The end of the “skeptics” chapter?

Defkalion seems to have selected 7 independent testers.

Its a little unclear whether there will be one test with all involved, or 7 separate tests.  They plan to have the testing completed within 2 months.  (I selected ecatnews.com’s report because it contains some excellent hand-translation from Greek.)

Will this be the death-knell to the “skeptics” chapter of this most intriguing novel?  What will the next chapter be called, “Letting the world know”?  That’s my hope.  Will this demo tumble down into oblivion as the skeptics suspect?  ‘Must admit it’ll be rather hard for Defkalion to get out of this one unscathed.

As Defkalion’s business plan seems to be to sell a bunch of independent multi-million dollar factories, this kind of proof fits their model quite nicely.  Ie, this strategy makes good business sense.

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55 Responses to “The end of the “skeptics” chapter?”

  1. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    Hope the demo is a roaring success. Can’t imagine Defkalion inviting testers if they weren’t 100% confident in their product.

    • Josh Says:

      Didn’t Steorn request public tests… only to have those conducting the tests unanimously reject excess heat? Granted, I have no explanation of why anyone would do this – unless they were publicly trying to look confident while they privately sought investment funds.

  2. Brad Arnold Says:

    Cold fusion “violates the laws of physics” (LENR has been confirmed in hundreds of published scientific papers: http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJtallyofcol.pdf “Over 2 decades with over 100 experiments worldwide indicate LENR is real, much greater than chemical…” –Dennis M. Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center), so don’t count on “independent tester” (i.e. arguable to “skeptics”) validation to convince many minds.

    I just finished listening to a podcast from Australia by members of the Australian Skeptics Society (
    http://hw.libsyn.com/p/8/5/8/858b2948eaa141e4/the_skeptic_zone_170_120121.mp3?sid=8c648ae03e3d3d1a8a042cf64a6ee79b&l_sid=19150&l_eid=&l_mid=2874767&expiration=1328532309&hwt=d41aed4104d41dda7bde8c108e2fa8b5 ), and I urge you to listen to their “Three Legged Stool” way to evaluate fantastic claims. That is the sort of spacious reasoning that will be used to discourage investment until the E-Cat (or Defkalion’s device) is undeniably commercialized successfully.

    I agree with all the podcast’s facts (except they are real stupid about the “nuclear” part of it – for instance they think the water coming into contact with the E-Cat could be dangerously radioactive), but find their reasoning to be spacious verging on the magical. Perhaps they are fulling into the Black Swan fallacy, where because hundreds of thousands of white swans are seen, it is virtually impossible a black swan exists in nature.

  3. Simon Derricutt Says:

    Iggy – I totally agree. Whoopee!

    Brad – I spent a while reading the Aussie Skeptics site, so thanks for the link but I don’t really want to spend the time listening. The only way I can explain them is to say that maybe they just don’t understand the published papers, and are scared of anything with nuclear in the name. Maybe Cold Fusion was a good choice, after all….

    There are no Black Swans – I’ve never seen one myself and no-one can force me to accept the possibility!

  4. brucefast Says:

    I listened to the podcast that Brad Arnold linked to. Here is my experience.

    1, Unless you want to know what kind of beverage the host plans to drink (hot chocolate), skip to minute number 7. If you skip to minute #11, you will only have missed mention that there are 8 scientists who have stated support for the e-cat. The interview is fully over at minute #30. So the heart of the interview is about 20 minutes.

    2, The “three legged stool” presented by Ian Bryce (who was lambasted on this site for clearly over-stating his position) is as follows:
    > Leg 1: Is there a theory. He simply argues that there is not. While I’m not particularly confident of any of the theories, there certainly are a few flying around which were created by qualified theoreticians, The Widom-Larsen theory being of most note.
    > Leg 2: Is there data. Ian argues that the data which does exist is, well spurious at best. His critique of the data ignores the 18 hour test, and brings up all manner of trouble with the data that I doubt is really there at all.
    > Leg 3: Does the claimant have credibility. He then goes to take a couple of Rossi’s less than proud moments, and make a case that he is a scumbag.

