Post Oct 28 commentary

By Bob Norman

First, it was great to see the results if not exactly what we expected.
The testing threw us a few curves. I thought the test was to contain 52 of the larger Ecats, but the test was run with 116 ECats, a couple rows of them were lined up on top of the container. Of these units they all had 3 cores, but to do self sustain mode that the customer was interested in only 1 cor per machine was used. To me this says that Rossi still does not have an adequate control mechanism and the technology is not ready for prime time. Impressive, but major engineering is needed.
It was reported on another thread that the customer was linked to a Colonel and rumors that DARPA was the customer. This is not good news and may lead to no news from the customer. Sustaining the momentum could be an issue going forward. I thought I would start hear or reading about the big breakthrough, but basically nothing. I’m hoping its just a lag caused by the weekend, but gut says that’s not it.

Where do we go from here. Rossi said he heads back to the states to gear up production. There is no indication he has customers lined up for the 1MW system and more work is required before the commercial uses are ready.
Rossi can’t keep doing Demos, nor does he want to, I think.

I see no true excitement and don’t see what will happen next. I’m excited about the technology and the test, but a little down for the reaction, or lack of it from the media or word of mouth. I hope its just a time lag issue. Comments?

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35 Responses to “Post Oct 28 commentary”

  1. brucefast Says:

    Somehow we need to convince Dr. Rossi, that the real product is the e-cat core, not heaters. There are a gazillion individuals and organizations who would love to get their hands on an e-cat core to see what they can get out of it, and to see what they can make that runs on it. Once the R&D folk get their fingers on this technology, products will be popping out like candy.

  2. Anthony Scalzi Says:

    Apparently Rossi is already receiving multiple orders for the 1 MW units.

    http://www.e-catworld.com/2011/10/rossi-second-1-mw-e-cat-plant-sold-projects-exponential-growth-of-sales/

    • Bob Norman Says:

      Anthony, this is good news. Nothing works better than having units in customer hands that people see and can get reports on. I just hope they are not as secretive.

  3. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    #
    Iggy Dalrymple
    October 31st, 2011 at 9:16 PM

    Dear Andrea Rossi,

    When do you intend to start production in the USA?

    Andrea Rossi
    November 1st, 2011 at 3:35 AM

    Dear Iggy Dalrymple:
    Already did. The charges are already made in the USA. Of course the work is in progress.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

  4. Twodogs Says:

    If you seriously wanted to release this technology for mankind, you would publish the specs widespread on the blogosphere for free and recoup your money by writing a book. There would be no putting the genie back in the bottle.

    • Bob Norman Says:

      I disagree totally! To give up a great idea goes against the nature of mankind and the desire to build an enterprise. What if Bill Gates gave his software for free and wrote a book. I think Bill made more by pursuing the corporate path. He just needs to take precautions that in the event of some event, his knowledge would not die. Rossi should expect Billions from his invention, not a few Million.

  5. Roger Bird Says:

    There is a model for what the federal government is going to do when (and if) it becomes obvious that the E-Cat works. The model is raw milk. First they will try to flood the news media with reports about how dangerous the E-Cat is, even though it isn’t. Then they will assign some appropriate agency to pounce of suppliers of E-Cats and arrest them, even though there is no radiation. They may even make raids on people’s homes who have E-Cats. They will send “consultants” to the utility districts to tell them to not buy energy from people who may have E-Cats. They may even pass a law saying that a utility can’t buy energy from people who are using E-Cats to generate that energy. They will try to mold public opinion into believing that people who own E-Cats are threatening the public welfare.

    One way to keep this from happening is for Rossi, or someone else, after they have become filthy rich, to make sure that academia and science is 100% behind the E-Cat.

  6. Roger Bird Says:

    IF the E-Cat or other cold fusion device proves to work, I think that we should compile a list of those who were stridently skeptical and then publish that list on the Internet with frequent references to it. (:->) I am really tired of those “scientists” who can’t be neutral, who find it necessary to say no to everything.

    Roger

    • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

      I say read ‘em, digest their thought, and forget’em.

      Question why a skeptic would be intrigued by this site. I’m not a flat earther and I don’t spend time on flat earth sites.

      I’m not an atheist and I don’t visit atheist sites.

      Why would a cold-fusion skeptic hang around a cold-fusion site?
      Maybe that’s their job.

      • brucefast Says:

        Or maybe they hope its all true, but must declare that it is a scam to protect their fragile ego, or to protect against having their hopes dashed.

