On January 24, the always honest Steve Krivit posted, “The contract ended on January 15 and has been canceled by the university,” Braga said. “Therefore, there is no further relationship between the university and Rossi or his company.” (

What is the truth.

I sought a source that is closer than the memory of someone with a well-established bias, and found this:

Here is the text of the announcement of the University: 

Bologna, January 25, 2012 – The Department of Physics, University of Bologna says that the contract signed in June 2011 between the Department of Physics and the EFA Ltd. (the company owned by Italian Andrea Rossi) was terminated due to failure to meet the conditions of the terms. There’s no relationship between the Department and the EFA Ltd. in connection with this contract. However, the Department of Physics has made ​​available its experience and its equipment to carry out independent measurements on the production of heat by the equipment’s e-cat in order to provide an answer to the entire scientific community and the general public about the phenomenon. The measurement results will be published.  as translated by google translate.

Has google translate done a poor job, or is the U. of Bologna stating that they intend to give the world what we really want to know — a test only confirmed excess heat for an extended period of time as measured by a truly independent source, and PUBLISHED!

Krivit’s bad news looks like good news to me.  I don’t want to wait 2 years for the U. of Bologna to burn a half-million bucks to do their highfalutin analysis.  By then I expect to have my car running on e-cat power (yes, I’ll have to do the conversion myself.)  I want a 7 day test that establishes the bottom line.

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71 Responses to “Truth”

  1. Roger Bird Says:

    One of the perks about having the courage to remain uncertain in the face of uncertain evidence is that one will never look like an idiot and a moral retard in the future when certainty is established.

  2. peter193710 Says:

    Sometimes it is very difficult to distinguish between a polite formulation stating some scientific ethical principles and
    a real collaboration. We have no idea if this collaboration
    will start, and how and when. Zero real information.

    • brucefast Says:

      We have no idea if this collaboration will start. However, the tenor of what Krivit said was that there was an angry separation between the U. of B, and Rossi. However, the statement on the Italian website presents a tenor of understanding of Rossi’s position, and an interest in continuing to work with him.

      (I’d have to search, but I am pretty sure there were intermediate investors planning to “fund” the U. of B. research. If this is correct, and the funding didn’t happen, then it was not Rossi who failed to produce the $, but this third party.)

    • Simon Derricutt Says:

      There’s an update on NewEnergyTimes stating that U of B will do a simple test, and that it will be published. This does look like an official statement. Collaboration? I hope not….

  3. Jonathan Says:

    It looks like they pulled out because they didn’t get paid. I don’t think you can really read anything into that.

    What is interesting though is this
    Defkalion are inviting people to come and test their LNER device, with their own instruments, to a published testing protocol, and they are free to publish the results. That certainly looks interesting in terms of answering whether or not this is real or not.

    They claim to have the 650°C temperature needed to run a cyclone power engine, whereas Rossi only claims 150°C, with a possible future increase to 400°C.

    I think this is well worth watching, it is possible that your car will be powered by a Hyperion rather than an E-cat.

  4. Simon Derricutt Says:

    Incidentally I commented on this in NewEnergyTimes. I’ll quote it here:
    “Ethan Siegel’s essay, though very well written, only really states that LENR is impossible using current accepted (hot fusion) theory. He states “In the past, claims of cold fusion have been unable to be scientifically reproduced under controlled conditions” and this is not true – in many experiments excess heat has been verified and nuclear ash has been found, and it now appears that NASA repeated Pons and Fleischmann’s experiment within the year and got results. I therefore think that LENR is valid science, not pathological, and that we should be putting a lot more effort into finding out why this phenomenon occurs and how to make it work reliably and well.

    Rossi’s demonstrations lack rigour and are thus open to suspicions of scamming, even if they are in fact honest. Rossi is not a scientist, but an entrepreneur. Look back at how Marconi stole the work of Lodge and others, and got very rich as well as a Nobel prize for doing it when Radio was starting. Entrepreneurs lie and hype things, and say that something is there when they think it might be there by the time the orders come in. It’s not the way science is supposed to operate, but hey we’re used to being lied to. I’ll eat my beret if Rossi actually gets his million units starting production by August with UL approval, but I still hope to need some good Italian sauce to help it go down.

