believe that Oil companies will try to get into LENR, but I’m skeptical as to the likelihood of them being successful. I believe the management stile and skill sets will not translate well to this new technology.
      I state that based somewhat on the personal computer history. When the Apple first came out and others jumped in the people that did well initially, like Radio Shack did not have the real vision and the mentality to gear up for what it would take. A lot of people thought the typewriter companies might dominate as it was a natural extension of their present business model. Once again, they didn’t have the expertise for the conversion to make this market go. There were companies that came out with their own special software and sold systems, mostly word processors, but they went no further and the market was fragmented.
      IBM came out with an open system allowing others to add cards and software and add value and the market exploded. It succeeded so well that IBM was pushed out of the market by the relentless push for lower prices. Selling to China was just the end game for that technology. Dell, HP survived by relentless consolidation and manufacturing muscle. The Business is far from the explosive days and is in almost survival mode because of price pressures.
      Whats interesting is that off all the early players, Apple is the one that is succeeding. They broke all the rules, closed hardware and software and almost went under, but they had the one thing that you can’t count on, innovation. In my opinion, they broke all the normal rules and succeeded wildly because they learned how to make computers people friendly. While Microsoft was a huge success by any standard, most people hate them because of the software not being user friendly and full of issues. Engineers love Unix, but that’s a small part of the market. I have been amazed that someone hasn’t displaced Microsoft by developing a better operating system, but that shows how hard it is to displace once something is established.
      Didn’t mean to make this a PC discussion, but There are many of the same issues that will be faced by LENR. If you look at what it will take to succeed, it will be electronics, software, material science and manufacturing muscle. You would think that GE would be a big player in this area, but I’m skeptical hey can move that fast. Oil companies don’t understand what it takes and as long as the old guard have the “laying on of hands” regarding direction. I personally believe that we don’t know the name of the company that will be the big player or players in this market, they don’t exist today. Will Rossi succeed, that’s a crap shoot to me. I think he has too many personality issues to be a long term success. I believe that a few people will figure it out and several start-ups will plow the field and shape the industry. After years of growth, things will start to move to Asia, just like electronics has and America will be looking for the next big thing.
      The evolution of the technology will set off new and just as significant revolutions that will also go the same way in development, but the world will have changed so much, that my crystal ball can’t understand what it sees.

      I copied this over from “Post” to get it aligned with the discussion.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        In my opinion, such as it is, the differences between the East and the West as far as cost of manufacturing is concerned will be minimized. People in the West (especially America) will have much less need to do the 9 to 5 grind, and people in the East will be doing much better economically and thus have higher expectations. So I don’t see that the manufacturing magnet of the East will be quite so strong as it is now.

  2. Roger Bird Says:

    There won’t be any big players. The science and theory may be revolutionary. The courage to go down this path spending lots of one’s own money and getting other people to spend their money is awesome and challenging. But the engineering is no big deal, and the replication once the process is understood is no big deal. Once the process is known and LENR is an accepted fact, every tinkerer on planet Earth will get into it.

    • kwhilborn Says:

      I agree. Dollar store items are more intricate.

    • Bob Says:

      Roger, I tend to agree it will start out with a lot of small players, but the market is so big that over time the markets will consolidate around a few big players. People will want turn key systems, not kits or pieces they put together. Top products will emerge and a few big companies will emerge. I think it will look a lot like the PC expansion, a lot at first and then a few big ones when it matures. I don’t have a clue what companies will emerge.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Bob, you are probably right. There will be so much more to LENR than just the magic reaction that we are all so interested in and so amazed about. It would be like thinking of computers as only being microprocessors. There is also price that will tend to consolidate the market. Big players will be able to reduce prices better than small players. But NO ONE will be able to have a monopoly on the market, and there will always be some neighborhood tinkerer who can make one for you.

      • Bob Says:

        Its looking more and more like very few patents will eventually be in place and LENR can be generated from multiple sources in multiple ways. No only will their be no monopolies, there will be few patent royalty payment on the Base design. I think application patents will be more valuable. So, yes, I totally agree with you!

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        All these comments sound spot-on to me. Initially, though, kits may be necessary in order to get round regulatory problems. Without a big company forcing it through, those UL marks are going to be difficult for a neighbourhood handyman to get. There will be a few cock-ups and deaths from people not knowing what they are doing. Yesterday in the UK a woman got 40% burns since she was transferring petrol from a canister to a jug while standing beside her lit gas-stove cooking dinner. Even free energy will have its costs. Any LENR reactor powerful enough to be useful will occasionally go wrong, and needs to have several fail-safes included in the design. Nevertheless, someone will defeat those fail-safes for some crazy reason. Someone will open a sealed nanopowdered Nickel container just to see what’s in it – another reason to use foil if possible.

      • alaincoe Says:

        unlike microprocessor, LENR core is very simple. There is more engineering in turbines that in an hyperion.

        there won’t be an Intel of LENR, but many builders like fro todays computer cases. like coputer cases there will be patents, not the basic design of LENR, because all is public today. only the cooking recipe are secret…

        no complexity, no mineral resource, no patent.. this energy is a paradigm change… the only key is work, and innovation.

        for me like cars in the 50s, it will give much job everywhere…
        many small corp will coexist, with local workers…
        it will consolidate on price when the market will be saturated, late…

        note that the is a theory that the number of competitors on a market is determined by the cost of research to innovate enough, needing a minimal market.
        if much research needed, few corps, if few research , many corps.
        I think that research for core will be high at the beginning, and stay high to make it cheaper, smaller, bigger …

        it seems as some say here that the most important will be the “application”, not the core…
        heater/boiler, turbine, CHP, absorption fridge, Tri-CHP, thermoelectric devices, hybrid or steam cars, pizza oven, cofee machine, rolling radiators, UPS,…

        note that using a source of energy LENR to run a device cannot be a patent… it needed to be non trivial.
        but a trick to make this mix work better, can be a patent.

  3. Roger Bird Says:

    You guys might want to check this out:

    http://cleantechauthority.com/lenr-finally-getting-traction/

  4. kwhilborn Says:

    Nice post… I’m always up for creative thinking.

    Biggest business surprise.
    I’ve mentioned before but blimps. Blimps were sometimes large floating hotels. The Hindenburg had over 30 bedrooms a restaurant with grand pianos, and was like a floating cruise ship.
    Hydrogen is obviously too dangerous but Hot air and helium from LENR would be viable replacements.

    Cruise ships go slow compared to what they could do if they were being chased by submarines. This is a fuel factor. With cheap fuel cruise ships would travel quickly and be a viable method for crossing oceans. Maybe waterskiing behind them would be an activity offered (joke).

    I doubt sailboats will stick around. We all pretend we like to sail, but give me almost free fuel and I’ll ride circles around your sailboat and giggle maniacally.

    I also think more than 5 years. Let’s think 20 years.

    The trucks/trains/pains become much cheaper because of fuel. Plants that build everything from switches/ballbearings/powercords/thingamabobs/boxes and anything else will become cheaper to run as their heating/cooling and power costs are reduced by over 80% (20 years).
    So when the guy that builds your 100 inch television is shopping for parts they should be much cheaper than they are today and the entire television will be drastically lower in price.

    Imagine the boom to buy everything and natural resources will be the victim. Natural resources will be hiked in prices beyond imagining. Nickel might not rise in price from LENR but it might because of the building boom.

    People like me might wander off into the woods or the middle of a lake on a houseboat and park for years at a time. I’d fish for food and power my computer and internet on Nickel scrapings trying to convince the pathoskeptics that LENR was here 20 years ago. It would make more sense to live off the grid.

    Cars would increase in size. Small cars were a necessity when gas was a fuel, but why limit yourself in a tiny deathtrapmobile when fuel is virtually free. A crossover might be something between an S.U.V. and a Mobile home. Since weight isn’t an issue you might see a “smaller” type car that can expand to 3 or 4 floors at the push of a button.

    I’ve mentioned before that Gas stations would disappear.

    Fortune 500 companies would mainly be the car/motorhome/houseboat companies.

    I think oil money is already diversified. This isn’t the 40’s. Any rich oil families are probably diversified. Even J.R. Ewing would have his fair share of Apple/Google/Coca-Cola. I bet Dubai owns a good chunk of America.

    I do think e-cats will be fodder for black markets. If a police officer pulled over my motorhome filled with fake e-cats what could he do? They are not contraband. All the wind power freaks and Hot fusion scientists will be left out of work so they can supplement their Harveys income by building ecats in their basements.

    E-cats really look fairly simple. My dollar store has more complicated items. I realize this is bad news for manufacturers of the ecat.

    Lets cool everything. Ice skating in summer anyone?

    Desalination could pump flowing water into our deserts and make land fertile. Starvation could end.

    Global warming from smog would be ended, if more was needed roofs, roads, man made clouds/foam could reflect sunlight back into space.

    You can breath fresh country air in the middle of any city (minus the manure). Food will taste better, smells will be more pleasant.

    It looks like Toyota and Mitsubishi (The Japanese) are already into LENR. Perhaps they will be the fortune 500 companies leading the way.

    With talk of possible polar shifts maybe mankind can generate an electric field of our own to save our hinies.

    I’m sure there will be many other great things to come of this.

    • Bob Says:

      You have a pretty nice vision of the future. I think this and much more will transform the world, but to me the affect on world politics will be huge. When countries can quit fighting over oil the world will be a better place. When food can be grown year around in almost any location, much of what people fight over will go away.

      I think the biggest affect will be in freeing the people from government. If the government can’t tax the energy much and you can produce your own food, work for many will no longer be done,
      people will live off the land, of coarse the government will then try and control the water. We will have new bridges to cross in government and people relations. New alignments will be required.

      I think that the core, once understood will be sold at the local hardware store. Controllers will also be readily available for drop in usage. A CF operating system will emerge and your power system will control usage by smart control of appliances. A whole new electronic and software infrastructure will emerge resulting in another high tech boom. Innovation will result in products not dreamed of.

      I want my own submarine.

      Long term Oil will fade away

      Cold Fusion degrees will be offered in college.

      • kwhilborn Says:

        I cannot see governments vanishing, but with energy issues gone there will be less on their plate.

        We will still need Armed Forces (albeit not as much), roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. We will need hospitals, police, research, and especially social services.

        I believe that with a highly robotic and computerized work force we will see a greater need for welfare or risk high crime.
        I do not see this as being a problem however as the same amount of food and work is being done. The government must tax robotics/computerized labor higher.

        I would not want to live without a government I have 3 children and prefer the idea of safety and police.