  7. Roger Bird Says:

    I am willing to sound like an idiot just to get an answer to this: someone posted a diagram or a link to a diagram that showed how 2 protons fuse in the middle of the Sun, with the uncertainty inherent in nature of their respective positions playing a big role. I presume that the 2 protons would be close to each other for a VERY short period of time. What would happen if the 2 protons were close to each other billions of times longer? Wouldn’t that increase the probability that the 2 protons would fuse even though they were not nearly as close? And how would this play with a nickel nucleus and a proton?

    • brucefast Says:

      Roger, I highly recommend that people like you and I, people who have to do a google search to figure out how to spell coulombe (is that how you spell it?) should leave the figuring out what’s going on inside there to others. I believe that we do, however, have the right to support those who claim that something is going on in there, and to ream out the idiot scientists that put theory before evidence and declare with certainty that the thing is a scam.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Yes, brucefast, I wanted to mention that the much admired theories are the result of phenomena, and it should not be the other way around. If we have new phenomena, which I hope that we do, then we need to change the theory.

        See, here is the thing… People who cling to theory like an old, hysterical widow might cling to her husband’s casket are usually socially retarded. So they don’t look at the people involved; they look only at the theory. They did not notice the years of successful, albeit intermittent, success with palladium cold fusion. They did not see the imminent scientists who said that they thought that it was real. They did not look at Rossi who worked without any attention for a long time, not something a con might do. They did not notice that Rossi let 53 of his units drive away (whether they work or not). How is he going to afford a new bunch of E-Cats. The money has to come from some place. There are so many social issues that the skeptics don’t seem to see. This does not prove that the E-Cat works. But it does mean that we should be way more open minded than the skeptics are.

    • Anthony Scalzi Says:

      This should help a bit.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proton-proton_chain

      When 2 protons fuse, one of them has to change to a neutron by spitting out a positron(antielectron). Other wise, the protons quickly fly apart again. The extra conversion process from proton to neutron is why proton-proton fusion is so difficult-most of the collisions don’t result in successful fusion.

      The longer the protons are together, the more likely one of them is to convert to a neutron and fuse together.

      With a proton and a nickel nucleus, once they are in contact, they fuse without any conversion required.

      • brucefast Says:

        This sounds scarily like a Star Trek antimatter drive. I think I’m going to be hearing William Shatner claim credit for this too as he did for everything else in the world

      • Roger Bird Says:

        But Anthony, does this mean also that the longer a proton and the nickel nucleus are close, the more likely they are to fuse? I know it sounds obvious, actually. But I just wanted to point out to skeptics that the proton and nickel nucleus will be close billions upon billions of times longer than two protons in the center of the Sun. And that fact needs to be accounted for in their skeptical minds.

  8. Craig Binns Says:

    Roger

    You observe: “How is he going to afford a new bunch of E-Cats. The money has to come from some place.”

    That’s the scam part of the operation, in case you’re interested.

    May I also express my total agreement with Brucefast that you should both leave it to others to figure out what’s going on inside?These others are of course the yellow bellied conformist scientists, and they don’t figure fusion’s going on inside.

    • Roger Bird Says:

      How can someone afford to time and the expense to make 53 E-Cats and then let someone drive them away and have to make more E-Cats? That is a lot of E-Cats. I doubt that a scam artist would want to go to that bother.

      By the way, has anyone checked to see if Rossi did sell his house? In the USA, that is not a difficult fact to check. I don’t know about Italy.

  9. Roger Bird Says:

    Another thing, now we have Defkalion (I got the spelling right!!!) saying that they are going to present today. So, is this two entities running the same scam, sort of competing scams. That would be a first as far as I know. And to what end? If Defkalion doesn’t do it very convincingly, then people are going to be walking away disappointed and feeling cheated. So, I am more inclined to believe, because no con could be so stupid as to mess with some other con’s scam.

  10. Craig Binns Says:

    Surely you don’t really believe Rossi made dozens and dozens of e-cats or used one of them to heat a factory, or has sold his house. Did you believe Defkalion was going to mass produce these contraptions for Rossi? I promise you they’ll make not a single one, for Rossi or anyone else.

    Where is Rossi making them now anyway, since the split with Defkalion, to assemble into his megawatt device? It is all nonsense.

    You will get nothing, except promise after promise, excuse after excuse, lie after lie and delay after delay, until finally you give up, and then Rossi will quietly abandon cold fusion and start up some other swindle. Petroldragon … Gold smuggling … Energy catalysis … Who knows what he’ll think up next?

