1 M-Watt Running Commentary

By Bob Norman

My predictions
Will it be conclusive? No, the skeptics will be their in force
Will the customer be identified? No
Will Rossi’s partner be named? Maybe (How’s that for a prediction)
Will defkalion announce to steal Rossi’s thunder? No
Will Roll out plans be given?

I believe the test will be a success, but skeptics will once again find fault, even though the test is being done by the customer. I think it will be enough of a success to move the ball forward. I just hope its enough of a success to allow some major press and more market awareness to start the public pressure on government to allow use and allow patents. I still see the patent issue as being huge. This could hold back market activity as much as government red tape.

Rossi is a bit of a showman and will have something to intrigue the watchers, but like much of his publicity, it will produce as much speculation as to what it means.

Don’t know what will happen, put people comments and observations will be fun. Please add your expectations and observations.

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55 Responses to “1 M-Watt Running Commentary”

  1. Roger Bird Says:

    Tomorrow is the moment of truth. Will the world change tomorrow, or not?

  2. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    I bet Carlos Slim would be interested…if he knows about it.
    He knows how to deal with bureaucrats and patent offices.

  3. Roger Bird Says:

    The Rossi E-cat has been and will continue to be a slow acceptance by society because people do not want to look like fools, especially news people. Since I have no reputation to preserve, for me, it is a slow acceptance because I don’t want to be disappointed.

    Tomorrow is the BIG day. Tomorrow the world changes, or not.

  4. Bob Norman Says:

    Its midnight in the Pacific time zone so it should be 9AM in Italy. Hope to see a post before I go to bed. Have been looking around and don’t see anything yet.

  5. Dave Says:

    Everything I’ve seen about the E-Cat suggests that it’s fake. Rossi could have easily proven that it works by letting several university physics/engineering departments do their own independent tests of one E-Cat unit and publish the results. Instead of doing that Rossi set up those silly “demonstrations” in which there there wasn’t enough steam coming out of the unit to account for the alleged energy generation.

    I really hope I’m wrong because this would change the world for the better in ways we can’t imagine.

  6. Bob Norman Says:

    I was surprised to see the hit piece by Forbes after have such a positive article a week ago. The AP reporter is there today, that’s a plus if it goes well.

  7. brucefast Says:

    We are getting cryptic Italian tweets from: http://twitter.com/#%21/22passi
    My prediction, unfortunately, is that the best we can expect from today/tomorrow is a report that the customer has received the product. If the customer does receive the product we know that it outputs somewhere near 1mw with at least a 6 to 1 power gain. (I personally don’t understand 6 to 1 because self-sustain mode is effectively infinite gain — not quite because some energy goes into the “frequency generator”, but hundreds to one in any case.)

  8. brucefast Says:

    Remember, you can use google translate: http://translate.google.com/ to get to English.

  9. brucefast Says:

    At http://freeenergytruth.blogspot.com/ they are reporting that one reporter from AP newswire is there. This is a painfully small contingent of news sources, however, AP is big as they distribute their news to all sources.

    The amount of detail we get from this test will depend on this one report from AP. Hopefully this will mean that my prediction, “the best we can expect from today/tomorrow is a report that the customer has received the product” will be wrong.

  10. brucefast Says:

    Exciting!

    From Andrea Rossi (http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=516&cpage=4#comment-105244)

    FIRST INFORMATION REGARDING THE 1 MW PLANT TEST:
    WE SARTED REGULARLY THE TEST THIS MORNING . EVERYTHING IS GOING WELL SO FAR. THE 1 MW E-CAT IS WORKING IN SELF SUSTAINING.
    TONIGHT I WILL PUBLISH THE NON SECRET REPORT THAT THE CUSTOMER WILL RELEASE.
    WARM REGARDS, I HAVE TO RETURN TO THE PLANT. SORRY, I CANNOT ANSWER TO THE MANY COMMENTS I AM RECEIVING. I WILL PUBLISH THEM PROBABLY I WILL NEVER FIND THE TIME TO ANSWER.
    WARMEST REGARDS TO ALL,
    ANDREA ROSSI

  11. brucefast Says:

    I am reading “470 kW maintained continuously during self-sustain; customer satisfied; sale made; more later.” However, I cannot establish the source of this news. If the sale is made, it is EXCITING. Quite interesting though that the output is 50% of what was promised.

    • Roger Bird Says:

      Even if the output was 47% of what was advertised, if there is any significant output, it still means a whole new world. It means that we can get pretty close to free energy. It also means that there will be much more research with MUCH heavier funding.

      But, I hate to be an old anal retentive uptight a**hole, but I still await more confirmation.

    • brucefast Says:

      “Even if the output was 47% of what was advertised, if there is any significant output, it still means a whole new world.”