        I agree that the middle east will need to develop business and trading, and thus become less fanatical and “friendlier”. I am not saying Islam is an unfriendly culture, but western relations will improve.

        Anyways.. Off for the weekend to open the cottage.

        adios.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        The big check on oppressive government will be Libertarian City States. The creative, producers, entertainers, sports stars, etc can move to low tax floating cities. The only people left to tax would be the poor, Ted Turner, Sean Penn, and Warren Buffett.

        There could be Puritan Seasteads, Swinger Seasteads, WestWorld Seasteads, and even Islamic Seasteads where wife beating is the national sport.

        The video predicts that the 1st seasteads will be old oil rig platforms but I think cruise ships will be the 1st.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        But I guarantee that 99% of these Seasteads will not be economically independent, unless one of them is a Hippy Seastead. Most will be inhabited by absentee owners of factories and business that are protected by police whose incomes will not come from taxes from those people living on the Seasteads. Eventually, the land-based population will get tired of supporting the owners (read: parasites) who don’t even pay taxes to protect the very factories and businesses that they “own”.

        One thing that Ayn Rand type libertarians seem to forget is that each and every business on Planet Earth is an authoritarian (read: fascist) organization. Many try to be liberal and to be internally democratic, but the business model of every business is authoritarian. Some owners and CEOs bend over backward to be charitable and to listen to their underlings, but the bottom line is authoritarianism. The only freedom that you have as a worker is to decide to TRY to go to one authoritarian firm rather than another. And if there is a glut of workers, too bad for you. You may have freedom to try to start your own business, if the market and government regulations don’t get in the way. And you have freedom the other 16 hours of the working day. But while working, you either own or control the business, or you do what the bosses tell you to do.

        That is not freedom. It is almost certainly more freedom than working in a government controlled state economy, but it is not freedom. I believe that this is at the root of the Occupy (bowel) movement. So often, bosses treat workers like shit, and there is absolutely nothing that the workers can do about it.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Islam is a very unfriendly culture to outsiders. I am saying it. I have Muslim friends. (I don’t say it to them.) I have hung out with Muslims in Silicon Valley. I know what I am talking about. This does not mean that every Muslim is a terrorist or a bad guy or unfriendly. It means that, in general, your chances of friendliness with a Muslim (assuming that you are an infidel) are worse than your chances of friendliness with a Jain or a Hindu or a Sufi or a Catholic or a conservative Christian or a Mormon, etc. I would be dishonest with myself if I did not say this.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        “How To Properly Beat Your Wife” – Sold out Islamic bestseller.
        http://www.sodahead.com/living/canadian-muslims-pretend-to-be-shocked-that-a-muslim-book-on-how-to-beat-your-wife-is-a-bestseller/question-2539765/

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        kwhilborn: “Anyways.. Off for the weekend to open the cottage.
        adios.”
        ~~~~~~~~~~~
        Anyways.. Off to get married (6:00pm today), then tomorrow off to Hot Springs for a working honeymoon. Gotta move out of a house I’m closing on, April 6. Traveling in my beatup 87 Toyota PU so I’ll have something to haul with. Will be 73 in 5 weeks. Marrying high school classmate.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Incredible. So, you expect us to believe anything you say when you tell us whoppers like that?

      • Bob Says:

        kwhilborn – Didn’t mean to say government will go away, but I think government size will greatly be reduced. No department of Energy, No EPA. Most of what they do will go away. More people will be engaged in agriculture so many of the jobs lost will be replaced with these type jobs.
        With much of the tax base removed, the welfare state will not exist as it is today. Agriculture areas will be established in poverty areas and people will be required to work at them to support themselves.

        Maybe people doing crime will be put on floating cities and only will be allowed back in society when they live a normal life without crime for x time. Get caught doing a crime, move to a harsher island. The whole way crimes are dealt with will change to match the new society structure.

        Iggy’s idea on floating cities will proliferate and people of like mind will cluster in such places for better lifestyles. Such cities will specialize in manufacturing of certain products use for exchange of goods they will need.

        Fishing the oceans will all but stop as it will be more cost affective to have local fish growing. People will be required for this type of job and many more for infrastructure support for the new agriculture centric society.

        People will organize around work pods, almost like communes. As such these groups will educate their own kids and police themselves, again making government smaller and less relevant. Over time just a minimalist government will emerge and the school systems will be transformed away from big public school systems.

      • Bob Says:

        Iggy, congratulations on the Marriage. Hope you have a happy, happy marriage!

        You should pick up the said book, you may need it. LOL

      • kwhilborn Says:

        Grats Iggy,

        Yea seasteads would go arm in arm with what I suggested in the way of people living in the middle of lakes or oceans off the grid. Why not have a community where everyone hooks their boats together. People might grow sick of Algaeburgers and fish though.

        Fun thoughts. Enjoy your honeymoon.

  5. Simon Derricutt Says:

    One of the major problems will be social. If energy becomes really cheap, and the West becomes competitive with the East through automation, a lot of people who used to make things will be out of a job. Admittedly those are nasty repetitive jobs that bring no satisfaction, but they do bring a wage and status. People who are unemployed or are not doing something satisfying lose their self-esteem, and this will lead to social unrest. Society will be stratified into those who have a nice complex job maintaining the machinery and those who just consume, and the consumers will in general feel that society gives them nothing good. We currently see this state in at least the UK (last year’s riots and the new report on it) and poor areas in the USA where, from the European viewpoint, there is a whole generation or two consigned to unemployment and disaffection. This is a social bomb just waiting to explode.

    I have not got a solution for all this – I don’t know enough about politics and how to create a new world-order that is more human-centric rather than the current money-centric ideas. The politicians, who I hope have studied these ideas at college, need to really start discussing these problems now and attempt to find a solution before the West gets torn apart by riots.

    At the moment it seems to me that the gap between the poor and the rich has been widening during my lifetime. Productivity per person employed has been steadily rising, too, so it is obvious that there will be less jobs in future per head of population – there is only a certain amount that one person can consume, and the human input to make that supply is reducing year-on-year.

    The jobs that will exist will be mainly high-tech, with the rest being cleaners, carers, doctors, bureaucracy and education. To do the high-tech jobs will require more knowledge, so expect education to last longer than it currently does. Also expect to retire earlier, though it would be a major advantage to all if the retirees were still retained for their knowledge and experience on an occasional basis. There will be a lot of people who will not be able to absorb all that knowledge, leading us into maybe a technocracy rather than democracy. If you are working, taxes will be much higher than now – you will need to support maybe 10 other people rather than the 3 other people you currently support. Taxes may well be hidden to make this less obvious and more socially acceptable – but they will be there nonetheless. Even living off the land there will be taxes to pay.

    As for the LENR hardware, kwhilborn is right that it will be so simple that a local machine-shop could produce them, though major manufacturers would still make them more cheaply. Add to this the control-board and you have a device for around the $250 mark that would supply hot water, and maybe around the $500 mark for a generator to supply the electrical needs of a normal house (5kW or thereabouts) as well. This is manufacturing cost, of course – by the time it gets to the shop it will have profits and taxes added, and be 3-4 times this amount. It’s possible that I have over-estimated the costs here, since automated manufacturing will be cheap, but there are still those taxes to think about.

    My crystal ball is also smoky quartz – it’s hard to make any solid predictions about what companies will succeed, since that depends so much on the attitudes of the CEOs in those companies. Are they forward-looking or conservative? In general businesses succeed by starting forward-looking and then being conservative with what they have and protecting the status-quo. I would thus expect a new raft of start-ups to be most successful once LENR is commercialised.

    • Roger Bird Says:

      Does that smoky quartz crystal ball have a diameter of perhaps 10 inches? Is it smooth and spherical? If so, I will give you $100 for it.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        That was a bit allegorical – sorry to raise your hopes but I haven’t actually got a crystal ball. One that size would in any case be a crazy price. I saw some nice ones in Exeter (UK) last time I was there. I was actually hunting for Titanium so I went into all sorts of shops that might have had it. Your $100 might buy a 3″ ball, though.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        I am just trying to support my family.

    • Bob Says:

      Simon, I’m all over the map in what I see, it depends on the hour. I think the cores will be volume produced that everyone uses. Then there will be system integrators that put it all together for products, much like today. Electronic companies will specialize in control and communication solutions, software will evolve to a Real time CF operating system with that whole infrastructure becoming huge.

      Initially Home energy will be huge that sets of a wave of business. Then the Auto adaption will set of another wave of development. The two produce a 50 year boom to society busy making products and build-outs to support change.

      The real revolution may come in parallel and less obvious with commercial adaptation. As businesses realize they can control their own costs with cheap energy. Long term plans will be put in place to relocate to areas that best support their needs. With Cheap energy, automation through robotics will be pushed, launching a big new industry. The workers in the new factory will be very technical workers with very high productivity. Job hiring will be very selective, as it is almost a life time commitment to a corporate group. I see these groups doing indoor farming that raises food and fish for use by corporate employees. With much of the food cost removed and low energy costs, employees will be able to live nicely on small salaries, decreasing the cost of products and allowing business to compete with places like China. It will then be China’s problem as how to compete. they will need to automate to compete and then they have a huge worker problem.

      Work weeks will be reduced and retirements earlier, giving people more free time, so service businesses will grow greatly.

    • brucefast Says:

      “a lot of people who used to make things will be out of a job.”

      The whole automation produces unemployment argument has been around since cows decided to come home. So far once the automation has settled in, people end up working harder than they did before.

      It would be wonderful if we really got the leisure time that automation promises. I suspect that if it did it would look like shorter work weeks and longer vacations. However, so far the solution has just been, “we need more stuff”.

      Bob, “Initially Home energy will be huge that sets of a wave of business. Then the Auto adaption will set of another wave of development.”

      I think you’re right on home energy. Its so easy. First there’s home heat. But even when home electricity is attacked issues like crash safety, power to weight, therefore efficiency are off the table.

      I think, however, that in areas where electrical infrastructure already exists, power companies will be earlier adopters of large power plants. If electricity prices drop sufficiently it’ll motivate home owners to not convert to their own power system, therefore giving a return to the large systems. We may find, even, that home owners will permanently prefer grid power over having their own generator.

      Bob, “Then the Auto adaption will set of another wave of development.”

      I think you are thinking way to small here. All transportation will be fairly early to adopt: cars, trucks, ships, planes. From the moment that the world truly gets LENR, the transportation companies will have their R&D departments burning the midnight oil to get into the game early. This parallel development will cause the technology to come to fruition rather quickly. Albeit, in the R&D world, that’ll be at least 5 years, probably more like 10, from the “lights on” moment.