    I challenge Ian Bryce to add a leg to his stool. That leg would be, are there others making a similar claim. In addition, the legs of his stool would need to be applied to these others as well. It would be interesting to see his analysis of the recent reports from Dr. Swartz. However the “Replicators” link provides a lot of support for this leg of the stool. (And Replicators limits itself to those who have achieved a reaction using nickel.) In doing so, it provides support for the other legs through the published reports from the other claimants.

    On others, Ian Bryce states the following:

    - In 1989 Pons and Fleischmann introduced “cold fusion”. “No one has been able to reproduce it.” Nasa, however, continues to publish that they did reproduce it — back in 1989.

    - That LENR, a similar science to that of “cold fusion” is a science in its infancy, and he strongly suspects that nothing has ever come out of it either. This is just childish self-aggrandizing as far as I am concerned. Further, I fail to see any difference between the sciences of LENR, LANR and cold fusion. LENR and LANR both seem to be attached to a particular theory. However, all of them seem to be talking about a nuclear reaction (that’s the NR part) in a bottle. The reaction seems to be moving atoms from a lower mass to a higher mass, so reasonably being referred to as fusion. I conclude that the abandonment of the “cold fusion” moniker is purely political, not scientific.

    In my opinion, therefore, Ian Bryce is a hack. He has not done his homework. He is speaking out of the wrong side of his anatomy.

    Ian Bryce, I challenge you you look seriously into LENR/LANR/cold fusion outside of the claims of Rossi. Feel free to start with the links found here: http://nickelpower.org/2011/12/30/replicators-as-if-december-30-2011/. Use the legs of your stool on these guys. If you find that there is something to this nuclear reaction in a bottle thing (and I don’t know how you cannot) you may want to revisit your Aussie students with a somewhat more positivistic report.

    Further, Ian Bryce, I warn you to keep a close eye on Defkalion. When either Rossi or Defkalion comes forth with a market-ready product, I urge Ian Bryce to get back to his Aussie students and get the facts straight. Failure on his part to do so, and quickly, should well open himself up to a lawsuit for lost investment income.

  5. Bob Norman Says:

    I think skeptics will be there till commercial success is well in hand. They refuse to look at facts, which leads me to believe that many of them are agenda driven with potential dollars involved.

    The tests should go a long way in telling us how real the technology is. Of coarse, the skeptics will grab at any straw to try and raise doubt, you can count on it. To most reasonable people, big strides in acceptance should be at hand if the tests go well. I doubt defkalion would have opened up to testing if they knew it wouldn’t go well.

    • brucefast Says:

      I think there’s two kinds of skeptics.

      The first are Blind skeptics, the ones who avoid looking at the data, well, they’ll believe it when their neighbors are benefiting directly from it. I wouldn’t call them skeptics at all, but pseudo-skeptics.

      The second are those of us who are rather sure that LENR has something to it, or would have if we had reason to believe that something was seriously pending. However, we wonder when this technology will become practical. Rossi isn’t that trustworthy of a source. Defkalion looks like it may be somebody riding on Rossi’s coat-tails. That LENR is in any way close to productized is something that many of us are not all that convinced of. A good public demo headed by people from qualified organizations, published on those organizations’ websites — it’ll address those skeptics.

      In any case, the skeptics still have a real voice. Once a high quality demo is done, their voice may still be skeptical, but it won’t be heard.

  6. Simon Derricutt Says:

    Bruce – thanks for saving us all the time. For theory I’m accepting the W-L one, since it makes sense and has Einstein’s tacit backing. The is a load of data from many sources, including Amoco – you might expect NASA to big things up somewhat, but an oil company experiment in 1990 where it was only made public recently? The credibility come from NI, no matter what Rossi has done in the past. That seems stable enough, and there are enough other replicators to convince anyone who can read that something there is real.

    Roger Bird published (on this blog) the people running Defkalion. Their background sure comes from good science and engineering with a bit of money thrown in. Not the sort of people I would expect to be running a scam in any case, and now they really are putting their system to public test. I expect we’ll see 7 positive results in time – they do say that setting up the tests is full of red-tape (I can believe that). Unless all 7 work, I expect that that will be the effective end of their business, livelihoods and reputations. They must be pretty sure to bet that much.