      I so agree! The acceptance criteria was 6 times more energy out than in. Watts be damned, if they achieve independently tested 6:1, it is a new world. We have the head of Peswiki declaring that they have done that.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        I am still skeptical. You are quoting people who don’t really know or who have an interest in it. I await further information. Unlike natural health products which I can test myself and for which I have learned who I can trust, the E-cat is mainly promoted by Rossi and discussed by those who don’t really know. I do know this, Rossi is finished if this is still a scam.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        That is impressive, but I hopefully await further information. As I told my 12 year old boy, it doesn’t hurt anyone if I am skeptical. If Rossi was dangling an E-Cat in front of my eyes right now for a mere $100, then being overly skeptical might be foolish. (:->) I am jazzed.

    • Jonathan Says:

      I’m interested to know what cooling systems they had in place. A 470kW heater inside a lab would make the room very hot, and it is a lot of heat to get rid of.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        The video camera peeked over a partition revealing a couple of devices which seemed to be outside the building. I seem to recall that the devices were called “dissipators”. Maybe that’s where the heat was sent.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Perhaps Rossi doesn’t give a fig what we think, but I need confirmation from an independent source. Rossi’s saying that an independent source confirmed does not count.

      • Jonathan Says:

        Let’s look at just how much heat we are talking about.

        An electric oven typically has a 3kW heating element. It also has a thermostat so it isn’t on all the time when it is cooking. Walk into an oven and you will find yourself cooked pretty quickly.

        The most efficient condensing boilers extract about 90% of the heat from the ignition source. That would mean 10% wasted heat. When you build a technology demonstration for a new fuel source, you tend not to worry about efficiency, that can come later. Also, the 470kW was the useful output from the ecat, the wasted heat would be in addition to that. We are looking at a minimum of 52kW of wasted heat at 90% efficiency, and about 1MW at 30% efficiency.

        Allowing for the fact that the shipping container and lab have a bigger volume than the inside of an oven, and the thermostat reduces the output of an oven to somewhat below 3kW once it reaches cooking temperature, we would expect that walking into this lab would be like walking into an oven. The fact that people were able to come out of the lab and tell us what they saw in there suggests it wasn’t. This http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Didcot_power_station.jpg is the sort of cooling you need for a 2MW power station, so scale it down accordingly. You are probably going to need at least two of those towers.

      • brucefast Says:

        If the water were simply put down the drain, the drainage system of the entire city of Bologna would have become the cooling system.

        Reality check here, top physicists who specialize in energy were in attendance. Do you really think there is a “no way” issue?

  12. brucefast Says:

    http://peswiki.com/index.php/News:October_28%2C_2011_Test_of_the_One_Megawatt_E-Cat

    “Q&A just finished; reading of results; 470 kW maintained continuously during self-sustain; customer satisfied; sale made; more later.”

    — SilverThunder 11:07, 28 October 2011 (PDT)

    SilverThunder is Sterling Allan, the founder of PES Network, Inc.
    He is likely in attendance at the demo, his information is probably first hand!

    This is an exciting day!

  13. brucefast Says:

    Another eyewitness confirmation: http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l@eskimo.com/msg53758.html

  14. Roger Bird Says:

    And God!!!!! You have no idea how much I want smug scientists to be kicked in their metaphorical nuts by Rossi. You have no idea how much I love scientific controversies. LOL!!!!

  15. Bob Norman Says:

    The system is divided into two 500 KW halves, someone asked if maybe only one half was run. That’s an interesting question.
    There were comments that the Units were leaking, so if that’s true it predicts real improvements for future products when new improved hardware is designed.

    This is so exciting!!!!

  16. Bob Says:

  17. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    I’m pretty confident that the concept is proven, but it doesn’t seem ready for the retail market.

    I think it’s gonna take an established manufacturer for that. Maybe Honda, Cat, Generac, AO Smith, or American Standard. My heating system in my Arkansas house is by Apollo Hydro, a division of State Industries, a major manufacturer of water heaters. It utilizes an oversized water heater, from which heated water is pumped through a radiator/heat exchanger, through-which forced air is circulated throughout the house. The same unit provides hot water. It is natgas fueled. It would seem that State/Apollo Hydro would be a natural Rossi customer. http://activerain.com/image_store/uploads/7/7/9/6/0/ar122599059006977.jpg

  18. brucefast Says:

    A report has been released: http://db.tt/wu4OLbgk It contains 3 photos of a contract with data handwritten in, and a spreadsheet of temperatures. The spreadsheet doesn’t mean lots as it only has time, temperature in and temperature out. Flow rates, however, are discussed in the photographs of the documents.

    Note on page2: Ratio between Energy produced and energy consumed (COP): 2635 : 0

    “The result of the test are satisfactory to accept delivery”

    This document has been signed off by an Ing Domenico Floravanti.