      I envision a third wave which will be recreation: camping power, recreational vehicle (defined broadly), sport boating, etc.

      The fourth wave that I see coming will be in technologies that we haven’t truly put a lot of thought into yet because they are inconceivable in our “expensive energy” world. This will include transformative vehicles (flying cars, jet packs etc.) and space travel. Other technologies that have been discussed like greenhousing and water purification will be in this wave, I believe. Certainly there’ll be a whole bunch of stuff that I/we haven’t thought of yet.

      I think that this fourth wave will truly bring in the NFE world.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bruce – in the UK at least, the government created jobs in government that mopped up the people that would otherwise have been unemployed. Those are not real jobs, and lead only to increased tax-levels. The number of laws and regulations has not so far shown any sign of decreasing, meaning that more people are needed to enforce them. I feel that the benefits of automation and increased productivity per person have thus been squandered by governments. Yes, buying more stuff has also been a factor in this.

        I would hope that power companies would be early adopters. It makes sense to us, but they may not see it that way. For most people, staying connected to the grid and paying less would be the best option. Here in rural France, however, even if the cost was very low, you still wouldn’t be able to heat your house with it – the grid capacity is only just adequate for current consumption levels.

        I’m really looking forward to your 3rd and 4th levels. That’s when it will get very interesting.

      • Bob Says:

        Bruce, interesting perspective.
        I agree, transportation will be very early adopters. The gating time to market will be getting safety approval. What I look forwards in transportation, besides the cost is once again having cars with styling and not all optimized for air flow. Styling will return and once again you can tell a Ford from a Chevy.
        I’m not so sure of the power companies being successful. People want independence from someone controlling their lives, many will op for home units for this reason alone. The power companies will have large costs associated with maintaining the grid and may no be able to compete. To succeed they will have to offer flat fee usage. There are so many variables in the equation that either of us could be right and maybe some different methodology will evolve.
        Your forth wave is where the fun and excitement will come from. I believe miniaturization of the technology will open new frontiers. A small system very well could enable jet packs and mobile everything. I still want the flying skateboard like in “Back to the future”. Once they figure that out, another level of breakthrough products will follow.

        I look at the transformation being offered by this technology and do not fear for jobs. Anyone willing to learn will be able to find employment with everything that will be evolving. With any big transformation, it will be painful for a while, but once it gets rolling it will offer many jobs.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        The reason that automation doesn’t give us the leisure time that we want is that the more objects that we get the more objects we want. Desires expand endlessly.

      • alaincoe Says:

        @roger bird
        “The reason that automation doesn’t give us the leisure time that we want is that the more objects that we get the more objects we want. ”
        true in USA, not true in france…
        but OK we look ridiculous, but our vacations are longer than our cars…

        people will do what is culturally their demand.

        another problem in US is that it is a superposition of a modern country and few third world countries (us call that communities)

      • Bob Says:

        Alain – You are making generalities that I disagree with. Some in the US want things at all cost, but that is a way over statement and a stereotype many in the world have. Almost every country has a stereotype that is generally wrong. Most American, per the statistics drive 5 year old cars. If you drive as much as we do here, you need reliable transportation, so we do tend to buy new cars more than most countries.

        Your from France and there are some pretty negative images of French people in this country. I won’t even bother to state them here, as I found them not to be true. People tend to label others with things that are negative. A lot of physiological reasons for that, but in general a lot of it isn’t true.

        Not sure what you were saying with your comment on US superposition. I suspect I know, but will hold comments until I know.

        I think your comments are wrng and misplaced.

      • alaincoe Says:

        @Bob
        ok, sorry, too much cliché I agree.
        some choice also as you say depend simply on geographic differences (lower density, less public transport, longer trips, longer cars).
        there are clearly difference in consumerism, relation to wealth and money, but I admit it is changing on both size.

        also what I’ve learned is that there is no “american” but many difference zone (est- coast, west coast, midwest, south,tx) and unique states, like there are different zone and countries in Europe…

        anyway the question was that if there was a strong increase in productivity, whether it will mechanically increase consumption and not reduce worktime.

        clearly there will be cultural difference about this answer, and of course individual differences…
        even generally speaking in history productivity have reduced work-time all over the world, even in the US, at least for the middle-class.

        about superposition of countries, it is a references to the fact that the poor communities and middle class communities don’t communicate much, and interact few… that one have statistic (demography, criminality, income, votes,) like an occidental country, and the other like a third world country.

        anyway this superposition is becoming a reality more and more in Europe with communautarism development, and the end of forced assimilation.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Everyone with a big mushy hot air balloon, all playing bumper car in the sky.

    • kwhilborn Says:

      I agree that with automation people will lose jobs. Welfare or made up government jobs might be in our future or we risk high crime or high prison populations.

      Since prison populations are probably cheaper I’d believe this first, although it’s sad we don’t have the forethought.

      Today one farmer on a combine can do more work than 200 men 100 years ago. Automation/computers hurt the workforce at ever turn. What jobs are safe?

      The printing industry is completely wipe out. Accountants are more like data entry clerks. Even bus drivers will probably be automated in 20 years.

      The governments must tax automated industries higher and help build social safety nets and a hire all government work force (perhaps jr police).

      I have no easy solutions, but governments must realize the directions we are facing, and understand that job loss does not always equal no work ethic.

      It is interesting. Either way that is independent of LENR technology.

      LENR will help all

      • Bob Says:

        Kwhilborn – I do not believe in false economies, having government make up jobs. That does nothing but shift the burden to the hard working tax payers.
        People can see that job requirements are changing, yet they refuse to prepare for the changing society. People drop out of school for various reasons, but they only hurt themselves and typically their decision affects us all in welfare costs and crime. People need to become responsible for themselves, stay in school and take coarses that prepare them for real world jobs.
        To just keep picking up the tab for people that refuse to prepare is killing the work ethic of America and the world. A study was done recently and they found that a welfare persone lived better than a typical guy working and paying taxes. If this continues, everyone will just quite and then our society will collapse.
        We must end the 49% of people not paying in, we have a grossly unfair system.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Kwhilborn – keeping someone in prison is more expensive than keeping them on unemployment benefits (welfare) – the minimum cost in the UK is around £30K per year for a minimum-security jail. Most people want a job – any job – rather than being unemployed, but there are few jobs to be had. My daughter is depressed by this, and is saying “what’s the point of getting the qualifications if there are no jobs?”. This is exacerbated by the teaching at her school, which doesn’t really make learning interesting.

        If automation reduces the number of man-hours to make a product, then the people who can no longer be employed by that factory must find another job. If there aren’t enough start-ups in new production to absorb the people, then there will be unemployment. The way companies, governments and employment works needs to be re-thought out to solve this problem. Automated production will become more and more the norm for new factories, and the world is a limited size – there will be few new markets to expand into. I think my daughter will find a job – she’s bright and thinks well, just suffering from the 16-year old blues and disaffection. There will be a lot who can’t find a suitable job.

        In the UK at least, the government is setting up a department to help youngsters find a job. This is lauded as a good thing, but it is in fact ridiculous. What the UK needs is more businesses to employ more people, not to increase the competition for the few jobs that there are. If the UK gets those businesses built, then the UK will be happy but the unemployment will of necessity go somewhere else in the world.

        A while back Iggy put up a video of the problems in Detroit, and there are various UK areas that are not much better. Automation is a good thing, since it generally makes a better product and does away with those boring repetitive jobs, but the problem of what to do with all those displaced workers and give them a productive and happy life needs to be thought about now. Our comments here are not going to have much effect, I know, but it will become a major problem. Paying people to go to college might be a start, and having a good education is in most cases a social benefit.

        This is a very thorny problem, and I think that conditions have been changing too fast for society to keep up with. At the moment it looks like we may have a generation who have never had a job and see no chance of one, and it is not surprising that people who can see no advancement in future are not going to be the most law-abiding of citizens.

        Government made-up jobs may the the lesser evil.

      • Bob Says:

        Simon – Great comments as usual!
        My granddaughter is going through the same issues. She is trying to decide what to take in college or if she wants to even go for the same reasons. Its very hard to give advice, as the future isn’t clear. In this country we are seeing shortages of the trades. That has been done by the older generation and as they retire there is real difficulty getting people to replace them. There is a start to having younger kids go into these professions. That will solve only a small part of the problem.

        I have mentioned vertical farming several times on this site. I believe this could be the long term solution. People growing everything they need off small acreage and trading any excess for other goods they may need. This will solve the unemployment by keeping people busy and at the same time producing food to feed themselves. I would like to see multilevel building built in the city to do the same thing. People go to work in urban farms. Have government build such structures and instead of putting them on welfare, give them jobs on the urban farms.

        I think that once cheap energy is here people will form small groups and intensely farm small plots of land for their own use and barter with other groups. Food exchanges may result from such groups. These groups would work to be self sufficient and may do their own group schools and share cars and expensive things. This would be a huge change for society, but huge changes are required for society to survive. We can no longer rely on a government that is spending us into bankruptcy and working to control every aspect of our lives.

        Aside: Swedish studies have shown that one acre of indoor farming can be made to be the equivalent of 2000 acres of normal faring. With these numbers, not much land will be required to support a large number of people. Some amazing numbers are also given for fish farming.

        Every aspect of our life needs to be reevaluated. School as we know them should be replaced with computer, internet learning. Kids would learn more without the indoctrination they get from teachers that don’t care or are pushing an agenda. Much of the cost to tax payers can be eliminated with proper restructuring.

        With all the changes possible, many traditional jobs will be eliminated, but many new possibilities will open up, people will just need to change their thinking and be open to new business opportunities. Those that have an entrepreneurial capability will thrive with the changes.

      • alaincoe Says:

        imagining that productivity gain, like automation, is evil is a bad reasoning.
        increasing productivity free some people from their current position, allowing them to do something else.

        the problem is that something else.
        you can tax the benefit and pay them for unemployment… depressive but working.
        you can give them other jobs in demanding domain.. but training might not match, and that new job might be annoying (like nurce, elder care, client relation).

        you can give them vacation… and moreover they will consume.

        you can keep the cash in the hand of the oligarchy and continue to exploit the lower workers to work for the oligarchy for more service…

        in the glorious 30 years 1945-75, the increase in productivity have been spred by various mean :
        – first build more of what was needed and increase salaries of workers (housing),
        – the increase vacations, leisure industry
        – increase protection (health, family)

        and inflation was a good tool to redistribute from oligarchy to the mass, without pain, since everybody was getting richer…

        today inflation is blocked by older that have invested in bonds and drive the economy. economy is still depressive, and everybody try to keep his wealth, and the strongest win: the oligarchy.

        with LENR one can expect a new Maslow window where we dare instead of fearing.