    Given that Rossi cannot get a US patent, secrecy about how he does things and going directly into low-cost manufacturing would seem to be his optimum route to getting rich – if it really works reliably. He may have the first million returned to him as not matching his advertisement, of course, but at $500 a piece this is really a good bet for most customers. Even if it works for 3 months, they may still come out positive. Once the first is sold, reverse-engineering will be done and copy-cats built – he does need to extend his period without competition as long as possible.”

    The reason for quoting it here is that was moderated away. This happened also the last time I tried to post something there that was not panning Rossi but partially defending his tactics. Maybe NET is a bit blinkered when it comes to Rossi.

    I think I got my facts right – any comments anyone?

    • brucefast Says:

      “He states “In the past, claims of cold fusion have been unable to be scientifically reproduced under controlled conditions” and this is not true”

      Ames lab states, “This 5 watt excess is very much less than Rossi, but it is a real and repeatable experiment”. SPAWAR also claims repeatability, but they were defunded. The scientific community has simply acted shamefully wrt LENR.

      I delisted newenergytimes from my favorites a while back. I believe that Krivit has painfully lost his perspective as illustrated by this post.

  5. Brad Arnold Says:

    Once again, Krivit reports through the prism of an abundance of skepticism toward Rossi. Krivit is undoubtedly correct in his reporting. So what is the significance? If you share Krivit’s prejudice toward Rossi, then this is just one more reason to think Rossi is a fraud. On the other hand, if you are sold on Rossi (like I am – not blind faith, but because of all the evidence), then it is just an irrelevant fact.

    In my opinion, Krivit has gone too far in the past, and lost his journalistic objectivity toward the question of Rossi’s legitimacy, but in this instance he is simply reporting the facts. Too bad he can’t use that excuse when Rossi is proven the Prometheus of our age – Krivit has already picked his side, and he is either right (in which case he is golden), or he is wrong (in which case his name is Mudd).

  6. Greoryyc Says:

    Simple. Rossi doesn’t need TEST !. At $500.000 for that freaking nonsense ??? Hey the money is better used for setting up a factory my friends !!

    • Roger Bird Says:

      Greogyyc, that is a good point staring us right in the face. I could do a lot of serious work with $500,000.

  7. Gregoryyc Says:

    And one more thing. Hyperion might just be tad bit too expensive the way it looks for household unit. May be in $3000 and up for 5KW. Data presented sounds good . But it doesn’t mention how simple to replace the “core” only the hydrogen tank every 5 months. Hydrogen tank = No UL tag. More suited for industrial.

    Ecat is smaller and simpler and cheaper/ No hydrogen tank. A small cartridge swap every 6 month … now. It will change to year or more . You ask how that’s so ? Well my friend think. There will be several versions of Ecat. Some will come with built in redundancy equiped with half dozen cartridges.. If it is made to be replaceable by you and me what would stop it from AUTO SWAP on its own huh ? That will be good for lazy people like you and I. I will predict that Ecat will even have a newer price tag !. Guess…. higher ?? NO … take a guess..and lower no. … lower..

    • Roger Bird Says:

      Gregoryyc, but if either Rossi or Defkalion comes to market for real, then we will be absolutely certain that we have entered the new world order.

    • brucefast Says:

      There will be buckets of room for both the Hyperion and the e-cat. Home heating is just the beginning, the engineering of these things has just begun.

      The guy who will really win is the guy who gives the innovative folks access to the core technology. We don’t want finished machines, we just want cores!

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Cores! Cores! Brucefast, do you live in the Rocky Mountain area?

      • brucefast Says:

        Nope, I live in the Canadian sub-arctic. (About 1000 miles due east of Alaska). What’s that got to do with cores?

      • Roger Bird Says:

        I guess that you are too far away to know of the famous beer Coors, pronounced Cores. But I hate alcoholic beverages in every possible way other than being tolerant of those who enjoy a beer every now and then.

      • Gregoryyc Says:

        What stops you from buying just the core ???? right ? So now you go do your own THANG …..Build whatever you want…. HUH ? wow !!