  19. Roger Bird Says:

    I am beginning to believe.

  20. Rockyspoon Says:

    It could be they tested the unit at 475 KW because of the leaks. A responsible engineer does NOT take it to design capacity when there’s a chance of a blowout with one of those leaky connections. They will undoubtedly run additional tests to iron out some of the problems I heard mention–primarily runaway reactions (perhaps because of the carryover heat from one e-cat unit to the next since I understand they are in series). There’s so many interrelated parameters that there’s literally years of testing ahead of them to optimize the procedures, reaction rates, flow rates, heat transfer rates, etc. etc.

    Lack of what some say is transparency or communication on Rossi’s part is, to me, a big factor in debunking this as a scam. Rossi’s interested in delivering units, not setting up “Kodak moments”. He’d be all over the press, pestering them for more and more attention if this were a scam, yet he does just the opposite. I get the impression he’s only trying to humor his business partner and mentor with the PR stuff–and Rossi knows that doesn’t make him any money. In fact, all it does is bring down the wrath of many interests in the world that do NOT want this to take off and destroy their cozy control of the energy markets.

    I say give ‘em hell, Rossi.

    • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

      Breakthrough? Yes, a scientific breakthrough. I doubt we’ll personally benefit for at least 5 years, more likely 10 years. Rossi has been working on this for years and he can’t pull off a trouble free demo on his big day. The crap about mass production in November is a dream.

      • Roger Bird Says:

        Iggy, I say that it will accelerate surprisingly fast, if Rossi’s business plan is smart.

      • brucefast Says:

        If you read http://nickelpower.org/2011/04/18/return-of-the-steam-car/ you will see that I have always figured it’ll take about 5 years to see the first retail cars. Heat systems will come sooner than that.

        If you read what Rossi recently said, he figures it’ll be about a year until you can buy a home heating system. However, in November he plans to market exactly what he sold today (with some fixes). What he is selling right now assumes that an engineer will be attached to the thing.

        This is far more than a scientific curiosity, but it won’t be seen at WalMart any time this year.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        His machine seems to require constant monitoring. Maybe that’s just because the customer wanted a prolonged self-sustaining mode. I would be leery of having an eCat waterheater in my home. Maybe 50 feet away in an outbuilding.

        A steam explosion is extremely destructive. I’m a former insurance agent. One of my clients had an oil fired waterheater explode in his home. It was a brick-veneer home and all 4 exterior brick walls blew down. The inner wood frame walls remained standing. The occupants were uninjured but were all about 1″ shorter after the explosion :>)

        “Cos he was going down a grade making 90 miles an hour,
        The whistle broke into a scream.
        He was found in the wreck with his hand on the throttle,
        Scalded to death by the steam.”

  21. Roger Bird Says:

    I was just watching a show on the Discovery Channel about insulation. I realized that if you own shares of an insulation company, now would be a good time to sell. Also, it would not be a good time to buy more insulation for your house. The usually amount is fine, but fretting about every little watt of heat will soon no longer be an issue. Do I sound like a believer? I think so.

  22. Roger Bird Says:

    I looked at the video for the second time. If Rossi is fooling people, he is also fooling himself because he acts like someone who more than believes in what he is doing; he takes for granted what he is doing. His personal presentation is very convincing. He is either RIGHT, or else he is psychotic.

    • brucefast Says:

      As one trained in psychology, I suggest that your diagnostic skill is either significantly beyond mine or overstated. I guess he could be psychotic, seeing data that isn’t there. However, many others have seen the data also. He could, I guess, be a psychopath (antisocial personality disorder, to be technical). Psychopaths are shockingly good at lying. However, if he is he has deceived a lot of very bright people. Its a bit hard at this point to imagine.

  23. Roger Bird Says:

    This is amazing. Even my family has absolutely no idea why I am excited about this. NO breakthrough like this has ever been documented so closely with eye-witnesses and video, despite the fact that Rossi is trying to keep the reporters out to some extent. I could daydream all day long about this and not really comprehend the full impact.

    It is time to sell your gold stocks, also. Who needs gold when industry will boom. Not only will we stop wasting time with alternative fuels, we can stop arguing about global warming and focus more attention on pollutants for which there is no arguments, like mercury, SO2, etc.

  24. Roger Bird Says:

    Human evil will not disappear. People will still argue about the death penalty, other forms of pollution, vaccinations, abortions, government spending, affirmative action, unemployment, etc. etc. etc. etc. In fact, it is possible that we will have even more government spending because people may get the idea that we are all so completely rich now. An economic sea change is on its way.

  25. brucefast Says:

    Roger, I see you have discovered that there are vistas of discovery that can be made just by realizing that the e-cat is for real. Check out http://nickelpower.org/ebook-format/ It is all of the posts on this site all on one page. You will discover that many of the thoughts you are having have been had by others. You will discover a lot that you haven’t thought of yet. And you will discover topics that you have a lot to add to.