  6. RichardO Says:

    A number of people believe that we will see ultralow prices for this tech. I believe the opposite. I believe the key patent holders will try to keep prices articifically high …. just like the energy industry today (and other industries in general).

    Competition today frequently means a wink and sly smile between “competitors” as the price slowly climbs and quality drops. The only way to bypass these parasites is to come up with an open source design and can be made and refueled by anyone.

    • Bob Says:

      RichardO – I believe the patents won’t hold up well, as there are many ways to achieve the affect. I believe just the opposite, that once it goes mainstream there will be very strong competition and prices will reach low levels unimagined. None of us really know at this point, the fun is in the guessing. You might be right?

    • Simon Derricutt Says:

      Richard – it looks like patents will not really be enforceable, even if they are granted. The key patent in Nickel-Hydrogen will be Piantelli’s one, and that has lapsed. All you can really patent is the control systems, and any competent engineer can make something that does the same thing a different way once they realise the way it is done. This, I think, is the reason for all the secrecy at the moment.

      There will be open-sourced versions, and maybe as with Linux there will be a worldwide communal effort to improve it.

      • Bob Says:

        Exactly! This is why we see the paranoia from Rossi and defkalion, both know that the minute the ship the race will be on to reverse engineer and be in competition. Rossi gearing of fpor a million units for getting market share and low pricing is the only real path he has.
        Even if the patents hold up, US law prohibits monopolies, so if someone violates a patent, they just need to pay reasonable royalties. If two companies don’t come to an agreement then the court will set it. Let says the court grants 8% royalties going down over time, to play in a trillion dollar market, not a bad price of entry. The 8% royalties is a tax deduction, so in reality its more like 5%. If would seem that a good manufacturer with a superior design could not only make up this difference but flourish. Patents will not stop this market, some lawyers will get rich, but when its over there will be many producers.

    • Roger Bird Says:

      I think that that is just left wing paranoid nonsense. My utility bill (includes electricity, gas, water, and waste water) just went down 10.2%. There hundreds of natural gas providers in the US. They can’t possibly all get together and fix prices. RichardO is still living a hundred years ago when Progressive ideas actually meant something. The biggest restrict of human freedom in the USA is the federal government.

  7. Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

    Desalination! Cheap clean water means a revolution in agriculture around the world. Two million children a year will not have to die because they lack safe water. Desserts will bloom. Hunger will be drastically reduced. Designing and building huge desalination plants and small local plants will create jobs and give a boost to the construction industry.

    • Bob Says:

      Bernie – wouldn’t it be great if the oil and gas pipelines could be converted to caring water from desalination plants along the coast. We could build a whole waterway system to cities, towns and farm. Not only would it create a green revolution, but there would be a lot of job maintaining and managing the pump stations. This would also be an excellent way to piggyback fiber optics for a fast national backbone.
      No expensive routing of electricity, way station and pumps all LENR driven.
      No more fighting over water rights or depleting aqua aquifers like the Oglala.

    • Simon Derricutt Says:

      Bernie – rather than desalination, which is only really useful near the sea or within pipeline distance, why not run a refrigerated tube to condense water out of the air? Even where there is no rainfall, there is mostly a fair amount of water in the air above even deserts – it just doesn’t get cold enough to condense out as rain. This device would therefore be universally useful to provide water far from the oceans.

      • Bob Says:

        Simon – Thats an interesting idea. I wonder how much water we could get that way. I wonder if we put up condensation farms if it would provide enough water for a town. May have to sharpen the pencile for this one.

  8. David Says:

    L.E.N.R interested?

    We are looking for users from different countries who can help us translate and compile information concerning lenr.

    / David
    http://www.lenrforum.eu

  9. Bob Says:

    Thinking about the title of this thread,”Who will be the big players”, I did some study of various market leaders. My Top picks are:

    United Technologies
    HP
    Johnson Controls
    Honeywell
    Some Motivated Power Company
    Texas Instruments

    I’m sure everyone has their own set of criteria, but based on mine this is what I came up with. I probably missed the obvious best, but if I was going to go knock on doors and sell my design, this is where I would start.

    • Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

      How about GE or Siemans?

      • Bob Says:

        They would seem like good candidates, but GE doesn’t seem to have high volume manufacturing mentality. If they were motivated they sure could. I think Siemans is a better candidate of the two.

    • Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

      I have been trying to find pure plays in the desalination field, not too many out there, Siemans and GE to a lessor extent are both into desalination.

      • Bob Says:

        I keep hoping that the power companies step forward and take over this area. If they realize their grid and associated revenue will fade away, I would think they would look for a survival strategy. A desalinization station has a lot in common with a big power station. Building out of a piping system would fit well into their expertise. It seems like a natural fit to me, but then what do I know about Power Companies.
        The Israelis or Saudi Arabia may be interested in pioneering this. I personally view this as one of the real exciting areas for early development, the payback is huge.
        I looked at mining the Ocean for minerals, but I don’t think the payback is there, you need to move a tremendous amount of water and use a lot of electricity.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bob – mining the oceans to extract various minerals should be easier now. I can’t find the link, but I remember seeing projects using bioengineered bacteria/algae quite a few years ago. Use the cells to concentrate the minerals you want, then extract them from the concentrated source. Most of the work is done by the cells, and so it becomes economically viable with today’s energy costs. At the time they were looking at Gold, Platinum etc., but if they could extract Mercury then it would have a double advantage of making the fish safer to eat, too.

      • Bob Says:

        Simon – That’s very interesting. A while back I ran across an article about the electricity and how much water was required to extract anything. I did the math and got very discouraged. It sounds like I gave up to early. Your biologic approach sounds interesting. I will Search some more. It seems like a desalinization plant would be a natural for having an associated mineral mining plant next to it. It would be great like you say, to remove mercury before sending any water inland.

        Stupid question on my part. If you convert Sea water to steam, I had assumed that minerals like Mercury would be left in the brine. Is this a good assumption?

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bob – I’d assume that any desalination plant (either reverse osmosis or distillation) would leave all the minerals concentrated, thus making it easier if you did want to extract any minerals from the outflow. Since you are moving that water anyway, the extra effort to plate out the metals would seem to be a good idea. I think that the bio method would not work in the concentrated seawater, though – too high an osmotic pressure for the cells so they would shrivel and die. With NFE the electricity would not be a problem, so the older methods would be used. There are also methods of generating electricity from wave-motion, and so a floating platform that uses wave-power would have only setup and maintenance costs, even without LENR. It’s probably viable now, and would become more so as the cost of minerals rises.

      • Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

        I have been associated with Power Companies, very bureocratic, it will take them a decade to react to LENR.

        Simon: Mining in conjunction with desalination is very interesting, I expect huge plants for agriculture application. I have also been associated with Mining companies, they do react fast and construct huge projects……..could be a synergy there!

      • Bob Says:

        Bernie – I had not thought in terms of mining companies. That’s a very interesting comment. My old neighbor runs a mining company that operates all over the world. Have to give him a call and see what the tea leaves look like.

        I agree totally with your power company perspective. Have had conversations and they just want to see one working before they spend time. Very skeptical about anything doing away with their grid!

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        With nearly-free electricity, either from LENR, waves or solar, you could run a reverse-osmosis desalination plant. The brine output from that could be run through an electrolyser to remove at least some of the metals for refining – this would probably produce some Hydrogen and Oxygen too as a by-product which could also be either sold or used to create more power. For lab work, people often use Platinum electrodes, but Carbon (maybe as graphene sheets, so little contamination of the metals with Carbon) would probably be an acceptable substitute for commercial exploitation. It looks like a lot of oxides could be reduced to metals cheaply by using Hydrogen in a sparked environment to produce the hydride which can then be decomposed by heating, which would be an economical way of producing difficult metals such as Titanium – I’ll have to find out if it works for Aluminium. Although the metals should plate out as metal, they will be all mixed together and need separation, and various chemical processes may be needed in the refining sequence.

        To be viable as a method, it does need very cheap electricity and a market for all the products. I don’t know the concentration of Nickel in sea-water, but it is a possibility that enough could be extracted to keep the process running. The costs of running it could thus go down to maintenance and staffing, and it would thus be economically viable.

  10. Brad Arnold Says:

    LENR will eventually be open source like the burning of oil, coal, or natural gas. Application-wise, devices will become more and more intricate like car engines that burn gas now compared to the Model T.

  11. David Says:

    L.E.N.R chatt Today

    Ask a question today 19:00 Swedish timezon to Ian Bryce – Chief Investigator, Australian Skeptics.

    Also Peter Gluck will be online

    http://lenrforum.eu/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=132&p=316#p316

  12. Anony Mole Says:

    I recall myself and others pontificating about most of these topics in past posts here on NickelPower. At the time I think we were in some state of euphoria dreaming about NFE. I’m starting to question the whole premise now. Not of the existence of NFE, who knows if it will ever actually materialize, but of the impact of NFE on humanity and the world. Let me elaborate.

    Fossil fuels have allowed humanity to crank up the volume for the last 100 years when it comes to growth. Fossil fuels are undeniably the core cause as to why we have 7 billion people on this planet. Why we have incredible technology, space programs, shipping, mining, transportation, agriculture, commerce all of it growing logarithmically, and all due primarily to the existence and use of fossil fuels.

    We’ve had astronomic growth. Unsustainable growth. Growth that, until now, we’ve just assumed to be always available to us, to humanity. This growth curve, if maintained, will strip the planet of every useful resource within our children’s lifetime. Oil has given us the ability to grow at such a rate. Oddly enough though, it is the dwindling resource of oil that is forcing us to change our attitude toward growth. We are starting to think we can do more with less. The tightening of our belts is compelling us onto this course.

    If LENR were to actually arrive, lavishly lathering us all in NFE, just think of the exploitations that will be enabled. Sure there will be wondrous inventions, many of which we’ve discussed here, that may alleviate some of the impact and the burden of our avaricious consumption. But just think of the spurt to the growth rate if energy were nearly free. Oil was “nearly” free, comparatively, for the first 50 years of the 20th century and look what it did to spur growth then. With LENR, humanity won’t have to curb its growth rate whatsoever. With LENR we’ll HAVE to terraform Mars and mine the moon and asteroid belt to assuage our hunger for growth. Maybe we’re better off delaying NFE for another 20 or 30 years. At least then we’ll learn to live within our means.

    • Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

      I think you are getting your wish, it is clear to me there is an effort to delay LENR. But it is not so that we will learn to live within our means. It is being delayed until the power/financial/military structure can learn how to control it for their benefit.

      • Bob Says:

        Bernie, this has been my biggest concern when I heard about Rossi relighting the Cold Fusion fire. I think the only way we get around this is open source with a lot of how to documents, that and pressure from places like China adapting it.

      • Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

        Bob, I agree. The best thing that could happen for LENR is China to announce a break through in LENR. Just like Sputnik, the US would go crazy trying to “catch up”. We would have an E-cat in every home within three years. (:

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bernie – since it looks like there are some papers published from the University of Beijing, and they look interesting, I would think that there’s a fair chance that they will get something. The nice thing, of course, is that they are publishing it, though we don’t know what else they are doing or how close they actually are. If they get there first, would they publish or just start producing? Either way, it would be fortunate for us.

      • Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

        Simon: Please give us the Chinese sites that are publishing, I agree, I doubt they will publish cutting edge, but just seeing what they are publishing, maybe we can multiply by two. (: Thanks in advance.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bernie – I found some bits on lenr-canr.org – try http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/ZhangWScharacteri.pdf or start at http://lenr-canr.org/wordpress/?page_id=1081 and hunt around. This .pdf is from Beijing University. You can spend many hours hunting through Jed Rothwell’s site – if you hunt on subject you’ll miss some things, but going through alphabetically (even skimming) catches everything.

      • Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

        Simon: Thanks that will keep me busy for a month or so.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Yup – certainly will. The chinese-sounding names are spread throughout, and a lot are stateside rather than China, but it seems that they’ve been working on it without stopping.

    • Bob Says:

      Anony Mole – I disagree with your premise. Modernization brings with it the automatic reduction in family size. People don’t need big families to help with the business or assure that they are taken care of in their old age. I think a revolution in energy will greatly slow population growth and the demand for resources. We will have all the water we need and with cheap heat the construction of buildings can be reduced. Like you say, maybe we start mining the moon and asteroid belt. I don’t view this as a big issue myself. Science seems to always come to the rescue and find new ways to do things better. It is not mans nature to quit and stand still, I hope we don’t become the first generation to do so. Their are crazy people pushing agenda 21, but they need to be pushed away with their crazy ideas.

      • alaincoe Says:

        right, all this fashion of malthusianis arguments…
        no resource, no energy, no water… have been frequently advanced at past period (before nazism, in end of 19th century).
        this is proved false. the resources are always either discovred, better used, or no bore usefull.
        that is the case for oil. we have both no more need of oil, and resource for hundreds years if LENr don’t work (with shale oil/gaz). same for rare earth… water is structurally recyclable, and it is energy/work bound. if you have cash or energy, there is no clean water problem.
        the stupidity told in public about water is amazing…
        same delusion as agains LENR or other pretended scientific certainty…

        some (Laurent Berthod french blogger) advance that multhusianist theories came from the elite being afraid to see many poor people invade their garden, and put dirts in it… they cannot admit it but they find a theory to justify exterminating the poors to keep their garden clean.
        then they manipulate the lower classes so they believe in their pretended fear of resource exhaustion…

        in fact the resource problem is only a problem of wealth, and it is a problem of wealth sharing. the rich don’t use efficiently their wealth to make a better life. trickle down is a myth, and most is waste, not even happiness of few.

        the only solution fro better sharing seems to be big technology revolution, like steam, car, or oil or LENR, that give work to the poors, then give them power to ask for a bigger share of the wealth (look at the 1900 period… communism fear lead to paternalism, then social system…)…
        it worked from 45 to 75, then the Reagan-thatcher revolution gave back the power to shareholder (to be honest workers took too much power, but today it is too much opposite)…

        LENR (which is work-bound, not resource-bound) will give power to the work, and no more to big-oil and all the corruption and centralization that is intrinsic to that rare resource-bound energy.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        One other thing that may prove useful is to mine the rubbish dumps. A lot of interesting materials are thrown away and sent to land-fill – in future these will probably be re-processed since the useful material/ton probably exceeds mining it from traditional sources.

        It takes energy to sort things into separate piles of useful material, whether you do it by smelting, electrolysis or picking things up – it’s one corollary of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. With NFE we can effectively recycle everything in a human timescale rather than wait for geologic processes to do it for us.

        With such effective recycling in place, the world could support many times the current level of humans. It’s not a question of resources, but how we use what we’ve got. Picture a large city, say around 30 miles in diameter. The current whole world population could all stand there. Build vertically high enough, and they might even be able to grow food and live there. It’s surprising just how small the population is when you look at it that way.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Simon, a real life example of mining rubbish dumps:

        I have an acquaintance who is retired from working for George Bush’s (the Elder) Apache Oil company. He says that in the old days, companies drilled down to “before time began”, meaning they stopped drilling when they reached rock that showed no fossil remains. The old guy claims that there was an old drunken geologist who protested that stopping where the fossils ended was wrong. His theory was that through millions of years, various cataclysms turned the sea floor upside-down. He begged the companies to drill 1,000ft deeper than “when time began”. No one listened…except for George the Elder. He started drilling deeper and immediately started striking bonanzas….but he kept quiet about it. He immediately started buy up other companies’ abandoned plugged wells, very cheaply. All he had to do was knock out the plug and drill a little deeper. Thus explains the genesis of a political dynasty….according to an old roustabout.

      • alaincoe Says:

        @simon derricutt
        right. energy give capacity to recycle.

        one also reason not to recycle things that are yet abundant, is that it is cheaper.
        one reason for know reserve to be 40years most of the time, is that whe it start to be shorter we look for new ones…

        for example, people say that we have only 40years of uranium.
        in fact just in france, with fertile U238 (that can be transformed in Pu239) and the Pu239, we have already 400 years of reserve just as nuclear waste (nicely sorted because retreated to be… recycled!). without need even for African mines.
        moreover uranium is a small cost of nuclear energy, so we could accept 10 times more expensive, like if you mine our own granitic zone, the sea water…

        there is the classic mis-reasoning of Malthusians, not to understand that humanity adapt to the needs.

        the farmer will normally pump as much as possible until ther is no water… waiting for the rain to refill it, or the houses to moan. provides house moan for shower, and rain continue, water will be recycled as fast as possible.

        also house water is not consumed but just retreated and could be reused (even as drinkin water).
        and the water which evaporate in the field or house, is simply filling the clouds to rain soon…

        the only problem of using water is you need to pump and filter it , if raining, again , or to clean it if flowing dirty, or to desalinize it if fallen in the sea.

        energy, energy, energy

        same for rare earth, metals, fertilizers…

        even oil could be resynthetized, at high cost, for plastics or transportation fuels (if lenr is not enough).

        nickel will be destroyed, but probably less than 1% of todays production, if well recycled

      • Bernie Koppenhofer Says:

        Simon, Iggy: Take a look at Sims Metal Management Limited (SGM) a metals recycler, what do you think?

        Now I am thinking of investing in junk yards, you guys are making me think too much. (:

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bernie – they’ve been going almost a century, and their website certainly inspires confidence. They have a commitment to reducing water use and power use, and to reduce the unrecyclable waste. Such businesses will become more and more essential in the future, so I would reckon that it would be a safe investment. I am not an investor, though (no money) so my opinion is based on just looking at what will be needed and not on financial knowledge.

    • Anony Mole Says:

      Yes I’m aware of the tendency for affluence to help shrink family size. Mr. Roger Bird was kind enough to link to this site in a previous post, which demonstrates this: http://www.gapminder.org/

      If you follow Mr. Rosling’s theory then we must equip at least a third of the population (at least 7.5 billion by 2020) with the same economic station as that of current U.S. citizens. Call it 2 billion world citizens all requiring 2+ TVs, 2+ cars, a 3bedroom home (carpet, wood, copper, asphalt, paint, etc.), dozens of electronic gizmos, tons of fresh or nearly fresh food per year, hundreds of pounds of paper per year, hundreds of pounds of plastic, and so on and so forth. Take all the resources used so far to get the world’s current half billion affluent, a mind boggling and environmentally devastating amount – and multiply that by four! Never mind energy for now – the resource acquisition alone will slam the planet like we’ve never experience before. Throw NFE into the mix and you could probably use a multiple of six! 3 billion affluent people all demanding the highest standard of living. Tell me that’s not going to have one hell of a planetary impact.

      We all have faith in science. We’ve all, by definition, have lived in a time where an incredible science renaissance has indeed been capable of solving many of the worlds problems. But know that this has only been true in the last 100 years. We are biased to our own capabilities; we have no other perspective. We only know that science has always come through for us so we assume this will always be the case. Pretty dangerous thinking I’d say. And yes, I have been of the same mind, and generally believe this too. It’s only an unsettling feeling I have now that is forcing me to step back and review this attitude with a detached mind.

      Malthusian or not, one must admit that the current growth rate of human demand cannot be sustained. Free energy or not, our current growth rate will falter. My argument is that, perhaps, nearly free energy would accelerate the growth curve to the degree that when collapse does come, and it will, it will be sudden and traumatic. While a dwindling energy capacity would, by its very nature, start the reduction in this growth rate at a more moderate pace.

      Humans continue to prove that they will take and take without remorse or future consideration until it’s too late. Give them NFE now, before they’ve learned austerity and the temperance of their demands and then be forced to sit back and watch the next boom in unrestrained consumption.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Anony – As Alain says, most things need just energy to recycle them, so though the demand for things will go up as more affluence burgeons, the demand for resources should stabilise and maybe go down. There are going to be a lot of people whose hours need to be usefully filled, and recycling rubbish into usable items is an honourable pastime. I do a lot of this myself.

        Science advances at an exponential rate – the more we know, the more we can think of new ideas of how to do things. Barring catastrophes in the climate or volcanic eruption in Yellowstone, this looks to continue. Even catastrophes in one country are swallowed and overcome – look at Japan with the tsunami last year.

  13. Roger Bird Says:

    When LENR is recognized, then a whole bunch of things labeled as junk science will have to be revisited, in particular the biological transmutation of elements.

  14. Greg goble Says:

    I predict a Presidential State of the Union Address by the end of September announcing new safe LENR (low energy nuclear reaction) devices now entering the marketplace.