    • Alain Says:

      I don’t agree, 5500Eur (7000$) for the hyperion multicore is a big investment for a family, but my gaz and electricity bill is more than 2000Eur (100m2 house, heater+boiler)… reducing it to 500eur per year, make it profitable in less than 5 years… it could be a good reason to make a loan, much better that the green loan.

      • Gregoryyc Says:

        Look. If 5500Euro is no big deal to you, then $3000us should be a breeze.
        But for the most of us that is way too much for 5kw machine with dubious core & hydrogen tank replacement process/cost .

        Ecat is guaranteed for $400-500 for now and I presume to expect lower towards shipping date ( Rossi’s way to beat out future competion = lower cost at start up ( so I might think of $350 range hopefully) ( at this price just about anybody in entire world will buy 2 or more units. ) . I will get 10 units maybe spread between 2 houses with pool and car engine retrofits and other things.. His cartridge cost is expected to be $10/unit.

        So , which ever you pick ,,hey knock yourself out huh :) !!

      • Alain Says:

        cheaper is better I agree, but note that Hyperion multicore is 10-25kW, exactly what is need for all a house.
        it’s design is different, more modular, extensible.

        the market seems to start segmenting.
        mini E-cat is the low-cost version (provided the spec a ok).
        I would buy it for a flat, for heating and boiling. (provided it is not vaporware).

        hyperion maintenance is more complex, but similar to a gaz central heating/boiler annual manitenance (it is mandatory for my gaz heater).
        this maintenance and refilling seems to be quite easy for a plumber… and anyway if you have “estension module” you will need some regular maitnenance (oil change if temp>200C, checking)

        multicore hyperion is better for a house, with a programmed evolution.
        first heating+boiling, then add coolling, then add CHP…

        and expect defkalion to work on a similar to e-kitten hyperion.
        they simply don’t communicate until it works for sure.
        they also care much about product certification and safety rules.

        room for everybody. it is like car industry in the 50s in europe…

  8. JerryT Says:

    Glad to see a good sense of humor here and I too enjoy a good cold Coors once in awhile. I think in a very short time Krivit will be laughing out of the other side of his mouth and proven wrong in his hateful attacks on Rossi. Yes, these LENR devices are going to be a revolutionary change for most societies and governments on this earth. They (big energy and certain gov’t’s) may slow it down a tad, but this new technology is now unstoppable. They either need to get used to it or get out of the way and adapt…

  9. Greg Goble Says:

    The gentleman contract between Rossi and Focardi seems to still be in working order including an extended relationship into the ‘family’ of the Department of Physics of the University of Bologne which, “has made available its expertise and equipments to carry out autonomous measurements of the heat generated by the equipment called e-cat to provide a scientific answer to the phenomenon for the benefit of the whole scientific community and the public opinion. The results will be published.” Why aren’t these people screaming fraud at the top of their lungs?

    I think the timing will be that shortly after National Instruments (not screaming fraud either) finishes running (at ram speed) the ready-to-market home ecat through the U.S. certification process we will see the scientific publications from University of Bologne; perhaps shortly after that a sizable donation from Rossi. Bologne doesn’t seem to need ‘money-up-front’ from Rossi. The contract has expired but not the relationship.

    Research the credentials of the esteemed gentleman behind in the U.S. Why aren’t they screaming fraud? I don’t know but I think we will soon find out.

    Warm regards and electrifying anticipation.
    Will Obama make a statement about ecat soon? I think so, two Republican politicians have and a couple of us have been informing the Democratic election committees of this, NFE (nearly free energy) may be an important board in anyones political platform; especially once the “cat” is out of the bag and in the marketplace. Oil lobby dollars won’t get you elected in the face of NFE.

    • Bob Says:

      Greg, do you think Obama was referring to LENR and Rossi MW systems when he mentioned the Navy supplying energy to homes. If I was guessing it could be, but then maybe I’m just hearing things I want to hear.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Obama just recently supported natural gas in a speech. That is really quite cool of him, even though I generally hate his policies (but love him). So it would not be a huge surprise for me if he was supporting LENR behind the scenes. You realize that if he came out in support of it in front of the public his re-election prospects would be dead in the water. The majority of the science community would rip him a new one.