    It’s also pretty obvious that Rossi also expects the Defkalion tests to work, or he would not have promised such a low price for the Rossi version. By extension that also increases the likelihood that Rossi, too, is not blowing smoke.

    A lot of good news in this post.

  7. Roger Bird Says:

    Re: population issues. While in the Philippines, I noticed that most people were living close to the coasts of the islands, with very few people living away from the coasts. This is the case world wide.

  8. Roger Bird Says:

    A film about cold fusion:

    http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/psi-vid/2012/02/07/making-scientists-seem-human-through-film/

    • brucefast Says:

      This excites me! From watching the trailer, it really looks like this movie will present a positivistic view of cold fusion/LENR. It is frustratingly unclear when this video is going to come out. It’ll be interesting to see the effect if it comes before, after, or overlapping Defkalion’s big reveal.

      I’m toying around with making a formal post of this info, if anyone wants to wrap words around it, put it as a comment in Post and I’ll make it a post.

  9. Bob Says:

    Billionaire Sidney Kimmel donatyes 5.5 M to CF research.

    http://www.e-catworld.com/2012/02/billionaire-sidney-kimmel-to-donate-5-5-to-fund-university-of-missouri-cold-fusion-research/

    • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

      The money will be used to create the Sidney Kimmel Institute for Nuclear Renaissance, or LENR SKINR.

      Missouri, “The Show-Me State”.

  10. Bob Says:

    Dick Smith offers Rossi $1M to replicate test.

    http://blog.newenergytimes.com/2012/02/14/smith-offers-1-million-prize-for-successful-e-cat-demo/

    • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

      Sounds like a fair enough offer. Rossi might prefer to wait until he has his newest model ready, if he doesn’t have it.

    • brucefast Says:

      Yes, I saw this offer. I considered making it into a post.

      The short version of this is that Mr. Smith is so sure that Mr. Bryce has it right that he’s willing to bet a million bucks on it. However, I think Mr. Smith plans to win either way. If Rossi’s machine does prove true, he’s probably ready to engage with all manner of money-making opportunities.

      From Rossi’s perspective I think the timing is interesting. If Rossi can beat Defkalion to the punch, and be the first to provide concrete proof, it’ll be a positive note for him in the history books. If Defkalion beats him to the punch, not showing his hand no longer offers much value. Once Defkalion provides “the proof”, failure on Rossi’s part to match them will render as serious weekness on his part. I would contend that if Rossi doesn’t provide a proof case within a week of the completion of the first 48 hour test by Defkalon (assuming the results are properly announced) that Rossi is suffering from some sort of major technical glitch.

      Mr. Ross, I think you did right to pass up on the ultra-skeptic Ian Bryce, but this offer looks rather good to me. If Mr. Smith is willing to put the money in escrow and sign a clear delivery contract, I’d go for it if I were you.

      • Bob Says:

        I see that Leanado is now run by a group of investors, it may now be out of Rossi’s hands. If I was an investor I wouldn’t want him doing anything but getting ready for production.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        If I were those investors, I’d probably keep Rossi away from the engineers making it ready for production, too. Production engineering needs quality built-in to the processes and controls.

        Until those guys have done their job and fixed any reliability problems, it would be better to ignore calls for any more demos. A bad demo is not a good advertisement.

  11. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    Patho-skeptics, beware the Ides of March….if not sooner.
    (thought to have referred to the full moon, March 8 this year)

    For now we see through a glass, darkly…..

    • Roger Bird Says:

      In defense of the patho-skeptics, they can’t help being screwed up. If they would but recognize that they are screwed up, they could do a lot about it: yoga, meditation, pranayama, mudras, prayer, Buddhism, EFT, etc. etc. etc. Unfortunately, 99% of all people do not want to change, and that includes the change implied with getting better. And it is very difficult to change, even after a person decides to change.(:->)

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Roger – unfortunately you would have to prove to them beyond a shadow of doubt that such methods would indeed help them. Catch-22.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        You are absolutely right, Simon. In fact, some of those methods work better if you believe in them; so if you go into them skeptical, nothing is going to happen.