    • Roger Bird Says:

      I am pretty sure that you, Craig Binns, are basing all of this paranoia on your certainty that the equations are right and your failure to understand human beings. We will see. The theories should be the slave to the phenomena. We should not be slaves to the theories. Otherwise there is no progress, ever.

      • Craig Binns Says:

        I try to understand swindlers and scammers. Some things accepted by science at present are perhaps wrong, but these will be corrected within science by scientific procedures, as in the past.

        Rossi is a snake oil merchant, exploiting people who want to believe and are willing to suspend their judgement.

        Anyway it is not for me to prove or disprove Rossi’s statements. It is for him to provide adequate evidence that his machines can do what he promises. This he is refusing to do, so he is not to be believed. I don’t care about his excuses or promises of goodies in the unspecified future.

        By the way, any significant announcement from our old chums at Defkalion yet, as promised for today?

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Craig, you get a star for not being abusive.

        The light bulb was not “corrected within science by scientific procedures, as in the past.” Neither was the airplane “corrected within science by scientific procedures, as in the past.” The telephone also was not “corrected within science by scientific procedures, as in the past.” I could go on and on about that one.

        And the part about cold fusion, which is really your scientific gripe, has been “corrected within science by scientific procedures, as in the past.” I know that SRI lives and dies on its reputation, and it is reputable.

        So, we are left with Rossi. He did have a shadow in the past, but what of his behavior now that leads you to believe that he is a con? Not letting scientists check his work does not count since there has already been a report that the University of Siena stole his secret with a spectroscope surreptitiously while Rossi was standing right there. Is it the really affectionate relationship with Focardi that is the con giveaway? Or is it 3 years with absolutely no monetary gain that was the giveaway. Oh, and of course, it can’t be his claiming that cold fusion works that is the tell because SRI and many other labs have proven cold fusion. The problem is not cold fusion, which has produced way more excess energy than hot fusion. The problem is continuing and controlling the reaction.

        Funny thing is, cold fusion has been struggling with continuing and controlling the reaction for some years now, but hot fusion hasn’t even broken even yet. When hot fusion breaks even, then it will have to deal with the continuing and controlling issue. I am really wondering how some of these hot fusion schemes are going to be made controllable and continuous.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Gamma isolation 3mm

        Kernel body (smallest of 2 devices) – 12x12x12cm

        Atomic Hydrogen generator

        Resistive preheating – 6 seconds

        Chemically assisted preheating – media undisclosed

        Embedded within reactor structure

        Particle size – 3-7 microns

        Powder prep method – proprietary

        Catalysts involved in reaction – proprietary

        Normal H pressure <50 bar

        Safety valve 150 bar?

        Ecomass 3mm Polyether Block Amide (unlike Pb, non toxic) – 3mm!!! Typo to go with Pleasure Sensor?

        Synthetic thermal oil – (alkyl aromatic)

        Performance data and alarms to DGT by GSM (phone)

        GPS!!?

        Self destruct – chemical and non-hazardous

        Inner compartment with reactor and coolant interface – argon environment

        Two main sizes:

        5-11kW and 10-45kW

        Operating temp depends on system (four variants) 185, 285, 414 deg C

        Ext 55x45x42cm

        19kg and 47kg

        Larger unit may go up to 34 months without powder change (but still need Hydrogen?)

        Max elec input <200w and <310W

        COP 1:25 min and 1:32 min

        Certification Pending

        Serviced in-situ

        Any attempt to violate such handling procedures may cause product’s self-destruct with no hazardous or dangerous effects to the environment. http://ecatnews.com/

      • brucefast Says:

        Actually, from everything I have read that Craig Binns has posted, which is a lot, I have concluded that he has used no high science in his determination. Craig’s model seems to be secret = lie.
        Rossi has kept secrets.
        Rossi has behaved “irrationally” (not the way Craig perceives that he would have behaved).
        Rossi clearly has exaggerated/lied. (Do you really believe that there has been a 1mw plant heating some Italian warehouse for over a year?)

        It is Craig’s behavioral analysis that draws him to his conclusion — almost exclusively so. When this is over, he will have to do to his behavioral analysis algorithm what science must do to its understanding of the atom — revamp it to fit the new data.