      • Bob Says:

        Roger, you have a point. In the State of the Union speech, Obama mentioned the Navy would be generating power for a city. Not sure it was Rossi, but you sure have to wonder if it was an admission of CF dealings.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        It is just really hard for me to imagine how the Navy would be involved in generating power for a city other than by using LENR. Consider the size of the biggest ship in the US Navy; consider the size of a city. The only way that the Navy could power a city would be either for the ship to be crammed full of LENR or for the Navy to be working on a new kind of energy source. I can’t imagine which energy source he would be talking about. (sarcasm) To me, this is Obama’s way of acknowledging LENR without screwing up his re-election prospects. 99% if not 100% of his opponents will have no idea what he is talking about, and they think that most of what comes out of his mouth doesn’t make any sense anyway. (I know, I am one of those opponents.) (:->) So he gets away with making a prophetic and encouraging remark without getting his 11 week notice in November. There is no other explanation for his remark that makes any sense. I know that the remark is sort of nebulous, but use your intelligently vectored imaginations, guys. What other explanation could there be? Since when was the freaking Navy in the energy generation business?

      • Ryan K Says:

        If Obama is aware of LENR and potentially hinted at it in the SOTU then it may be something that he is leading up to for later this year. If they are quietly building up resources to produce that kind of power and then brought it out in a dramatic way later in the year, going ‘here, see, we have the solution to our energy problems and can provide it cheaply and easily’, then it would be a coup that would almost certainly guarantee Obama’s reelection and more than likely usher in an overwhelming number of Democrats across the board. Granted, this is only speculation and I have yet to see Obama distance himself greatly from corpratist policies but perhaps he can redeem himself if such a scenario were to be true.

      • Anony Mole Says:

        +Ryan K, that’s an intriguing scenario. The timing certainly fits. One would think that such an announcement would resonate with the populace, but as discussed here and else where, the disruption to the aristocracy will be sever and such disruption is frowned upon. With superPACs able to spin any message on any candidate I would not put it past the ruling class to bend the LENR story into one of chaos and anarchy. On the other hand, #OWS has shown that the groundswell of support against the 1%’ers, if turned to support LENR, could easily engulf any negative campaign against LENR. These next six months are going to prove momentous in the story of human history – me thinks.

      • Bob Norman Says:

        I personally don’t believe a word Obama says and have mixed feeling about what he would do. He claims to be opening public land for oil and gas exploration, but the facts are otherwise. He has all but shut down off shore oil exploration through regulation and know he is working to shut down North Dakota, Ohio and Texas new oil finds. Coal mines are being shut down. Coal power plants are being forced to close because of regulation. He halts the Canadian Pipe line and this is his new energy initiative. Personally I believe he is out to destroy the country, so he sees the disruption that LENR may unleash, so he very well could be in favor of it. Nothing the man does makes sense unless the motive is destruction.

      • brucefast Says:

        I bet that this is what Obama was talking about:
        Update: Small Nuclear Power Plants

        We are talking about micro-scale nuclear fission devices.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Those small nuclear fission plants are sort of a competition for LENR. LENR is obviously better, no pollution, no gamma rays, smaller, cheaper. But SNFP are also much better than regular ol’ nuclear fission plants. But I supposed dumping a hot bathtub sized nuke in the Mariana Trench would be frowned upon.

  10. Roger Bird Says:

    Many people are claiming that Rossi can’t do self-sustain mode; this is supposed to be part of the evidence that he is a con. But I would remind you-all that if it wasn’t for Andrea Rossi, we wouldn’t have the phrase “self-sustain mode”. He could have just as easily done 250 watts in and 10 kWs out and never mention anything about “self-sustain mode”. I never heard the phrase “self-sustain mode” until I started investigating the E-Cat. Why would a con make himself vulnerable to looking bad (by not being able to sustain “self-sustain mode”)?

  11. Roger Bird Says:

    In the October 6th test video, the lady who opened the door of the 1 Mw heater was not very pretty.

    “For God’s sake, Roger, what the hell does that have to do with anything? You are such a moron!”

    If Rossi was a con, she would have been very pretty.