        I think that skepticism builds a barrier between the outside and the inside, between the consciousness and the unconsciousness, between feeling and thinking. Obviously, for external kinds of things like highways, rockets, energy machines, hydrogen bombs, and stripped toothpaste, this is a good thing. For subjective development, this is a bad thing.

        If they ask for money, skepticism is a good thing. Trust me on that.

      • Bob Says:

        Roger, the slowest movement for mankind, is the reach for the wallet. You can get a lot of people interested and even excited, but ask for money and watch the change. Its human nature and a good thing, it help one survive. Note everyone is honest!

  12. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    Dick Smith is the Donald Trump of DownUnder

    “Dick Smith Foods’ products are often named to parody the items they compete with – for example, in competition with Redheads matches, Smith sells near-identically packaged matches called “Dickheads” with the text on the rear stating “We would have to be complete dickheads to let most of our famous Australian brands be taken over by foreign companies.

    Smith has also attempted a number of well-publicised practical jokes, including the “attempt” to tow an iceberg from Antarctica to Australia to obtain more fresh water. In the early 1980s Dick Smith served as the conductor aboard a London double decker bus which jumped 15 motorcycles. The bus, driven by Hans Tholstrup, was a humorous poke at Evel Knievel who had visited Australia in 1979 and jumped his motorcycle over buses. Dick Smith’s presence on the bus was a last minute decision by himself.

    Smith is a founder and a patron of the Australian Skeptics. In July 1980, Smith collaborated with renowned skeptic James Randi to test water divining, offering a prize of $40,000 for a successful demonstration.”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Smith_%28entrepreneur%29

  13. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    Of all the skeptics, I like ‘GoatGuy’.

    Over a year ago he suggested using a large insulated container (like a commercial styrofoam seafood cooler) of water for the coolant. Simply measure the rise in temperature of the water over the span of the test.

    1. Two devices “A” and “B”
    2. Test [A with catalyst] and [B without catalyst] at same time.
    3. Test [B with catalyst] and [A without catalyst] at same time.
    4. Use differential calorimetry to measure results.

    #2 & #3 demonstrate that neither unit is “bugged”
    #4 remains a problem: collect the output and heat insulated vats of water.

    Things not stated, but required for good confirmation of their claims:

    • Independent kilowatt-hour meters for each unit
    • Weighing of expendable (heat-producing) material.
    • Collection and weighing of coolant (part of bulk-calorimetry)
    • Running collection from Zero completely through End, not just “during power pulse”
    • Independent confirmation of voltage and ampere flow (check the kilowatt-hour meters)
    • Ground-path ampere measure.

    http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/02/defkalion-would-accept-dick-smith-test.html#more

    • Simon Derricutt Says:

      Thanks Iggy – good quotes as usual. I also like GoatGuy’s approach, and it does seem that he hasn’t moved his goalposts by changing his requirements as earlier ones have been met. What he states is a reasonable minimum to get a valid result that is generally acceptable as proof.

      As I’ve said elsewhere, I think the reason that these tests have not been done is that until recently Defkalion were not sure that it would work to order. They had had enough success to be sure that they were on the right path, but it didn’t work every time. It looks like they have now fixed the problem and feel happy enough to demonstrate this publicly.

      Such proofs are not in fact really needed. What is needed is the UL (and TUV etc.) approvals and manufactured devices on sale. All the tests do is satisfy the armchair critics – or provide them with more things to complain about. Meantime, sell me one with a guarantee of my money back if it does not work substantially as advertised (I’m used to things being advertised as better than they are). If it saves me 80% of my power bill, I’d be a fool to send it back because it was advertised to save 90%.