    It is an exciting time.

  26. brucefast Says:

    Some reports:

    http://pesn.com/2011/10/28/9501940_1_MW_E-Cat_Test_Successful/

    and

    http://www.nyteknik.se/nyheter/energi_miljo/energi/article3303682.ece

    I like the PESN report a lot better than the nyteknik report.

  27. Bob Norman Says:

    I notice that they said the test was run with 100 E-Cats with each Unit containing 3 cores (300 cores total). This was double what I expected, I thought it was 50 or 52 E-Cats.
    They said because of “glitches” they had to throttle the power. I think it was only using 1 core in each machine. I wonder what he is struggling with. I think its controlling the reaction and think he doesn’t have enough automated controls in place.I’m curios what others think off this issue. If he was running at 1/3 power then that’s darn good!

  28. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    From Oct 29, WIRED-UK
    “NyTeknik did discover one possible clue to their identity. The customer’s controller, one Domenico Fioravanti, apparently reports to a man whose title is “Colonel”. This suggests that the mystery customer might be DARPA, the Pentagon’s extreme science wing which, as Wired.co.uk has previously noted, has expressed interestin Rossi’s work — but which might not be quite ready to explain to its political masters why it spent millions on a cold fusion device.”

    http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-10/29/rossi-success

    • Bob Norman Says:

      If he sold it to DARPA i’m disappointed! I was hoping for a regular business in a regular application. Penetrating the market place just took longer. The system will go into DARPA, never to be heard from again.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        Well, if he did sell it to DARPA, I doubt he gave them exclusive rights.
        Having said that, the US govt sometimes confiscates an invention and makes the patent secret.

        There’s lots of businessmen and scientists that use the title “Colonel”.

        I’ve got an old Marine Corps pilot-buddy in San Diego, Col “Ike”. He owns a patent development company (Raytheon is his jr partner). Col Ike holds several patents, mostly in field of electronics, chemistry, and software. Col Ike once described to me a simple over-unity experiment of his. It wasn’t sufficiently over-unity to be useful.

        BTW, Col Ike was awarded 2 Silver Stars for his service in Vietnam.

    • Jonathan Says:

      It is very common for investors to use code names in cases like this, so I don’t think the word Colonel means anything. If it does, it is more likely to refer to Kentucky Fried Chicken than to the military.

  29. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    Well, let’s see…there’s Col Sanders, Col Oliver North, Col Gaddafi,
    Col Tom Parker.

  30. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    Sounding more like ‘Jack T’ might have been right when he speculated that NewEra Energy was or will be an eCat customer. Jack T pointed out that NewEra had a presence in Miami, Boston, & Manchester, NH, all of which Rossi identified as his production locations.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    1MW eCat Customer Coal Power Link?
    November 13, 2011 | Author: admin

    The following post from AR’s blog seems to imply that the 1st 1MW customer has an interest in using the eCat as a substitute for coal in power generation. That does not do much for our guesses to-date. Of course, the customer could be a research facility or even NI (if it had not ruled itself out). This should get our collective minds working hard. What do you guys think?

    Bernie Koppenhofer
    November 13th, 2011 at 9:29 AM

    Mr Rossi: Recently you were asked if the E-Cat could replace the coal fired turbines in coal power plants, your reply was “We are working on it, it will be possible, yes.” Can you give us any kind of time frame for when this will be possible? Are you giving this development top priority?

    This development alone could create an economic boom, which the whole world needs desperately.

    Andrea Rossi
    November 13th, 2011 at 9:34 AM

    Dear Bernie Koppenhofer:
    Yes, we are working on this issue with the same Customer that made the test of October 28th and I am totally sure that we will be able to accomplish this target in matter of less than 2 years.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

    http://ecatnews.com/

  31. Bob Norman Says:

    To me a natural customer would be GE or Westinghouse, both involved in Turbines. A power company might be a good guess, but nothing obvious comes to mind being it was to start with an “N”.
    I just hope someone out their has enough time and energy to see if they can track the container coming off the ship. A little detective work could go a long way.

  32. Iggy Dalrymple Says:

    “but nothing obvious comes to mind being it was to start with an “N”.”

    Nucor is one of the nation’s largest steel makers and one of the largest energy users. Nucor primarily recycles steel scrap and electric arc furnaces to melt the scrap. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nucor

    • Bob Norman Says:

      Thanks for enlightening me. I had no idea Nucor was that big. They were a fuzzy company doing something with steel. That’s a very good guess. They have all the requirements for someone that should have strong interest.

      • Iggy Dalrymple Says:

        I doubt that Nucor is the purchaser but it is a plausible “N” company with a big appetite for energy.

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