    Brillouin and Ecat – U.S. & Defkalion – Europe

    He will also announce LENR as a plank in his platform and that when elected his administration will do everything possible to usher in the Transmutation Era (clean fusion); an end to coal, oil, dirty nuclear, fracking, tar sands, deep sea oil wells, pipelines, deforestation for charcoal production, acid rains, mercury poisoning, global warming, and all the power struggles and wars that such entails.

    Mark my words… the President has little choice… these devices are emerging in the marketplace now… he does know about them… the choice is to grab this opportunity… or let it wash over and past him leaving Obama floundering in the wake of this “game changing” news… not likely; hence my prediction.

    http://brillouinenergy.com/
    http://www.ecat.com/
    http://www.defkalion-energy.com/

    Study these and smile and share the good news.
    Especially with the politicos and activists you know.
    Or with anyone who feels a bit down on energy.
    End of the Fire Era – We enter the Transmutation Era
    (LENR, etc.) Popularly known as Cold Fusion

    …love Love LOVE Love love…
    Gregory Byron Sprout Amir Goble

    PPS

    The above was posted to a few facebook sights earlier today.
    Then I sent it to the President in reply to a contribution request… along w/ $5.
    Thanks! Let me know what you think about or do with this.

    GBGoble

    • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

      I agree that your prediction is a very real possibility. In presidential politics, this is called “An October Surprise”. If Obama does make such an announcement, he’ll probably claim credit for nurturing the development of LENR

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        I’ll go further out on a limb and predict that John Fredriksen is a prime backer for Defkalion.

        “Defkalion’s ownership has not been revealed but it is
        apparently owned by a holding company called Praxen Defkalion Green Technologies Ltd which is based in the island nation of Cyprus.” http://energycatalyzer3.com/news/a-little-more-from-defkalion

        “John Fredriksen, (born 10 May 1944) is a Norwegian-born Cypriot oil tanker and shipping tycoon, owner of the world’s largest oil tanker fleet, and was Norway’s richest man until
        he chose to abandon his Norwegian citizenship and take up a Cypriot passport.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Fredriksen

      • Roger Bird Says:

        And who wants to bet me even money that John Fredriksen gave up his Norwegian citizenship and became a Cypriot because of very high Norwegian taxes? So the Cypriots gain the benefit of having a highly successful, wealthy, and tax paying citizen in their midsts, and the Norwegians are out of luck.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Just as I thought: Cyprus is 20th on the Economic Freedom Index (http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking) and Norway is 40th.

        Hong Kong is 1st, believe it or not, and the USA is 10th. North Korea, the Left’s favorite data point to ignore, is dead last.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        And, Iggy, the worse part is that most of the kool-aid drinking ObaMaoists will believe him.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Cypress, while possibly not as friendly to domestic industries, may figure they can skim small profits from shipping companies because the ships never have to sail within sight of their island. Home Port for a tanker or
        freighter is just a bookkeeping entry. The same for Fredriksen’s citizenship. He may not actually spend much time there.

        The new world’s “Cypress” is Bermuda, Bahamas, and the Cayman Islands.

        During the boom, Fredriksen’s tanker company, Frontline, was a great investment and paid a splendid dividend. Now with the recession, it’s not so hot. I own stock in his sea farming company, Marine Harvest. It’s the world’s largest producer of ocean farm raised salmon. IMHO, Marine Harvest is a bargain now because its priced is depressed due to the current salmon glut. Once the Chinese emerging middle class discovers salmon……

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Iggy, I don’t find salmon to be any kind of a steal (cost wise).

        But, the emerging Chinese middle class will happen gradually, and any and all salmon producers will have plenty of time to adapt to the greater demand.

        What I find interesting is mid-ocean fishing. Talk about wide open spaces! If the cold nutrient rich water below 1000 feet below the surface of the sea can be accessed cheaply, the mid ocean can be made to bloom, and God knows (He told me) that we need more fish.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Top Entrepreneur Friendly Places To Live – Income Diary
        http://www.incomediary.com/top-entrepreneur-friendly-places-to-live
        Oct 26, 2009 – This island nation has no corporate income tax, no capital gains tax, no personal income … There are no personal income tax imposed and no tax information exchange …. The corporate tax rate in Cyprus is the lowest in EU.

    • brucefast Says:

      While I truly agree that LENR will enter the presidential campaign. However, I think it’ll be one of those rare phenomena that both the Democrats and the Republicans can agree on. Both will be scrambling to take the high road, and take the credit, for LENR.

      That, of course, if something compelling gets out of these labs which inspire the world to buy into LENR.

    • Brad Arnold Says:

      Good luck. I am pretty sure President Obama has no intention of popularizing LENR, especially before an election. The philosophy of abundance (as opposed to scarcity) is not a proven winning political strategy. Instead, LENR is both a highly disruptive energy technology, but it’s too-good-to-be-true promise makes it hard to believe.

      Man often scoffs at things he has never seen or does not understand.

      But none believed, for men are always doubtful of things they have not seen with their own eyes.

      The worse thing that could happen is President Obama gets up on the stump and makes a speech proclaiming the emergence of a new clean very cheap and super abundant energy technology, and then watch his proclamation fall flat on disbelieving ears, or bring about a market reaction that damaged the short term stability of the US economy.

    • Roger Bird Says:

      Greg, first you sent $5 to ObaMao, then even worse you sent news of LENR to ObaMao. We don’t need any more government interference. We already have way too much government and not enough freedom. I can’t scratch my ass without a government permit. Whatever happened to the word “freedom” as a real value and goal rather than just empty and meaningless noise coming out of people’s mouths. Most of the stuff in the Constitution was to protect us from big government, like the separation of powers. The US federal government is currently the largest organized group of people in the history of the world, and getting bigger as long as ObaMao is in power.

  15. Roger Bird Says:

    But, Greg goble, your prediction may be right. I hope not.

    • Greg Goble Says:

      Obama knows of emeging LENR (republicans support it)
      LENR is about to reach the marketplace (not just in the U.S.)
      When it does it will be BIG in the news (by the end of the year)
      Nothing Obama can do to stop it (supressed LENR is busting out)
      Will he ride the wave or flounder behind (is he smart or stupid)

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Greg, I doubt if it is a matter of smart or stupid. He is surrounded by a bubble of perspectives/viewpoints which currently can’t deal with nearly free energy. Even very smart people who come here often times turn away from it because it is too good to be true and violates current theory. IQ is the slave of perspective and motivation, not the other way around. Only a very few can see past their perspective/viewpoint.

        I am hoping that we get past the election in November before it becomes obvious that the world is going to change big time. I don’t want either party to try to gain any advantage from LENR.

    • Greg Goble Says:

      I try to place the timing correctely. Certification of home LENR heating devices in Europe or the U.S. by August 30th, 2012. Mark my word, Set the world on edge, Go or lose the lead. Mark, set, go! First place or last in the race to the new world order…. free (or nearly free) energy for all… time to tool up and produce! The first to realize this wins. Who wins the win win game changing plan that this is will be honored as a genius. A living legacy… What an opportunity… Why not? Obama froths for this. Or is he completely or partially unaware? Blinders on… great… this is stellar. Watch the birdie…..

  16. Greg Goble Says:

    In the long run LENR is a win win situation for everone. Even the short-time big-time losers will reap benefits fairly quickly. It is difficult to understand or believe in the sessation of againstness (I know you – you are just like me) as an end of the effects of ‘divide and conqueor’ streategies. It’s the ‘end of the world’ as we know it… funny that this is actually a GOOD thing to have happen; not as we are led to believe.

    • Simon Derricutt Says:

      Greg – it will be a win situation for most Western states – at least those who do not depend upon oil income. For the mostly Arab states that depend upon the income from their oil in order to shore up their economies, it’s going to be a disaster. Nigeria, too, depends upon its oil to keep the country running. Once the first LENR device for either home or power-station use gets sold, the oil-producing nations will have around a decade to rebuild their economies to do something else. If they’ve saved and invested the oil income, then they will be better off than most – it seems to me (correct me on this?) that most oil-producing nations have blown their windfalls on snazzy buildings and luxuries rather than building a decent economy.

      The big oil companies have time and money enough to diversify and make a good business doing something else – short-term losses (investments in the future) but long-term stability. The oil-producing countries will have social unrest, changes of governments, and possibly coups and civil wars without that constant supply of lots of money coming in.

    • Bob Says:

      I don’t think LENR will get a big play before the election. The disruption is so big that the government will fight to slow it down. Our oil policy is crazy, no pipeline, but we have doubled imports from Brazil this year. who knows for sure what will happen, nothing makes logical sense.

      I aggree that the oil producing states will be hit hard, but that isn’t all bad. Many of these countries finance terrorism with their oil money, so if that goes away the ability to wage war will be crippled. Saudi Arabia was trying to buy plastic factories from the US a few years back, but I never followed the story to see if they got them running.

      I think it will take a couple of years to get the world to wake up to the technology, but once it starts it will be a sea change with significant chunks of infrastructure replaced within 5 years. The conversion may be the fastest in history for any new technology adaption.

      History has not been kind to companies facing replacement by new technology. I think the Oil companies will fade away and if they survive, we be just shadows of what they are now.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        “I don’t think LENR will get a big play before the election. The disruption is so big that the government will fight to slow it down.”

        Preventing economic disruption is not part of Obama’s
        agenda. Getting reelected is job-1. He might even consider societal and economic disruption as a big opportunity to attain his socialist goals. Remember that during his campaign he stated that he wanted to bankrupt coal burning utilities. How frustrated he must be that he has only been able to bankrupt his beloved green companies such as Solyndra and Beacon Power.

      • Bob Says:

        Iggy – I agree with what you said, but think he is cautious to do anything as I will set off panick to a lot of pople affected. While I think he wants to dismantle our whole system, he isn’t willing to risk the blowback until after the election. Then again, he could be crazy enough to go ahead anyway. Just one guys opinion.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        “he isn’t willing to risk the blowback until after the election”

        That’s the beauty of an October Surprise. A few weeks is long enough to sway public opinion but not long enough to affect the economy.

      • brucefast Says:

        I quite disagree with you guys. I think that Obama will push it as the “green” solution. I think that the Republicans will push it from a national security perspective — we won’t need to be dependent on foreign oil.

      • Greg Goble Says:

        If an LENR device hits the market before the election (in Europe or the U.S.) than the “plank” will be the sound of LENR in the news. Does Obama have his “finger” on the pulse of U.S. certification? Is Europe going to break first? Will a republican candidate grab this plank as their own?
        What is going through the mind of the President? LENR considerations or not?