  14. Roger Bird Says:

    I did a little research and thinking on David Christian Aurel, Craig’s nefarious Montenegro banker. First, like all liberal wankers, Craig thinks that meanie head bankers are in charge. In fact, the government was printing the money to create hyperinflation. Second, David Christian Aurel would have been only 30 years old in 1999, when the hyperinflation spree ended, when the Serbian government (who was really in charge) decided to adopt the German mark as it’s co-currency. When it started, around 1994, David Christian Aurel would have been a mere 24 years old. This sounds to me like he was mostly along for the ride in an economy phucked up by the government (as usual). Plus, David Christian Aurel is Swiss by nationality. It doesn’t sound to me like David Christian Aurel was some kind of incompetent cause of the mess. It sounds more like he was brought in later to help clean up the mess.

    • Craig Binns Says:

      Roger, I don’t think bankers are in charge. I simply don’t say: so and so is a banker so he must be credible as a cryofusion entrepreneur.

      Both here in the UK, and in the US, bankers have displayed unbridled greed and irresponsibility, and their reputation is rightly low. This as a result of predatory lending. The main banks, many of them, have been nationalised. The cost: hundreds of billions. The bankers are still trying to screw huge bonuses out of us. This has caused anger here among the general population, not merely the extreme left wing. Although by the standards of brainless insult and illiterate stupidity currently displayed by a large part of the political apparatus in the USA, most British people are on the extreme left wing!

      Tony Blair, the charlatan who used to be Prime Minister, is reaping the reward for his benign attitude to bankers: a lucrative sinecure at J P Morgan. Nobody here talks about him any more.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Craig – it’s too much of a generalisation to blame all the bankers – it’s also a general attitude amongst the investors too of expecting their money to appreciate without having to work for it. The ‘derivative’ market where the gains or losses of an investment depend upon a complex formula seem to me to be pure gambling – casino banking. I’m not savvy enough in this field, but I’ve seen explanations of it. This has echoes of the “south sea bubble” and other investment scams you mentioned earlier. To my mind, these sorts of things offer the possibility to get rich fast without working, and are made to appear ‘respectable’ (it’s put in a bank!) and more reliable than buying a lottery ticket (the honest way to get rich quick).

        The bonuses, much as I also hate them, are currently necessary since we’re in global competition to get the best people, and if other banks offer more money then they will get the ‘high flyers’ and we will get the pedestrians. Unless all the banks in the world trim this bonus culture at the same time we are stuck with it. Giving a bonus in the form of shares to the new RBS boss seems a good idea – if the shares go up he gets (a load) more money, yes, but we benefit a lot more by his mind being focussed on really doing a good job. If you want the best person, you pay more or they go somewhere else.

        If you shop at Waitrose/John Lewis, see how much farther those people will go to try to ensure you keep coming back – it’s in their personal interest as they have shares in the company.

        The group of people at Defkalion seem to me to have reputations they would like to keep and enhance. Given the difficulties of the technology, I would expect some carefully-controlled demos and some misdirections to gloss over the current shortcomings of the device until they have a final production version. I have worked for a start-up – this happens. Until the process is fully nailed down, there will be uncertainties. Big companies tend to write up their processes very carefully to avoid variations from site-to-site of what happens on the shop floor – this takes many man-years of work. At Xerox, one wag even put up a process notice in the toilets to highlight this tendency.

        In summary, although it is possible that it is a scam, the overwhelming sociological and scientific evidence points to it being real but not quite there yet.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Craig Binns said: “I simply don’t say: so and so is a banker so he must be credible as a cryofusion entrepreneur.” And I say to you, why not? Yes, it may be a coincidence; or he may have just turned bad or insane; or he (or she) may have been bad to start with. But when you get 10 people like that, the chance of a bad guy slipping through the filter of needing to maintain their good reputations seem extremely remote, sort of astronomically remote.

  15. Simon Derricutt Says:

    Thanks Roger for this research. It seems he’s clean. Slurring him would be a bit like blaming Robert Hester for the problems at RBS in the UK. The problems were before his time, and he’s doing a good job of fixing it.

    • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

      Off the subject but since today is ‘test day’, I just ordered DNA tests to hopefully learn more about my genetic heritage.

      The owner of the testing company is a very distant cousin with whom I’ve corresponded for a couple of decades.

      I’m a bit skeptical of how accurate such tests are but still, it’ll be kinda fun.