  11. Craig Binns Says:

    Roger

    To make my point about refusal to provide evidence and delay, this is from Rossi’s blog last week “(R)emember that such R&D will be closed doors made and not public. I repeat: no more public tests will be made. … Conclusion: from now on we will be more sealed than ever, and we will be open exclusively with our Customers.
    To put for sale the small unts we need: 1- safety certification 2- granted patents. We are working on both the issues and I think they will be addressed within 1 to 2 years from now.”

    Rossi won’t reveal his magic catalyst i.e. he hasn’t provided sufficient information to replicate the device, so he CAN’T be granted an international patent and he knows it.

    Safety certification! Some hope! For an under-the-back-stairs nuke water heater and steam-puffer that can’t be explained by theoretical physics?!? I’ve already raised this issue with brucefast in this blog.

    “I THINK … 1 to 2 years.” Typical scam timetable. So no household ecats in the foreseeable future. Only megawatt ones “sold” to mystery clients, with vague hints that they are the military.

    • Roger Bird Says:

      But Craig, how is he going to garner any money, which is the purpose of both cons and businesses, if he does not “sell” to real people? If he sells to businesses, then he is even more vulnerable to legal action and/or assassination than if he were to sell to you and me. It seems like a pretty stupid con to me. There must thousands of people like you and me with slightly less critical thinking skills or slightly more money and more desire for adventure and/or discovery that would love to plunk down $5,400 for an E-Cat. His best bet for getting rich if it was a con would be to sell units to individuals. I am sure that he could easily sell to hundreds of people before he got found out. 300 people and he would have $1,620,000. I would be on my way to backwoods of the Philippines with my Filipino wife with that kind of money.

  12. Craig Binns Says:

    Aeroplanes, lightbulbs and telephones WORK. They can be seen to work. The latter two were at once patented and marketed. They weren’t sold in secret to unnamed clients. They were put in the stores and sold in large quantity right away. Aeroplanes were invented in 1903, went public internationally in 1908, and by 1911 were being used by the Italians in their war to grab Libya from Turkey. Interesting, no? Exactly 100 years later …

    Compare that with the non-achieving history of cold fusion, and Rossi’s secrecy, obfuscation, and “shadow in the past”, or criminal record as most people would call it.

    • Roger Bird Says:

      But Craig, I didn’t say that airplanes, lightbulbs, and telephones didn’t work. I merely pointed out that we did not need some scientist to confirm that they worked. And I would hardly call Edison a scientist. And the Wright Brothers were bicycle mechanics (and very impressive inventors.)

      Rossi has good reasons which have already been discussed why he isn’t showing us what is in his hand. And why should he? What good will it do HIM if some dudes named Roger and Craig are convinced that the E-Cat works? He wants to sell the product. He is (apparently) selling the product. Money will put him in the position to promote his product. The more product he sells, the more it will spread. He is merely not concerned about what academia and the scientific community thinks.

      I think, Craig, that you suffer from an allergy to uncertainty. Brucefast and I and others do not. We are not sure about Rossi. We are comfortable being unsure. If Rossi were to come to our door and ask us if we would like to buy an E-Cat, then certainty would become a much more important issue.

      I believe that I can speak for brucefast and perhaps others and say that we are certain about cold fusion. Whether it can be controlled yet and be continuous and whether Rossi is doing it is still uncertain. I will gladly be corrected about others, but that is where I am at now.

      • Craig Binns Says:

        You don’t need scientists to confirm that lightbulbs work, because even my old grandmother could see that they did. Rossi has produced a device which can puff out steam while connected to the power supply – as my grandmother’s electric kettle could do. But Rossi is claiming that it’s more than an electric kettle. This we can’t see, so that’s where the scientists come in.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Craig, I could determine if the E-Cat was for real. It doesn’t really take a scientists to determine that.

        But you have an assignment to do. Get to it:

        http://ecatnews.com/?p=1430

        http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/BarnhartBtechnology.pdf

      • brucefast Says:

        “You don’t need scientists to confirm that lightbulbs work, because even my old grandmother could see that they did.”

        And how many years after Edison invented the lightbulb did your grandmother get to see one? How many skeptics were there that the lightbulb worked before they became ubiquitous?

        All that for an invention that didn’t defy known science. The inventions that did defy known science (of which there are many such as the airplane) were even better at gathering skeptics.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Actually, according to the Spencer Tracy movie of the 1930′s, there were a bunch of people saying that the electric light was scientifically impossible. Somehow, Edison accidentally let out that he had it, not he was working on it. When he didn’t show it, there was a huge boil over with skeptics having a big party and inviting the whole world.

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