  12. Roger Bird Says:

    During the September 7 demo with Matt Lewans (, the video showed the steam blasting out of the E-Cat for 1 minute and 23 seconds. My time count had to end because the video ended, but the blasting steam did not seem to be slowing down. There was no apparent lessening of the blast. It seems very unlikely that a box that small could hold that much steam and for that steam to blast out so steadily, unless there was some kind of internal power. And Matt says that the input power had been turned off for several hours. If Rossi is faking it, then he could market one heck of an insulator, that holds that heat in for so long. Also, his tank would have to be awfully strong. Just like the non-existent dead grad students in 1989, I don’t see shards of metal sticking in the walls of the lab. I don’t see wounds on Rossi’s face from an exploding tank. He either has a very strong tank with an excellent insulator, or else he has real LENR happening in his E-Cat.

    I don’t understand why debunkers (other than their little problem with their mental health) can call Rossi a crook. I have had a lot of experience with debunkers (pretty much all of it negative), and I have noticed that they attack ANYTHING that seems to be hopeful. It is like they have an allergic reaction to hope and wonder and promise for the future.

  13. Simon Derricutt Says:

    Roger – as I see it, self-sustain mode is in engineering terms a Bad Thing. This means that Rossi is controlling the coolant flow well enough to keep the core at a set temperature. If the control fails (glitch in the power supply, software…), or the coolant flow fails, the core melts. It’s a difficult balancing act, and I’d prefer it done away with so that power always needs to be fed in to keep it running. If you are generating electricity anyway, a small amount needing to be fed in to keep it alive is a price worth paying for peace of mind. Electronics have a certain failure rate – this can be reduced but not eliminated by good design and careful manufacture. Relying on them is not fail-safe unless you put an inordinate amount of work (money) into backup systems and redundancy.

    Hopefully the engineers at NI will fix that little problem. You may see self-sustain mode disappear in the production version.

    Debunkers don’t understand what they don’t know. I just found a website ( that points out the errors in some of our basic theories. Since it covers things I have been thinking about for a while, I recommend it. I think the guy that wrote it is probably dead now, so download the whole site if you can before it goes away.

    • brucefast Says:

      I’m not sure of your theory that self-sustain mode is bad. If there is a “frequency” that is part of the reaction process, then control is not abandoned. Albeit if there is a frequency, the frequency generator requires energy, as such “self-sustain mode” is a bit of an exaggeration.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Bruce, if there is a frequency generator, then self-sustain mode just ain’t so. And we may be wandering into semantics. What really counts is whether there is control, sustainability, and no runaways or shutdowns.

        We should not underestimate the importance of vibrations in this and any other technology, and I don’t mean the vibrations that are often called “vibes”.

  14. Bob Norman Says:

    I suspect that no one knows the truth at this point. There are newly demonstrated excess heat but the mechanism of how and why is up for grabs. The exciting part of the whole phenomena is that it has opened up a whole new branch of study. Its my belief that understanding the bonding better, the resonant affects and electromagnetic affects will open many more practical doors than does the super colliders a huge prices. This appears to be a very fundamental atomic reaction that once understood may open even more exciting doors the low cost energy.
    What if scientists learn how to transmute metals to not only make rare metals, but create new materials by proton injection. What impact will this have on biology and cell and chromosome manipulation. Designer drugs made by this process.
    This could unlock many aspects of science undreamed of.

    • brucefast Says:

      I wholeheartedly agree.

      I also think that our understanding of how the mix of elements arrived on earth will be totally edited. My understanding (which admittedly is weak) of the current theory is that the subatomic particles that are us have gone through 4 cycles of star birth, life and death. As our star has been around for at least 4 billion years and is seen to be at mid-life, and the universe has only been around for about 16 billion, this theory challenges credulity for me.

      • Bob Says:

        Didn’t realize that you liked to study the stars. I read quite a bit on it as it just amazing to me.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bruce – ours is a little star as stars go, so will last a relatively long time. The more massive the star, the shorter its projected life before blowing up. There have been a lot of big stars having blown up to satisfy the maths.

        Having said that, there remain very large gaps in our knowledge of cosmology, and most of it is inference based on what we can see at this moment in time, inferring distance (and thus how long ago) from red-shifts. There’s a basic assumption that the speed of light and all the physics laws we know have been the same since just after the Big Bang, and maybe this is not a valid assumption. Maybe not a subject to get into here….