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        It’ll be a tough decision for Obama, ’cause the advent of LENR will be the death-knell of most other green technologies like wind and solar. So far, there has been a thundering silence from the Greenie Church. If Defkalion starts to break, Obama will be
        tempted to jump in front of Def’s parade.

        Obama and Fredriksen hate each other. Obama’s administration has accused Fredriksen of trying manipulate oil prices.
        http://tinyurl.com/OilShipperSued

      • Greg Goble Says:

        oops! I meant to put this here….
        I try to place the timing correctely. Certification of home LENR heating devices in Europe or the U.S. by August 30th, 2012. Mark my word, Set the world on edge, Go or lose the lead. Mark, set, go! First place or last in the race to the new world order…. free (or nearly free) energy for all… time to tool up and produce! The first to realize this wins. Who wins the win win game changing plan that this is will be honored as a genius. A living legacy… What an opportunity… Why not? Obama froths for this. Or is he completely or partially unaware? Blinders on… great… this is stellar. Watch the birdie…..

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Andrea Rossi
        April 14th, 2012 at 3:50 AM

        Dear Daniele Poponi,

        I agree with you.
        The certification process is going on. By the way, yesterday I spent all the day with the certification engineers and we made substantial progress. In this very moment I am working at my desk to make the paper work they asked me yesterday. It will take all today (Saturday) and tomorrow (Sunday), just to give you an idea of our endeavours on this issue.
        Warm Regards,
        A.R.
        http://rossilivecat.com/

      • alaincoe Says:

        @greg gobble
        “Why not? Obama froths for this. Or is he completely or partially unaware? Blinders on… great… this is stellar. Watch the birdie…..”

        the maintream is uncounsciously hiding the facts to ignore the inconvenient facts.
        Obama is not informed by his advisors who either are not informed by fearful subordinate, or they are themselves fearfull to talk about that, if not as a reality, but even as a possibility.

        that nobody is trying even to escape from a low probability it might be true and destroy all their businesses, savings and strategies, is the proof there there is a denial in process, not anormal doubt…

        this kind of mainstream deciders accepte low probability risks, and act according to them, but they don’t react to a massive risk that is incredibly credible…

        Collective delusion, as for many previous story (enron, subprimes, Chalenger, …and why not T-bonds, cimatology, dollar,…)

        http://www.lenrforum.eu/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=40

        sorry to repeat, but few seems to have accepted Benabou theory as validated by facts.

      • Bob Says:

        I think the government will not want to move forward with this. The DOE is conveniently ignoring the topic as seen by their $0 dollar investment in 2012 in LENR. The people at the DOE are scared, they all could lose their jobs when this takes off. Not only that, they will look bad, having once again bet on the wrong horse, only to be outdone by private investments for pennies. Obama is clueless without the DOE approval and they will hold out as long as possible.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Bob, I take your theory as the one that makes the most sense so far with regard to what Obama will do. Obama knows nothing but what his government (no longer ours) tell him, and the DOE won’t say a word for fear of seeming like biased morons, which in fact they are.

  17. Greg Goble Says:

    India, China, and Japan will emerge with environmental LENR heating devices in 2012… or no later than 2013… mark my word. Only a fool would bet against me on this one. Call 724-670…….just look me up, just kidding… seriously though… not… or… so?

  18. Greg Goble Says:

    With warm regards and
    Electrifying anticipation the
    Race is on….

  19. Bob Says:

    Did I miss something in the news. I am curious as to why all the resent enthusiasim about the pending product release. Rossi has said that it will be next year hopefully. Defkalion, who knows, rumors of July, but only for Europe.
    I think things are looking better every day for the technology, but products in the market in 2012????

    • Roger Bird Says:

      It doesn’t matter if commercial LENR hits Europe first; that will cause the gold dust to hit the fan only a few days later.

      • Bob Says:

        That makes sense, but if MSM doesn’t mention it, it may take a while. I’m not convinced they will cover anything when products go on the market. I hope I’m wrong at the gold hits the fan, as they say.

  20. Anony Mole Says:

    +Greg Goble, this post, looks like it was made back in 2011, outlined the whole free energy (LENR) announcement, timeline and impact and all. (Found this originally looking for Steorn news…) Although the guy doesn’t mention LENR, I think that was the impetus.

    https://plus.google.com/u/0/113163888439328035664/posts/8fYj9X1qW88

    An odd, if fantastical sequence of events.

    • Bob Says:

      I bet the sequence of events doesn’t llok like what was stated in the article. Life has a way or throwing big curves into themix. It will be interesting to see what has been missed or what unintended consequences unfold.

  21. Roger Bird Says:

    We should be discussing this interview:

    http://pesn.mevio.com/?tab=eps#showContainer

    One of the big things is that Brillouin Energy’s system will not mess with the nickel lattice. I think that perhaps Brillouin Energy is ahead of the race.

    • Bob Says:

      This was very interesting. The comment that Nickel was not used and was just a Catalyst was most interesting in lite of SEM photos shown with big holes in the Nickel shown by others.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Bob, it is certain (sort of) that nickel can be reacted with. That does not mean that it is desirable. It would be like a wooden steamship burning up the deck chairs (to start with).

      • Bob Says:

        Roger, they also have said that there is no transmutation of metals, so it remains unclear to what extent the Nickel plays in their reaction. It would be interesting to see the comparative data with and without Nickel, so see how much it adds to the overall reaction. This is a different animal compared to Rossi.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Creating D, T, Q, and especially He would be transmutation of elements, whether they used that word or not. It seems to me that they are doing exactly what everyone else is doing except doing it better and understanding what they are doing. Assuming that they are right and telling the truth. It is possible that Rossi and Defkalion could not afford the He detection equipment or did not bother buying it, since the levels of He are very low and detecting He is very difficult, short of breathing it in and talking like a high pitched silly goose (joke).

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bob – in the report on Brillouin’s business plan, they state that not only is Hydrogen transmuted, but all available atoms in the reactor are as well. It is therefore the same as everyone else’s (unsurprisingly, if they are using Nickel) and the Nickel will get transmuted. The conditions they are using mean that less Nickel is transmuted, and more Hydrogen, so the catalyst lasts longer before it needs changing.

        Roger – yes, it is sort of like burning the decks to power a steamship (remember that in the original “80 days around the World” film with David Niven?). Most of the Nickel will, however, be unchanged and it can be purified again and reused. It’s pretty well unavoidable with this type of reactor, but any fuel-burning device needs periodic maintenance and replacement of worn parts. Since you can make easily-swappable cartridges with the fuel (Hydrogen) and catalyst (Nickel and a few other things) it’s much the same as swapping a gas-bottle on a portable stove or changing the cartridge in a printer. Brillouin’s design will make this probably an engineer’s job rather than a customer job, since I believe they are using high-pressure (over 20 bar and probably 60) Hydrogen, so it’s a bit more important to get it right.

    • Simon Derricutt Says:

      Roger – they say it will last 5 years. Firstly they are not driving it so hard (COP of 2.1 at the moment) and also I think they are using much higher Hydrogen concentration, so they end up getting the energy more from making Helium than transmuting the Nickel. But yes, it looks like they are ahead of the race, just not yet quite good enough to take the world by storm. I think they will produce something you can buy before the end of the year.

    • Anony Mole Says:

      Brillouin’s pulsed approach and seemingly rational demeanor (in juxtaposition to certain Italians) certainly lends credibility to their story, not to mention Standford and Los Alamos support. What still gets me at this point, after three recent scientific conferences and a flurry of what looks like new data (but really turns out to be old data), is that we’ve still got no knock-down, drag-out proof of commercially viable LENR. We’ve got 5-6 “commercial” enterprises now all claiming to be on the doorsteps of (almost) production ready prototypes, but we’re still working with with fractional energy output. Watts only. And although, Simon, it may be just a case of scaling it all up, I’m starting to have my doubts. We’ve got reproducible results now, one of the top o’ the list items I would have tested by now is, “can we get a kilowatt out of this thing yet?”

      Words, words and more words. Show me the LENR already. The way Brillouin, Piantelli, Celani, MIT, talk “oh we’ve had one of those running for months in the back room.” HA! Just more words. I won’t even broach the subject of AR and DGT. Each of these players must know in their hearts that the world does not take them seriously. That they need to produce a shiny star of proof to hold and and point to and say “SEE – WE TOLD YOU SO!”

      • Bob Says:

        Anony Mole – We all share your frustration! When a revolutionary technology is in sight, there is nothing tougher than waiting for that first horse to cross the finish line.

        Inventions take time and do not go to schedule, almost always be longer than planned. Those darn unknowns keep popping up and demand to be solved. I have watched things in the semiconductor languish for 10 years before it became real. The 2nd launch of CF/LENR has been a very recent thing again. Sure the academics have been slowly working on it, but the way they work it wold be another 10 years.
        Private companies smell the opportunity and are moving ahead. Some don’t know the Physics, some don’t have the electronics and the worst of all the money. Money isn’t falling out of trees, as this was labeled junk science and to get a money guy to open his wallet for something labeled scam or fraud is very tough, if not next to impossible.

        To get to the end line you need to boot yourself up, prove you have something worthwhile and then get something production worthy. If its going on the market, working 99% of the time under a wide range of conditions isn’t acceptable, it needs to be 100% with very small failure rates.

        On top control problems and adequate energy generation and good design you have finance and build a factory and that eats money. The tasks to overcome fore launching a revolution are huge, but it will happen because that’s what people do, it will just happen when it happens. With patent issues thrown in, I think things are progressing quite well. Some guy will pop up when you least expect it and show you the rabbit he had in his hat. Keep the faith.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Anony – The problem with scaling up is that it costs a lot of money, and these people are having to work on a shoestring (relatively to the hot fusion people, anyway). They would thus need to be certain that they know all the parameters required before building nice kW-sized reactors. Brillouin have not yet pushed the COP above 3 (last report 2.1) so their big reactor would not yet be commercially viable since electricity costs more than Natural Gas.

        I expect they will solve this problem, and thus make the shift to high-output devices you can actually buy. Regulatory issues mean that you may not be able to buy one this year, but I think they will start on the power-plant conversion project before the year is out, and that will be megawatts not kilowatts. Iggy’s fluidised bed is a sound idea, and there’s just a tweak or two needed to make it really good. Read Bob’s answer again – it’s all good reasons why it takes more time than we’d like.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Anony Mole, you used the word “should”, usually a sign of unclear thinking. Give us one good reason why any of the players “should” prove LENR, given their interests.