      • Bob Says:

        Never ask what you don’t want to know. LOL
        Let us know what you think of the testing, have been thinking of doing it myself. I always felt I must have come from royalty or someone important, just an innate feeling. ;-)

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Bob, you are absolutely right. Everyone, including you, is infinitely precious.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        “I always felt I must have come from royalty or someone important, just an innate feeling. ;-)”

        If you think about it, we’re all descended from royalty and nobility. Any such dignitary that lived 5 or 6 centuries ago and that had a dozen or so grandchildren, would almost surely be our ancestor. Each generation (about 25 years) the number of descendants should at least double. Or look at it in reverse. You’ve got 2 parents, 4 grandparents, 8 ggrandparents, etc. Pretty soon you’ve got more ancestors that there was world population at the time. Sounds impossible but the ‘catch’ is intermarriage. When cousins marry cousins, the ancestors don’t double because different lines share a common ancestor. So the the chances are, if you’re white with Western European roots, the chances are probably 98% that you’re a direct descendant of William the Conqueror. Of course we also descend from murderers, scoundrels, etc…..but they didn’t leave as good a records as nobility.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        It’s been said that Ghengis Khan is a direct ancestor of nearly every Asian, too. But then, with all that rape and pillage, he had to have left a few behind.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Simon, Khan was doing far more than rape. He like screwing big time. He did a lot of women aside from rape.

      • Bob Says:

        Iggy, I like your thinking! Genealogy is most interesting. My wife has been searching the records and has found out many things I had no idea of. Some good, some bad, but all interesting.

      • Bob Says:

        Simon, I like that, Bob Khan Norman, it does have a good ring to it. LOL

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Ghengis went through the Coulomb Barrier like the Blitzkrieg through the Maginot Line.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Iggy, the Blitzkrieg went around the Maginot line, and then it rammed itself up central France.

        Its a slow LENR news days, isn’t it.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Well, maybe Rossi went around the Coulomb Barrier.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        I am pretty sure that all LENR went around the Coulomb barrier.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        There history goes, rhyming with itself again.

  16. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    Genealogy makes history come alive. The trick is to immediately communicate with all the old timers in your family. They may can tell you someone that’s already done some of the work.

    • Bob Says:

      Iggy, you are so right on that one. A few years back I was sitting and talking with my grandmother who was 102 at the time and see told me her sister was captured by the Indians (Sioux) why going to town in their buckboard. I was shocked, how such wild west events could have happened to someone still alive. Society seems to be moving so fast. Listening to her describe the way they lived and survived on the plains (South Dakota) in her early years were amazing.
      There are so many things I grew up with that even my kids can’t relate to.
      I wonder if my grandchildren will wonder how we used such crude devices as oil burning engines for things. Can you imagine having to stop and refuel, oh the horror of it!

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        That was a keeper. Hope you got it on video or audio tape.

        Our county has a real nice pioneer museum. It would be cool to donate the county’s 1st LENR device to the museum.

        So far I’ve donated a gasoline powered iron (for ironing clothes). http://rogersarkansas.com/museum/donation/index.56.jpg

      • Bob Says:

        Iggy, I had never seen one of these irons, but I showed it to my wife and she said her grandmother used one just like it. The ones I remember were just irons you sat on the stove top and heated. Some of the old barns back home used to have things I had no idea how they worked, but the antique people discovered that area and descended on them. Until a few years ago almost every old barn was piled up with these type of things.
        I want to buy one of the first cars and put it away.

        By the way, they never found her sister, she disappeared.

  17. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    I just received part (the online report, hard copy later) of my DNA test results. Don’t waste your money. It’s a bunch of computer generated mumbo-jumbo.

    It rated my highest geographic source of ancestry as Czechoslovakia and Central Europe. I have extensive genealogical records and not one Czech. 98% of my ancestors have Anglo names. My known immigrants came from England, Wales, Scotland, and N Ireland, yet this expensive service showed almost no hits on the British Isles. Don’t get me wrong, I would be proud to have Czech ancestry but I don’t believe that I could possibly have a large amount of Czech blood.

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