      • Roger Bird Says:

        As much as I enjoy astronomy and think of it as a wonderful exercise in the scientific method, there are lots of assumptions in astronomy that just “ain’t necessarily so”, as the song goes. And now that we have Dark Energy and Dark Matter and neutrinos going faster than the speed of light (perhaps), it puts a lot of things in doubt. The whole red shift thingie is hugely in doubt with me. Perhaps light traveling through Dark Matter gets tired. Stranger things have happened.

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Neutrinos faster than light… when this came out I sent them an email (no reply) saying that since the neutrinos travel through the mountains, they see a lower gravity field than at the surface of the Earth. They will of course travel faster than light would at standard gravity, but it could well be the same speed as it would have been if the light had travelled the same path. Time is affected by gravity. Sometime I’ll go through the integration of the gravity experienced by the neutrinos, but it’s quite a calculation.

        For now, I’m still of the opinion that we can’t measure things going faster than light.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Simon, that was quite clever, quite impressive. I never thought of that. Do you wonder if the guys doing the experiment thought of that.

        But I wonder where all of those neutrinos go, anyway, to change the subject slightly. We hear that 90% of all energy from novas are neutrinos. That is a lot of neutrinos. It offends my sense of cycles and completeness that the neutrinos just explode from stars and nova especially and we never hear from them again. The accumulated neutrinos in the space must be a lot of mass. Perhaps it shows up as Dark Energy or Dark Matter or Dark Occams. (:->)

      • Jonathan Says:

        The idea that neutrinos might travel faster than light first came from monitoring supernova explosions, where the neutrinos arrived faster than expected. Going through outer space, they would experience much the same gravitational field as the electromagnetic waves that arrived a few hours later.

        My view is that we have missed something. Whether that is an extension to the current theory, a change in it which is a rounding difference in normal circumstances just like it is with Newton’s theory, or just that we forgot something when setting up the experiment and doing the measurements, I don’t know.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Whatever happen to the theory that the nuclear engine in the center of the Sun had turned off because we couldn’t count enough neutrinos?

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Thanks Jonathan – I’d totally forgotten about that.

        You are right – there’s a lot of stuff we missed, but providing we don’t think we know all the answers then we may remain open to seeing something that goes against current theory.

        I had thought that matter causes time dilation, proportional in some way to the QM probability density. The time dilation causes gravity, since a portion of the probability function of a particle is at slower time and thus lower energy, so there will be a tendency to attract – hence gravity. Maybe the neutrinos have so little interaction with matter that they don’t see the time dilation and thus travel at intergalactic (zero gravitational field) light velocity. Sorry about the diversion from LENR, but it’s a nice thought….

        Neutrinos are so hard to measure that no-one (as far as I know) has worked out where all that energy disappears to. In my college days it wasn’t a question that had been thought of, even.

      • brucefast Says:

        Simon Derricutt,”Sorry about the diversion from LENR, but … ” ‘Not as off topic as all that. We’re squarely in the topic of science’s limited knowledge, and the wide-eyed wonder that we need as we look at new data. LENR fits squarely in this field of discussion.

  15. Bob Norman Says:

    With the galaxies moving apart at faster and faster rates, they predict that in a few million years the stars will all but disappear outside our Galaxy. Can’t imagine a night sky without all the stars.

    It appears that much of the heavens is racing towards some unknown attraction, sure would like to know whats out there.

    The ionic cloud approaching our solar system, sure would like to know what affect it will have. The doom and gloom guys are all worried about a sun freak out (scientific term).

    Aether (sp) subject is back, I have trouble getting my mind around it.

    Some scientists claim that there is some evidence that the laws of physics is different in other areas of the universe. Hard to imagine.

    This is an endless list and each one very interesting. Cosmology is undergoing a revolution. They find more in a week than they used to in years. Exciting times to be studying the stars.

  16. Simon Derricutt Says:

    WordPress is not letting me post here for some reason. A bug in their software or in the new version of FireFox? Try again….

    Bob – it’s only going to be the nebulae (distant galaxies) that disappear if they are right, and most can’t be seen by naked eye anyway. If you are still looking in a few million years, some of the constellations may have changed shape but nearly all of the 2000 naked-eye objects will still be visible.