        Perhaps you are allowing your Internet-Software experience to influence your level of patience, a world where everything can be known in a moment: Like the speed of lightning: There: 140,000 miles per hour (and 54,000 degrees F thrown in for good measure.). That took about 30 seconds. Perhaps you should go away for a month or so and come back and check back on LENR (if we are still using that acronym). Remember that this is using an entirely new energy source, never before even imagined (I don’t see it in BattleStar Galactica) in the history of the world. It should take longer than the ipad or even a new technology or a new car model. Hot fusion has been working on their new technology using an old energy source for 60 years and they have yet to demonstrate a single watt of excess energy. I don’t see politicians complaining about that. We can at least be more patient than politicians.

        And it is confirmation on the level of Rossi and Defkalion much closer to home, in Berkeley even, my old stomping grounds.

      • Anony Mole Says:

        +Roger, yes, I do use the word “should” and yes again, I am reacting to my condensed sense of internet/development time, right on both. But my thinking is not unclear. LENR needs money. LENR has a stigma against it. Simon’s point down below about Catch-22 is right on for this argument. “Should” I change that word to “must”? They must produce a working version that can be held under the light and shown to be viable. Otherwise they’re all just promulgating the idea that LENR is fringe.

        I follow a company called New Energy Technologies (NENE). Spray on solar on windows, also seemingly fringe stuff. I recently received an email from them regarding a competitor I pointed out to them. In it they said:

        “We are currently in product development stages and do not have a product on the market or a time frame for when we may be ready for commercialization. We continue to make use of current intellectual property and new patent pending technologies to work towards and achieve specific product development goal.”

        These points are the same as the caveats surrounding LENR. BUT, what’s different about them is that they know that public, 3rd party verified demonstrations are an absolute necessity to fund their R&D. I feel I can “mostly” trust them due to the fact that they have publicly shown results. LENR’s publicly demonstrated results to date feel mostly like parlor tricks. So when I say, LENR enterprises must produce demonstrable results I do mean “must.”

        Simon’s Catch-22 affect can only be rectified when one party capitulates and/or takes an additional step to dissolve the quandary, and in this, I’m sure it won’t be the money side doing the capitulation.

  22. Simon Derricutt Says:

    Catch-22 in getting employemnt: you need experience in order to get a job, but you need a job to get the experience.

    Catch-22 in LENR: you need money to make a working kilowatt-sized LENR reactor, but you need a working kilowatt-sized LENR reactor to get the money.

    Since most people believe that LENR is either junk science or a scam, getting a working system requires people crazy enough to spend time on it, crazy enough to invest money in it, and yet sane enough to know what they are doing and to get a good result. Is it any surprise that it’s taking a long time to get to market for the few people who are attempting to produce a commercial version? Or that they do seem to be regarded as crazy or misguided or worse?

    If the theory for it was understood rather than the current couple of hundred conflicting ideas, then maybe the research could be more directed and produce results faster. Such research is bad for your career unless you are right and can prove you are right (by making a working kilowatt-sized LENR reactor; see catch-22 above).

    Yet another catch-22: to get money to do research in LENR, you need a good reputation, but if you want to do research in LENR your reputation is automatically destroyed. This applies in the States, at least, and probably in Europe thanks to Wikipedia, though it may not apply in Japan. We need that basic research, but it’s only going to start being done once a working kilowatt-sized LENR reactor is being sold.

    • Roger Bird Says:

      Simon, I get the feeling that you have not bothered to listen to the 91 minute interview. I know that it is long. And I don’t think that they actually mentioned “COP”.

      You might check out http://pesn.com/2012/04/19/9602078_Brillouin–Understanding_How_LENR_Works_Will_Enable_Us_to_Be_First/

      In my opinion, this is a slight breakthrough, but you are seeming to write as though it wasn’t.

    • Simon Derricutt Says:

      Roger – I had read that, and I’ve also read their business plan.
      http://pesn.com/2012/04/19/9602078_Brillouin–Understanding_How_LENR_Works_Will_Enable_Us_to_Be_First/Brillouin_Bus_Sum_4-5-12.pdf
      They are claiming, currently, COP=2.1 and are aiming for 3 in the last published research results. I think that they could get a good success story this year, but it’s not right now.

      I didn’t spend the 90-odd minutes listening to the interview.

      The point of the catch-22 post is that it is really hard to get this technology to the point of selling it. It’s hard to prove you can make a 1 (or multi) kilowatt device without having a working one, and you need the money to make one. Brillouin seem to be the right sort of crazy to do it.

      With interviews, I prefer to read them – information I hear goes in one ear and out the other unless I can take notes, and I since I have to thus write very fast I often can’t read them afterwards. That was a major problem as a student, too.

      I thus rate Brillouin on what they have published as to what the status of their development is. I tend to discount enthusiastic interviews unless I actually know the people involved or have access to the background data. Although Brillouin have good contacts and a basically sound and working device, they appear to have not yet scaled it up, and the published results are lab-scale devices of a few watts or maybe tens of watts. They need a lot of money to make the jump, and currently have $300K of the $2.1M they say they need. Yes, that’s 1/7th, and they are promising to be honest and account for all the money that they spend. Before they scale-up they need that COP of 3, which will take time and money, then more money for the scale-up. If I had money I would probably invest in them, since they have the makings of a good product, but it would only be money I could afford to lose – there’s still quite a few ways they could fail to make things work, as they themselves detail in their business plan – they are realistic about it.

      I’m pretty certain that we will hear when they reach COP=3, which is the break-even point. That is stated as when, not if, since I am pretty certain they will surpass that. The rest of the publicity is, I am afraid, a lot of hopes based upon reaching the magic number, and I thus discount it.

    • Bob Says:

      The Business link Simon gave is very interesting and is “SO” typical of a start-up environment. The have a promise of 20 million, but must succeed in demonstrating certain capabilities. This kind of investor is hedging their bets and trying to finance a sure thing. That’s called smart money. The people investing to few million are the risk takers that are betting a lot. Typically these people are technically savvy and understand the tradeoffs. For the Risk they demand a big chunk of your company that will give them typically controlling interest and make them unbelievably wealthy when you succeed. These guys understand things well enough that they give you just enough money that you don’t quite get to your target milestones, but you see the light at the end of the tunnel. You the ever ever enthusiastic engineer will come with hat in hand for more funding when you are just short of the desired goals. To not lose all your effort and time spent in the project you take their ridiculous evaluation and lose of ownership. Many time investers count on you being just a bit late and over budget to gain further control. Its a squeeze game.

      The control on your money is very tight, many times weekly meetings are held to see where the money went. Did you buy that cup of coffee with their money. It is an extremely frustrating environment not well suited for many personalities. In one of the start-ups I worked at the work environment was abysmal and depressing to walk into. In an effort to brighten up my work environment I brought a small tree to put by my desk and a small plant for one of my cabinets. Yes, it looked great, but within a week I had to remove said plants. The CEO and CFO were concerned that it sent the wrong message to investors walking through. My god, it looks like they bought plants with there money, we can’t give these guys money for they will squander it on things they don’t need. There are countless little things that face someone trying to develop a bleeding edge device.
      None of use really know what they are going through, so a little slack I believe to be appropriate at this point.

  23. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    I don’t have much experience with options but I took a flyer with Siemens, buying Jan 18, 2014 call options at strike price of $120. The value of the option has already increased 50% in just a few weeks. The current price of the stock is $102.68, so someone must be convinced that the stock is going to appreciate considerably over the next year.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    Another interesting stock is Babcock & Wilcox (BWC). MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, a private hedge fund operating in New York and London. In recent years Mason has accumulated 14,694,745 shares worth $374,275,155 as of Sep 30, 2012. Mason is second only to T. Rowe Price fund family in ownership of BWC. BWC is Mason’s largest investment.

    Notice the ethnic makeup of Mason’s key executives:

    Mr. Kenneth Mario Garschina
    Principal

    Mr. Michael Emil Martino
    Principal

    Mr. John Christopher Grizzetti
    Chief Financial Officer and Chief Compliance Officer

    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    Remember ST Microelectronics (STM)? They’re the company whose certification company certified Rossi’s warm-cat for safety. I believe I read that STM is actively engaged in cold fusion experimentation. STM is up almost 15% in the past 2 weeks.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    And lastly, GE is up 7 1/2% since Nov 7, 2012. I noticed in the NASA green energy report that Greg posted that GE was involved in planning new propulsion systems that utilized liquid natgas and LENR.

  24. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    I believe and hope that LENR will beat “hot fusion” to market but HF has the backing of big biz and big gov. After all, HF will tend to enhance and preserve the grid. The grid enables big biz and big gov to control the consumers and the citizenry.

    Nuclear fusion is one of the main topics at Nextbigfuture. I have summarized the state of nuclear fusion research before. A notable summary was made three years ago in mid-2010. I believed at the time that there could be multiple successful nuclear fusion project vying for commercial markets by 2018. Progress appears to be going a bit more slowly than previously hoped, but there are several possible projects (General Fusion, John Slough small space propulsion nuclear fusion system, Lawrenceville Plasma Physics – if they work out metal contamination and other issues and scale power) that could demonstrate net energy gain in the next couple of years.

    Commercialization Date targets

    General Fusion 2020 (targeting 4 cents per kwh)

    Helion Energy 2022 (about 5 cents per kwh and able to burn nuclear fission waste)

    Lockheed Compact Fusion 2023

    Tri-Alpha Energy (previously talked about 2015-2020, but now likely 2020-2025)

    Lawrenceville Plasma Physics – 4 years commercial after net energy gain proved. Say two years to prove net energy gain. Then 2019-2021 for a commercial reactor (2021 if we allow for 2 years of slippage). Could lower energy costs by ten times.

    EMC2 Fusion (?? No information for the last few years. US Navy is funding the work at a few million dollars per year)

    Muon Fusion – Research in Japan and at Star Scientific in Australia
    http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/05/nuclear-fusion-summary.html

    Rossi’s partner better have deep pockets.

    • BobN Says:

      Good summary. I thin it will take time to get this technology launched, but as it becomes more apparent that it is real, the money issue should resolve itself. Once its obvious its real, people will be throwing money at it and wanting a Piece of the action.

      When it is recognized as real, every corporation will need a LENR strategy to survive. Short term, money is an issue, but long term I think not.

      Its the timeline for everything that is my frustration. Five or 10 years to Launce an energy revolution is nothing in the scope of time, the problem, I’m getting old and don’t have the luxury of time. I want it now!

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