    Replace the Aether with a QM probability function and it makes more sense, but those guys like the old dependable no-dice Universe, so really haven’t been happy since 1905.

    There’s no reason why the laws of physics (as we currently understand them) have to be the same everywhere and at all times, though I would argue that they have to be the same everywhere right now since the whole universe is at every point in space (to some calculable probability) at any point in time (QM again). Varying over time is OK, and when we look at the stars we are looking back in time, so maybe here there is an error in stating the case carefully enough.

    Anyway, our knowledge is incomplete and probably always will be. We’ll get better understanding and theories in time, so the current Doomsday theories could be right but, on balance, they probably aren’t if you look at our history of predicting disasters.

    Maybe someday we’ll even understand Quantum Mechanics.

  17. Bob Norman Says:

    The article I read on the stars said the sky would be black except whats in the Milky way. I’ll try and find it again and reread.

    I guess, if we new it all we would be Gods.

    Mans recorded history is quite short, sure would like to see what life and society would be like in a few thousand years. Breakthroughs seem to be accelerating, even a hundred years will be huge. As science marches forward, its man’s ability to manage themselves is where the problem lies.

    • brucefast Says:

      I’m hardly a star guru, but aren’t the vast majority of the stars we see in the milky way? All of the other lights we see in the sky would be whole galaxies. Can we see galaxies with our naked eye?

      • Simon Derricutt Says:

        Bruce – only a few, of which I remember the Crab and Andromeda, both little fuzzy dots. Most of the naked-eye visible objects are in our galaxy. Most people don’t see many stars anyway – too much light pollution in the cities.

        Even the recorded history is not really certain more than a couple of centuries ago. History is written by the winners…. Scientific and technological progress seems to be also following Moore’s Law, though social progress is nowhere near that. When I started in computing, I was using punch-cards, and the Moon trip computing power was a lot less than in your phone (about Apple II standard). I expect massive changes in 10 years, and unbelievable change in a century.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        The Crab Nebula is in our galaxy and was the result of a supernova in 1054 AD or some date very close to that. The Chinese saw it.

        I am showing off. (:->)

        The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds could be said to be outside of our galaxy, or they could be said to be part of our galaxy. They are in the southern skies and can be seen clearly in the southern hemisphere.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        We can see only one galaxy with our naked eye, that would be the Andromeda Galaxy. If there is one or some others, I am not aware of them, but I guarantee that they would be extremely dim and very, very few.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        I agree with Bruce. Most star visible with the naked eye are in the Milky Way because that milky brightness is billions of stars.

        “Can you see the Milky Way at night with the naked eye?
        In fact, the Milky Way is one of the most interesting naked eye sights in the night sky. However, it’s not bright, and it’s not always well placed to be seen.”

        I live in a rural area and I’ve observed the Milky Way many

  18. Simon Derricutt Says:

    Oops, I put the Crab Nebula in – not a galaxy but a supernova seen to explode in about 1107 in China. Sorry.

  19. Bob Norman Says:

    Well it looks like my statement about the Milky Way was flat wrong. Now I need to track that article down and see what it said. They talked about the stars starting to disappear nightly until the sky was black. Looks like I get a 0 on this grade, if I had my comments peer reviewed this would not have happened. LOL

    They said on the business news today that the Apple iPhone has the same compute power as the IBM 360 which I learned on in college. Don’t know how accurate that is, but is sounds about right.

  20. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    A short rebuttal to the proponents and protagonists of Widom Larson Theory

    Guest posting by Goat Guy. (NextBigFuture)

    • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

      all over my head

    • Roger Bird Says:

      It was so far over my head that I couldn’t even see the contrails.

    • Simon Derricutt Says:

      Thanks Iggy – I enjoy GoatGuy’s writing and he’s a sound physicist. This one will take a while to digest, so read and bookmarked for now. I rather like the W-L theory, since it is simple, so I may need to do a bit of work to refute the refutation point by point. It would have been better, maybe, if he had refuted a different theory (there are over 50 of them), but maybe he thought too that W-L was the best.

      If all the skeptics were like GoatGuy, who states his points with great clarity and precision, then the whole field would develop so much faster.

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